EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: US Equity Futures Continue To Push Higher

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
DEFENCE (BBC): “The Ministry of Defence (MoD) will spend more than £1bn to develop technology to speed up decisions on the battlefield.”
EU
GERMANY (POLITICO): “Germany's new coalition committee met for the first time on Wednesday and agreed a work program to deal with budgetary and other key issues before the summer break. "By the middle of the year, everyone should be able to see that Germany is making progress," states a paper published by the ruling parties. "We will lay the foundations by swiftly adopting the 2025 and 2026 budgets and making significant investments."
GERMANY (DW): “For Germany's new foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, building a good relationship with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio couldn't be more important.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has told Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky that Berlin will help Kyiv produce long-range missiles to defend itself from Russian attack. "We want to talk about production and we will not publicly discuss details," he said, when asked by reporters in Berlin if Germany would supply Kyiv with its Taurus missiles.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “Donald Trump says American efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to peace are going “fine,” but appears cognizant that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be only pretending to engage in good faith. “We’ll find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not and if he is, we’ll respond a little bit differently but it will take about a week and a half to two weeks.”
PORTUGAL (BBG): “During Portugal’s recent election campaign, far-right Chega leader Andre Ventura argued that the two centrist parties that have ruled the nation for half a century have failed to increase living standards, control immigration and end systemic corruption.”
US
TARIFFS (MNI BRIEF): The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that President Donald Trump's April 2 tariffs superseded his executive authority and sidelined Congress, a key setback to the administration's agenda that adds a new layer of uncertainty into an already clouded economic outlook.
TARIFFS (RTRS): “A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect, ruling that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy.”
TECH (BBG): “Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang soothed investor fears about a China slowdown by delivering a solid sales forecast, saying that the AI computing market is still poised for “exponential growth.””
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve officials believe they can take their time in assessing the effects of fluid tariff policies, though they fear larger-than-expected tariffs will raise inflation and hurt employment, according to minutes of their May meeting released Wednesday.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve officials say the benefits of the 2020 shift to a flexible average inflation targeting framework have diminished and are looking at a strategy of flexible inflation targeting, according to minutes of the May Fed meeting released Wednesday.
GOVERNMENT (RTRS): “Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk is leaving the Trump administration after leading a tumultuous efficiency drive, during which he upended several federal agencies, but ultimately failed to deliver the generational savings he had sought.”
US/CHINA (RTRS): “U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday the United States will start "aggressively" revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.”
US/CHINA (BBG): “The Trump administration is moving to restrict the sale of chip design software to China, people familiar with the matter said, as the US government evaluates a broader policy announcement on the issue.”
US/CHINA (NYT): “President Trump has stopped some critical products and technologies made only in the United States from flowing to China, flexing the government’s power over global supply chains.”
OTHER
CANADA (MNI INTERVIEW): Alberta Pipeline Dream Hurt By Separation Talk
SOUTH KOREA (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Korea on Thursday decided to lower the base rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on the back of growing concern over slower economy caused by weak domestic demand and exports, driven by U.S. trade policy, Yonhap News Agency reported.
CHINA
DEPOSIT RATES (CSJ): “Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates by more than the 10-basis-point decline in Loan Prime Rates last week, following similar moves by larger institutions, China Securities Journal reported, citing analysts who noted the cuts were likely to help protect net interest margin.”
CAR SALES (CPCA): “China's passenger car retail sales reached 1.3 million units between May 1-25, up 16% y/y and 9% m/m, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY111.5 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY266 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY111.5 billion after offsetting the maturities of CNY154.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1907 Thurs; +0.75% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1907 on Thursday, compared with 7.1894 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2045 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT -0.1% Q/Q; EST. +0.5%; Q4 +0.2%
AUSTRALIA Q1 PLANT/MACHINERY CAPEX -1.3% Q/Q, S/ADJ; Q4 -0.6%
AUSTRALIA Q1 BUILDING CAPEX +0.9% Q/Q, S/ADJ; Q4 +1.0%
NEW ZEALAND MAY ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 36.6; APR. 49.3
NEW ZEALAND MAY ANZ BUSINESS ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 34.8; APR. 47.7
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Extend Higher
The TYM5 range has been 109-27+ to 110-07+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-01, down 0-06 from the previous close.
JGBS: Cheaper With US Tsys, Nvidia Beats & Trump Tariff Uncertainty
JGB futures are stronger, +12 compared to settlement levels, hovering near Tokyo session highs.
AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Weaker Despite Weaker Capex, Trump Tariff HLs In Focus
ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -3.0) are holding in negative territory.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Bear-Flattener But Off Worst Levels
NZGBs closed showing a bear-flattener, with yields 2-6bps higher. NZGBs did, however, finish off the session’s worst levels.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Correction Extends In Asia
The BBDXY has had a range of 1219.81 - 1225.58 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1223. Ben Hunt on X: “The initial USD positive reaction to the tariff block is weird to me. Either the Supreme Court reverses the trade court ruling and we’re back to where we were (only worse) or they don’t reverse and Trump initiates the biggest constitutional crisis of the past 70 years. Both are intensely USD negative. https://x.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1927912996174549490
Data/Events : Spain Retail Sales, Italy Consumer Confidence & Industrial Sales
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JPY: Asia Wrap - The Correction Testing The 146.00 Resistance
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.76 - 146.28, Asia is currently trading around 145.70. USD/JPY stayed well supported all through our day, what looks like overextended positioning is being challenged.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.00($2.14b), 143.00($1.98b), 144.00($1.67b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 143.00($3.34b May 30), 140.00($2.78b May 30).
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
NZD: Asia Wrap - Can't Ignore The USD Strength
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5925 - 0.5977 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5940. The NZD has fallen pretty hard in our session as it seems to be catching up to the general USD move. It seemed to brush off the USD strength overnight but the extension this morning looked like risk moving higher was a bridge too far.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0764 - 1.0821, currently trading 1.0815. NZD looks to have played catch up in Asia this morning. A top looks to have been put in place now just above 1.0900, the market will have been looking for a more dovish tone from the RBNZ yesterday and AUD/NZD should now see supply on bounces. The first target is around 1.0650.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD Outperforms In The Crosses
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6407 - 0.6436 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6425. The AUD has outperformed in the crosses retracing some of its recent moves.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 92.98 - 93.87, it is trading currently around 93.60. The pair has surged this morning above the 93.00 area that has capped price in the last couple of days. If this break is sustained and risk holds onto its gains it implies this pair can once again head higher with the focus turning back towards the 96.00 area.
Fig 1: AUD/JPY spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA STOCKS: Mostly Higher, Led By Tech Plays Post Nvidia & Tariff News
Regional Asia Pac equity markets are mostly tracking higher. Several positives are in play, with positive spill over evident from US equity futures. Late Wednesday in the US we had Nvidia results, which were better than expected and renewed tech/AI optimism. This helped US equity futures re-open higher. Not long after headlines crossed that the US trade court had ruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs were illegal.
OIL: US Court Tariff Ruling Eases Oil’s Demand Worries, EIA Data Out Later
Crude is up sharply during today’s APAC session following a rise of around 1.5% yesterday. News that the US Court of International Trade blocked most of the proposed tariffs saying that the President had overstepped his authority has boosted risk appetite and driven a relief rally in oil prices. The market had been concerned that increased protectionism would weigh on global energy demand. The USD index is up 0.2% after 0.3% on Wednesday.
Gold Breaks Below Support As Risk Sentiment Improves
Gold is down 0.4% to $3274/oz during Thursday’s APAC trading after falling 0.4% yesterday. It has been pressured by the stronger US dollar (USD BBDXY +0.3%), higher US yields and better risk appetite after robust Nvidia earnings and news that a US Court of International Trade blocked most of the proposed tariffs saying that the President had overstepped his authority. The administration has appealed the decision but for now it looks like tariffs may be on hold beyond July 8, which has reduced safe-haven interest in gold.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0900/1000 | BOE's Breeden opening remarks at conference on non-bank financial sector and financial stability | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Current account | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Payroll employment | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | NAR Pending Home Sales | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1445/1545 | BOE's Saporta panellist on hedge funds' role in recent crises | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1500/1600 | BOE's Bailey speech and fireside chat at Irish IAIM Dinner | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 2000/1600 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
| 30/05/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | Tokyo CPI | |
| 30/05/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | Labor Force Survey | |
| 30/05/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 30/05/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | Retail Sales (p) | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0025/2025 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 30/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | Building Approvals | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | Retail Trade | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | GDP | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Import/Export Prices | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0630/0730 | DMO to release FQ2 (Jul-Sep) issuance ops calendar | ||
| 30/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | M3 | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | GDP (f) | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Bavaria CPI | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | |
| 30/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1000/1200 | ** | PPI | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined | |
| 30/05/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | MNI Chicago PMI |