Fig 1: Korean Consumer Confidence Rises to its Highest Since 2017 on Fiscal and Monetary Policy Intervention.
UK
POLITICS (BBC): “Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has made Sir James Cleverly her shadow housing secretary as part of a reshuffle of her senior team. … Badenoch had been poised to make small changes to her frontbench team to replace the shadow ministers who wanted to step down for personal reasons. The Tory leader opted for a bigger shake-up, making about half a dozen changes.”
EU
EU (POLITICO): “Greece has presented other EU governments with what it called its strictest plan to deter migrants and is pushing for “return hubs” outside the continent.”
UKRAINE (BBG): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy approved a law to strip anti-corruption agencies of their powers despite opposition, triggering the first outbreak of popular discontent against his leadership since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.”
UKRAINE (ECONOMIST): “Another round of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia could take place on Wednesday in Istanbul. Ukraine’s president, Volodomyr Zelensky, announced the meeting on Monday; Russia, though, seemed surprised.”
SPAIN (BBG): “Spain’s Parliament blocked a set of key rules approved by the government following the nationwide blackout in April. The rules gave the country’s competition authority, CNMC, more powers to supervise private operators’ management of electricity voltage. They also included resilience measures, with a budget of €750 million ($881 million) and an estimated annual savings of €200 million once implemented.”
POLAND (ECONOMIST): “Mr Tusk promised a “new opening” in June. He is expected to announce a government restructuring on Wednesday. Ministers will be demoted and ministries merged.”
US
US/JAPAN (BBG): “ President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that will impose 15% tariffs on US imports from the country, including its auto sector, while creating a $550 billion fund backed by the Japanese to make investments in America.”
FED (BBG): “ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered support for Jerome Powell amid regular attacks from Trump administration officials, saying he sees no reason for the Federal Reserve chair to step down.”
OTHER
BOC (MNI INTERVIEW): Surge Pricing Mandate would Aid BOC. dding an emergency surge pricing mechanism that allows for temporary overshooting of the inflation target to next year's Bank of Canada mandate review would improve transparency and public support in case of another stumbling block similar to the pandemic, former BOC adviser and St. Louis Fed economist David Andolfatto told MNI.
Trade Deal (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney used some of his most skeptical language to date about reaching a U.S. trade deal by Aug. 1, when President Donald Trump says he will impose 35% tariffs.
JAPAN (MNI): Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida stated on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain its approach of gradually raising the policy interest rate, citing persistently low real interest rates. However, he offered no guidance on the timing or pace of future rate hikes, citing elevated levels of uncertainty.
JAPAN (MAINICHI/BBG): “ Embattled Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has decided to disclose his plans to step down by August given the results of the upper house election, according to the Mainichi newspaper.”
JAPAN (BBG): “Japan’s 40-year government bond auction saw its weakest demand since 2011 amid concerns over government spending and after the US and Japan reached a trade deal.”
CHINA
Equity Markets (China Daily): Global Investors More Bullish on Chinese Assets. “China's capital markets are gaining increasing traction among global investors as foreign investment surged back in the first half of this year, supported by the country's economic resilience, continuing opening-up policies and growing demand for more diversified and renminbi-denominated assets, officials and experts said on Tuesday.”
FDI(China Daily): Innovation, solid supply chain attracting FDI. “China will remain a vital innovation hub and manufacturing base for foreign corporations despite global economic uncertainty, said government officials and business leaders. They noted that foreign firms are maintaining deep engagement with the Chinese market, capitalizing on their technological expertise alongside China's well-developed industrial and supply chains — a synergy that enhances operational efficiency, fosters innovation and strengthens supply chain resilience.”
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY369.6 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY150.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY369.6 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY520.1 billion today, according to Wind Information
The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4370% at 09:55 am local time from the close of 1.4741% on Tuesday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 50 on Tuesday, compared with the close of 47 on Monday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1414 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1460 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1612 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA WESTPAC JUNE LEADING INDICATOR -0.03% M/M; MAY +0.05%
SOUTH KOREA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE +110.8; PRIOR +108.7
The TYU5 range has been 111-06 to 111-10+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 111-07, down 0-06 from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield has edged higher trading around 3.844%, up 0.01 from its close.
The US 10-year yield has moved higher trading around 4.365%, up 0.02 from its close.
