[RESEND] MNI Riksbank Review: January 2026

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Guidance Unchanged, But Slight Dovish Tweaks

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% as expected, with key guidance that the policy rate will remain at this level for "some time to come" unchanged.
• There weren’t many surprises in the policy statement, but recent increases in geopolitical uncertainty were acknowledged to have “widened the range of potential outcomes for what can happen going forward”.
• Taken alongside some dovish passages on inflation and the exchange rate in the Monetary Policy Update (detailed below), we think the near-term risk of a cut has risen a little relative to before the meeting.
• However, the bar to a move in either direction this year is still high – as noted by Governor Thedeen in the press conference, the current combination of low inflation and strengthening growth is a “good mix” for monetary policy.