OIL: US Court Tariff Ruling Eases Oil’s Demand Worries, EIA Data Out Later

USD/CNH sits a touch up from session lows. We were last near 7.2740, against earlier lows of 7.2692. Still, CNH is up close to 0.15%, while onshore spot has risen close to 0.20% and tracks near similar levels to USD/CNH. This is outperforming the stronger USD trend against the majors so far today. The BBDXY index is up around 0.20%. 

• For USD/CNH technicals we are close to the 100-day EMA, while further south is the 200-day at 7.2535.
• BBG reported that a survey of exporters pointed to a greater conversion of earnings back into local currency (see this link). Also note that the holiday period kicks off this Thursday and runs through to next Monday (the Labor day holiday period). Such flows may also be more prominent near end April as well.
• In the cross asset space, equity sentiment is very steady, the CSI 300 remaining sub 3800 at this stage.
• Tomorrow, we get the PMI prints, with market expectations skewed towards weaker prints. 

• New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh is running in third place in his own riding according to Elections Canada data as of 12:35am EST Tuesday.
• Data shows Singh with about 4K votes, Conservative candidate with 8.4K and Liberal Wade Chang with 9.3K votes, with 48% of polls reporting.
• NDP reduced to seven seats in preliminary polling, short of what's needed to be an official party in the House of Commons. 

• Gold finished the US trading session higher by +0.73% at YS$3,343.98, having been as low as $3,268.23 earlier in the day yet couldn’t hold onto those gains during the Asian trading day dropping back to $3,314.40.
• The overnight move had been supported by a weaker USD and weaker than expected data.  
• The Dallas Fed. Manufacturing Activity fell to its lowest in 5 years with survey respondents showing executives describing the current situation as chaos as supply line disruptions decimate activity.
• This has reduced expectations for Wednesday’s data which sees employment data, inflation and growth.
• Gold had started the week in the Asian trading session on the back foot, trending downwards before the Texas data which has refocused attention on the possibility that already the trade war may be showing up in US data.