The 10-year yield has moved back towards its pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%, expect supply around 4.30/35% first up. A close back below 4.30% would begin to get the bulls excited once more and the chopfest within the range will continue.
Nick Timiraos on X: Goldman: "Market participants seem to agree that the risk to Fed independence is rising, as 5-year 5-year forward inflation swaps have recently decoupled higher from their prior close relationship with the 2-year note yield."
Bloomberg - “Lawrence Summers backed Scott Bessent’s questioning of the Fed’s non-monetary policy activities, saying that there were some areas that are distinct from the broader issue of central bank independence.”
Jeff Weniger on X: “Understand this and you'll be ahead of 99% of the public on official inflation dynamics. Similar to work by my WisdomTree colleague @JeremyDSchwartz, we see that the CPI for rent is still playing catch-up after the Covid money splash. The CPI reports of 2025 are overstating rent and will continue to do so until the catch-up is complete.” See Graph Below.
Data/Events: MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales
JGB futures are sharply lower, -79 compared to settlement levels, but off the session’s worst levels.
Today's focus has been on the US-JN trade deal. Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US, which is lower than the 25% rate that had been threatened.
Kelly Eckhold (Westpac) on LinkedIn: "Trump trade deals progressing. Japan interestingly opens up the rice market in exchange for their tariff being reduced to 15%. That's a huge change for Japan, where rice imports have not been allowed."
Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest rally.
Cash JGBs are 4-8bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the benchmark 40-year yield underperforming after today's supply.
Demand for today’s 40-year bond issuance was weak, with the high yield clearing well above dealer expectations. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipated a yield of 3.35%, while the actual result came in at 3.375%. The auction’s cover ratio also declined to 2.1273x from 2.2114x at the previous issuance.
Swap rates are 4-7bps higher, led by the belly of the curve. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs (P).
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +1.5) are slightly stronger but off Sydney session bests.
Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest rally.
Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -8bps.
The AOFM announced that the issue by syndication of the new 4.25% 21 October 2036 Treasury Bond has been priced at a yield to maturity of 4.36 per cent. The issue size is $16 billion in face value terms. There was a total of $61.9 billion of bids at the final clearing price.
(Bloomberg) -- Australia's economy will expand 0.5% in 2Q, according to the latest median estimate from a Bloomberg News survey conducted from July 17 to July 22.
The bills strip is slightly mixed.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 100% probability, with a cumulative 65bps of easing priced by year-end.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs (P) and a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, titled `The RBA’s Dual Mandate - Inflation and Employment' at the Anika Foundation.
NZGBs closed showing a twist-flattener, with benchmark yields 1bp higher to 2bps lower.
Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest rally.
Today’s focus has been on the US-JN trade deal. Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to US Trump notes. This is lower than the 25% rate which had been threatened.
(Bloomberg) -- RBNZ publishes new residential mortgage lending data for June, on its website. Lending to all borrowers NZ$8.26b, Gains 47% y/y, Increases 3.5% m/m after seasonal adjustment: RBNZ.
Satish Ranchhod (Westpac) on LinkedIn: "Inflation in New Zealand has picked up to 2.7%, and it's on course to rise back up to around 3% by the end of this year, it's a mixed picture under the surface.”
Swap rates closed flat to 2bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 21bps of easing is priced for August, with a cumulative 37bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see a speech from the RBNZ's Conway on tariffs and the economy.
Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.0% May-54 bond.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1195.19 - 1197.06 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1196, +0.05%. The USD again fell very easily overnight, aided by the move lower in US yields. The market is much more comfortable selling USD’s, while below 1220 rallies should continue to find supply. What stands out overnight though is the USD could not move higher while the risk of Powell being removed hung over its head, last night both Trump and Bessent pulled back from that scenario and intimated Powell would complete his term. US yields have moved lower as a result taking the USD with it, does that mean the USD now goes down in all scenarios ?
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1731 - 1.1749, Asia is currently trading 1.1735. The pair bounced off its first support around the 1.1600 area. The price still looks a little stretched in the short term, first support around 1.1550/1600 then more importantly the 1.1450 area.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3517 - 1.3535, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3525. The support around 1.3350/1.3400 has proved to be solid first up. Bounces back towards 1.3500/1.3550 should now see offers initially. While the support holds the market will be encouraged to continue to play from the long side.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1592 - 7.1727, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1414, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1600. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2000 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2000 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 146.20 - 147.20, Asia is currently trading around 147.00, +0.25%. USD/JPY continues to frustrate the market and has given back a large portion of its recent gains, around 250 points in 2 days. The move lower in US yields is providing serious headwinds for the pair and the USD seems to be floundering in all scenarios. We are probing the first support around 146.50 this morning where some demand should be seen first up as the market digests the trade deal with the US, next level is the pivotal 144.00/145.00 area.
