MNI Global Week Ahead - US GDP/PCE + RBNZ, BOK, NBH and SARB
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week.
TUESDAY/FRIDAY - Eurozone Country Flash CPI Releases
France starts the round of May preliminary HICP readings much earlier than the other key Eurozone countries this month, on Tuesday before Germany, Italy and Spain are all released on Friday. The Eurozone-wide release then follows the next Tuesday (Jun 3). Focus will continue to be on services, especially after an Easter effect likely played a large role in pushing up services inflation to 3.98% Y/Y in April for technically (by one hundredth) the fastest since Aug 2024. The reverse of that Easter effect meant that March had seen a more pronounced moderation to 3.45% Y/Y, having been 3.68% Y/Y in February. ECB rhetoric continues to expect services disinflation ahead, most recently from ECB Chief Economist Lane on Friday.
WEDNESDAY - Australia CPI
April Australian CPI is released on May 28 and will be watched closely for signs that it is moderating towards the RBA's downwardly-revised Q2 forecasts. Both headline and the underlying trimmed mean were unchanged in March at 2.4% y/y and 2.7% respectively, with the latter printing around this mark for the fourth straight month. As April is the first month of the quarter, there will be limited services component updates. The RBA is projecting Q2 CPI inflation at 2.1% and 2.6% respectively. Headline will continue to be impacted by government electricity rebates until year end.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision
The RBNZ decision is announced on May 28 and it is likely to cut rates by 25bp to 3.25% bringing total easing this cycle to 225bp. Data have generally been consistent with a gradual but soft recovery in activity but with signs of a pickup in inflation. The RBNZ is likely to monitor the latter but not be too concerned as indicators are consistent with inflation remaining within the 1-3% band. The central bank will also release an updated set of forecasts which are likely to show softer NZ GDP driven by weaker trading-partner growth due to recent global uncertainty. The CPI inflation trajectory and OCR path will remain in focus.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision
The BOK meets next week on the 29th to decide on interest rates. At their last meeting in April the BOK surprised many market observers with no change, yet those who expected to cut then have seemingly pushed their rate cut call out to May. The bond market has been volatility in recent days, spurred on by the volatility in treasuries with 5-7bps daily moves in the front end. As one of the highest correlated markets to the US, the Korean bond markets typically is impacted by treasury moves. Since the last BOK meeting the Won has gained over 3% and foreign flows into the equity market are in excess of US$800m. Data continues to be mixed with the export numbers for March stronger than expected (likely due to front loading) but the first 20-days of May very weak. The Q1 GDP contraction of -0.1% YoY, -0.2% QoQ is the most concerning and enough we think to underwrite a cut from the BOK at the meeting next week.
THURSDAY - US GDP (Upward?) Revisions To Q1
The week’s US data is backloaded, with the second GDP/PCE release for Q1 on Thursday before Friday’s PCE report for April. Real GDP growth surprised with -0.3% annualized in last month’s advance release for Q1, as whilst it appeared close to the -0.2% consensus, it was better than the -0.8% median from 26 analysts who had updated forecasts following March advance trade data just a day beforehand plus the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow of -1.5%. Large swings in trade and inventories in Q1 on tariff front-running has made it harder to get a sense of underlying momentum in the economy. However, one notable finding in the advance release was that final private domestic purchases was robust at 3.0% annualized in Q1 after 2.95% in Q4 and an average 3.0% in 2024. It was helped by a surge in non-residential investment (9.8%, adding 1.3pp to GDP growth) plus consumption growth at a softer but still relatively healthy 1.8% vs an expected 1.2%. This of course was likely boosted by tariff front-running as well. Powell at this month’s FOMC press conference said he expects it'll turn out consumer spending and inventories were higher.
FRIDAY - US Monthly PCE Report For April
Friday’s PCE report will then offer a first look at broad consumer behavior in April after the pulling forward of spending before the touted reciprocal tariffs. Control group retail sales disappointed in April at a nominal -0.2% M/M (cons 0.3) after 0.5% M/M in March. Consumer sentiment indicators have been particularly weak in recent months but it hasn’t translated to hard data to date (there has “not been a strong like at all” in Powell’s words). Powell did however offer a dovish caveat that “we haven’t had a move of this speed and size [in consumer sentiment]. So it wouldn’t be the case that we are looking at this and just completely dismissing. But it’s another reason to wait and see.” Another month without meaningful weakness in hard data would likely further bolster the FOMC’s belief that there isn’t a rush to cut rates. On the inflation side, CPI and PPI details point to subdued core PCE inflation, with unrounded estimates averaging 0.13% M/M in April. It follows what is currently just 0.03% M/M in March but which is likely to be revised solidly higher.
EM
TUESDAY - NBH Decision
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate on hold at 6.50% again this month, despite a further slowdown in headline inflation in April. Comments from central bank officials continue to indicate that it is highly unlikely that any changes will be made to the Bank’s hawkish guidance either, with officials committed to anchoring inflation expectations.
THURSDAY - SARB Decision
There lacks clear consensus over the outcome of the SARB rate decision. The inflation outlook remains relatively benign, but policymakers may choose to err on the side of caution and keep rates unchanged against potential upside risks posed by the uncertain global risk backdrop.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 25/05/2025 | 1840/1440 |  US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell Baccalaureate Remarks | |
| 26/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 26/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 26/05/2025 | 1320/1520 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde On Europe's Role In A Fragmented World | |
| 27/05/2025 | 2301/0001 | * |  GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | * |  DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/05/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 27/05/2025 | 0800/0400 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 27/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27/05/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 27/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 27/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 28/05/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 28/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 28/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 28/05/2025 | 0200/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 28/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/05/2025 | 0600/1400 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 28/05/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 28/05/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 28/05/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 28/05/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 28/05/2025 | 0800/0400 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 28/05/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 28/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 28/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 28/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 28/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 28/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 28/05/2025 | 0000/2000 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Current account |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 29/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 29/05/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 29/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 29/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 29/05/2025 | 2000/1600 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 30/05/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 30/05/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 30/05/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/05/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 29/05/2025 | 0025/2025 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 30/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/05/2025 | 0630/0730 | GB | DMO to release FQ2 (Jul-Sep) issuance ops calendar | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 30/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/05/2025 | 1000/1200 | ** | IT | PPI |
| 30/05/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 30/05/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 30/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 30/05/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