Kelly Eckhold(Westpac) on LinkedIn: “Trump trade deals progressing. Japan interestingly opens up the rice market in exchange for their tariff being reduced to 15%. That’s a huge change for Japan where rice imports have not been allowed.”
"ISHIBA: DEAL WON'T SACRIFICE JAPAN AGRICULTURE AT ALL, WILL INCREASE US RICE IMPORTS WITHIN EXISTING BRACKET" - BBG
MNI: BOJ's Uchida - Gradual Rate Hike, But No Pace Signalling. TOKYO - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida stated on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain its approach of gradually raising the policy interest rate, citing persistently low real interest rates. However, he offered no guidance on the timing or pace of future rate hikes, citing elevated levels of uncertainty.
JAPAN Local Media States PM Ishiba To Resign In August : Headlines have crossed from local newspaper Mainichi that PM Ishiba will resign by the end of August. Via Rtrs: "Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made up his mind to resign, Mainichi newspaper reported on Wednesday." A later headline from the Yomiuri newspaper reported he may announce resignation as soon as this month.
"JAPAN 40-YEAR BOND BID-COVER RATIO 2.13 VS 12-MONTH AVG 2.48, SALE DRAWS WEAKEST DEMAND RATIO SINCE 2011, BOND FUTURES HOLD LOSS AFTER 40-YEAR DEBT AUCTION" - BBG
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 146.00($734m), 148.00($902m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 147.50($1.5b July 24), 145.00($1.15bm July 25) - BBG.
CFTC data shows Asset managers starting to reduce JPY longs more aggressively +71610, while leveraged funds have started to build into a new short JPY position -12606.
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6548 - 0.6569 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6565, +0.15%. The pair pushed higher in the New York session as the USD came back under pressure with US yields pushing lower. The follow through below 0.6500 was quite disappointing for AUD shorts but with Stocks making new highs and risk outperforming, it makes it a hard environment for AUD/USD to collapse in. The pair looks to be consolidating in a 0.6450 - 0.6600 range as the market awaits a catalyst to provide clearer direction.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Westpac Lead Indicator Signals Around Trend Growth. The Westpac lead indicator for June fell 0.03% m/m following an upwardly-revised 0.05% rise. The 6-month rate, which leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months, is hovering just above zero signalling that growth is likely to return to around trend towards year end. Westpac believes that sluggish growth and the Q2 CPI outcome on July 30 will enable the RBA to cut 25bp on August 12 but it will maintain a “gradual easing cycle”.
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economy will expand 0.5% in 2Q, according to the latest median estimate from a Bloomberg News survey conducted from July 17 to July 22.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6525(AUD603m), 0.6500(AUD445m), 0.6580(AUD403m) . Upcoming Close Strikes : none - BBG
CFTC Data shows Asset managers have maintained their shorts -38267, the Leveraged community added slightly to their shorts to -20048.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 95.85 - 96.55, it is trading currently around 96.45, +0.35%. The pair continued to trade heavily overnight. The support has held between 95.00 - 96.00, demand has materialized first up, and the trade deal between the US and Japan should provide it with some tailwinds initially.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5985 - 0.6014 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6015, +0.20%. The pair had a decent move higher in the New York session as the USD came back under pressure with US yields pushing lower. Depending what your view is this 0.6020/0.6050 area looks an attractive fade, the danger though is the USD which is looking sickly once more and should it capitulate the NZD could build momentum higher again. Price will need a sustained break back above the 0.6025/50 area to signal a potential base might be in place.
Satish Ranchhod(Westpac) on LinkedIn: “Inflation in New Zealand has picked up to 2.7%, and it’s on course to rise back up to around 3% by the end of this year, it’s a mixed picture under the surface. With softness in demand, we are seeing lower inflation in parts of the domestic economy, especially the housing sector. However, we’re continuing to see large increases in administered prices like council rates and electricity charges. At the same time, import prices are starting to push higher again. We continue to expect another 25bp cut from the RBNZ in August. However, with headline inflation pushing higher, the RBNZ will be cautious about the extent and timing of any further rate cuts.”.
(Bloomberg) -- RBNZ publishes new residential mortgage lending data for June, on its website. Lending to all borrowers NZ$8.26b, Gains 47% y/y, Increases 3.5% m/m after seasonal adjustment: RBNZ.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6010(NZD302m July 24). - BBG
CFTC Data shows Asset Managers slightly reduced their newly built longs in NZD +8192, the Leveraged community has continued to reduce their shorts last week -6744.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0915 - 1.0940, currently trading 1.0920. The cross moved higher in response to the NZ CPI. Dips back to 1.0850/1.0900 should continue to find support as the pair tries to build momentum to move higher.
Japan stocks are the standout, as headlines cross of a US-Japan trade deal, which will see the reciprocal tariff rate set at 15%. This includes the important auto sector as well. Benchmark Japan indices were last up +3%. US equity futures have edged higher, but Eminis are only +0.20% firmer at this stage. EU stock futures are doing better, last around 1.15% higher for Euro Stoxx.
The trade deal is seen as a win for Japan, particularly the 15% auto tariff (after 25% was threatened by US President Trump). Other details include $550bn of Japan investment into the US, although specific projects/timelines for this weren't apparent. Headlines also crossed that PM Ishiba plans to resign in August, which gave markets another leg higher. This could prompt further fiscal support for the economy. The Topix is up over 3%, last above 2925, which is fresh highs back to July last year. The auto and transport sub index is up close to 10%.
China and Hong Kong stocks continue to rally as well. The HSI is up over 1%, while the CSI 300 has gained close to 0.75%, putting the index near 4150. General positive sentiment around US-China trade/relations is aiding sentiment. US Tsy Secretary Bessent will meet China officials in Stockholm next week, with the aim of extending the trade truce and expanding talks. US President Trump also stated overnight he may meet China President XI in the not too distant future (per BBG).
Taiwan markets are firmer, the Taiex up over 1.10%, but South Korea's market has struggled for positive momentum as it can't sustain moves above 3200.
In SEA, Thailand stocks are up strongly, last over +2% firmer, putting the index comfortably above the 1200 level. Indonesian stocks are also higher, along with other bourses in the region.
While oil markets are off their highs following the announcement of a US-Japan trade deal, they are still up today but continue to range trade. WTI is 0.4% higher at $65.54/bbl after reaching $65.82 earlier, while Brent is +0.3% to $68.77/bbl following a peak of $69.10. The USD index is slightly higher.
US imports from Japan, including autos, will face a 15% tariff down from the 24% announced in April but higher than the current average below 5%. This lower rate is in exchange for $550bn of Japanese investment in the US.
Attention remains on negotiations with the EU and China. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet China officials in Stockholm next week with the aim of extending the current hold on tariffs beyond August 12. The talks may also include China’s continued consumption of Russian and Iranian crude.
Industry-based data showed a small US crude inventory drawdown with a larger one for gasoline but distillate was higher. The official EIA data is out later today and while the supply/demand balance remains a concern is likely to be a focus.
Malaysia has decided not to cut fuel subsidies and the price of RON95 fuel will actually fall to MYR 1.99/L as part of a package to support households.
Later June US existing home sales and preliminary July euro area consumer confidence print.
Gold prices have trended moderately lower today following the conclusion of a trade deal between Japan and the US lifting optimism that others, especially the EU and China, may also be able to reach an agreement before August 1. Bullion had a strong start to the week rising almost 2.5% over Monday/Tuesday. Today it is down 0.2% to $3423.6/oz but off the intraday low of $3419.27 with the BBDXY USD index and US yields slightly higher.
Gold continues to be supported by concerns over Fed independence.
Silver is also lower at -0.1% to $39.25 after rising to $39.38 but off today’s low of $39.13. It was up almost 3% over Monday/Tuesday.
US imports from Japan, including autos, will face a 15% tariff down from the 24% announced in April but higher than the current average below 5%. This lower rate is in exchange for $550bn of Japanese investment in the US.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet China officials in Stockholm next week with the aim of extending the current hold on tariffs.
The US-Japan trade deal has driven an improvement in risk appetite with equities higher (Nikkei +3.2%, Hang Seng +1.1% & S&P e-mini +0.2%). Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.3% to $65.48/bbl and copper up 0.9%.
Later June US existing home sales and preliminary July euro area consumer confidence print.