EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: US Eminis & Bitcoin Trends

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UK
MIGRATION (BBG): “Keir Starmer’s government plans to make it easier to remove migrants with no rights to stay in the UK, as the prime minister seeks to gain control of the political narrative after one of the most bruising weeks of his 16 months in power.”
HOUSE PRICES (BBG): "House prices fall 0.5% from year ago to £364,833 Rightmove reports:"
EU
RUSSIA/US (BBG): “ President Donald Trump said proposed Senate legislation to sanction countries conducting business with Russia would be “okay with me,” his strongest indication yet that he would support a months long push to strangle Moscow’s funding.”
ECB (FT/BBG): "The European Central Bank could be forced to adjust monetary policy if a run on stablecoins were to impact the economy, Dutch central bank Governor Olaf Sleijpen told the FT in an interview."
GERMANY/CHINA (BBG): “German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil pressed for an “open, rules-based global trading system” as he departed for a high-stakes visit to Asia, as frictions over trade restrictions between the US, China and Europe ramp up.”
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Lowering interest rates further could stoke inflation without helping the labor market, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said, adding that monetary policy must stay tight enough to dampen elevated price pressures.
JOBS (MNI INTERVIEW): The U.S. job market is continuing to slow but there are no signs of a more worrisome decline, Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao told MNI, adding that the Federal Reserve should continue its fight against inflation.
POLITICS (RTRS): "U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged his fellow Republicans in Congress to vote for the release of files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reversing his earlier resistance to such a move."
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Japanese economy is not weak as a trend, although gross domestic product for the third quarter posted the first contraction in six quarters, a senior Cabinet Office official said. “The GDP contraction was due mainly to temporary factors, such as the drop of housing investment caused (by the government’s rules), and the reaction to the front-loaded export rise in Q2,” the official told reporters.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s economy contracted 0.4% q/q, or an annualised -1.8%, in July-September, marking the first decline in six quarters as weak private consumption, housing investment and net exports weighed on activity, preliminary Cabinet Office data showed Monday.
JAPAN (NIKKEI/BBG): "The Finance Ministry plans an economic package worth about ¥17 trillion ($110 billion), the Nikkei reported on Saturday, without identifying its sources. The supplementary budget to fund the spending is expected to reach about ¥14 trillion, exceeding last year’s ¥13.9 trillion compiled under former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the report said."
SOUTH KOREA (BBG): “Samsung Group and SK Group were among four of South Korea’s biggest companies that pledged to invest about $550 billion in the country after meeting with President Lee Jae Myung, who is seeking to shore up the economy following a trade deal with the US.”
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Statistics Canada told MNI Friday it's unclear when it will return to publishing regular trade balance figures after the end of a U.S. government shutdown deprived it of some customs data.
CHINA
CHINA/JAPAN (BBG): "China is escalating its confrontation with Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, with state media threatening major countermeasures after Beijing’s travel warnings raised the specter of economic retribution."
PROPERTY (YICAI): “Banks have stepped up the direct sales of real estate as the market downturn has led to collateralised properties being repossessed and placed into auction channels, industry insiders told Yicai. Repayment or loan renewal has become increasingly difficult as property prices fell below loan value, creating gaps that many borrowers are unable to cover, Yicai reported.”
CHINA/JAPAN (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan exposed “extremely wrong and highly dangerous” historic and strategic views held by Japan’s right-wing forces, and the international community must stay “highly vigilant” about Japan’s strategic trajectory, the People’s Daily says in a commentary published Monday.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY163.1 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY283 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY163.1 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY119.9 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0816 Mon; +2.04% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.0816 on Monday, compared with 7.0825 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.0976 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.13% In Week of Nov 14
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 97.83 on Nov 14, down 0.13% from 97.96 on Nov 7.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND OCT PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX 48.7; PRIOR 48.3
NEW ZEALAND OCT FOOD PRICES M/M -0.3%; PRIOR -0.4%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P GDP SA Q/Q -0.4%; MEDIAN -0.6%; PRIOR 0.6%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P NOMINAL SA Q/Q 0.1%; MEDIAN -0.3%; PRIOR 1.6%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P DEFLATOR Y/Y 2.8%; MEDIAN 3.1%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Q/Q 0.1%; MEDIAN 0.1%; PRIOR 0.4%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P BUSINESS SPENDING Q/Q 1.0%; MEDIAN -0.1%; PRIOR 0.8%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION % GDP -0.2%; MEDIAN -0.2%; PRIOR 0.0%
JAPAN Q3 GDP P NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION % GDP -0.2%; MEDIAN -0.2%; PRIOR 0.0%
JAPAN SEP F INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y 3.8%; PRIOR 3.4%
JAPAN SEP CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M 2.5%; PRIOR -2.3%
UK NOV RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M -1.8%; PRIOR 0.3%
UK NOV RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES Y/Y -0.5%; PRIOR -0.1%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Little Changed, Focus On Upcoming Data & Nvidia Results
TYZ5 is trading at 112-17+, +0-00+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
JGBS: Bear-Steepener As Market Focuses On Econ Stimulus, 20YY Highest Since '99
JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -17 compared to settlement levels, after the release of Q3 GDP data.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper Ahead Of Tomorrow's RBA Minutes & Wed's WPI
ACGBs (YM -2.5 & XM -4.0) are weaker on a data-light session.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-Jobs

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper But Best In $-Bloc, Nov Cut Hopes Stable
NZGBs closed showing a modest bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 1-2bps higher.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: Asia-Pac USD: BBDXY Moves Higher, Support Building Around 1213
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1216.04 - 1218.27 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1218, +0.15%. The USD has drifted higher in our session thanks to demand across USD/Asia, this might be differentiated when London comes in with risk turning higher after opening under early pressure. The USD again found support on Friday in the 1210-1215 area and is looking to build a base from which to move higher. I expect we do some more work around these levels but I would be looking for signs of a base forming from which to potentially move higher again. Short-term the 1221-1222 area remains the pivot on the topside and we would need a move back above there to build for a retest of the 1230-35 area.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot 4H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY Looking To Mount Another Challenge Of 155.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 154.42 - 154.79 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 154.70, +0.10%. The pair has traded better bid together with USD/Asia across the board in the Asian session. Usd/Jpy seems to remain well supported on dips as the market remains wary of the new leadership policies and a US December rate cut comes into doubt. The price action points to a renewed challenge to the resistance toward 155.00, a sustained break above here and it could start to pick up momentum to the topside again potentially targeting another push toward 160.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Drifts Lower As USD/ASIA Extends Higher
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6512 - 0.6537 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6520, -0.30%. The AUD/USD has drifted lower in our session being led by the move higher in USD/Asia. The AUD/USD tested the 0.6500 area on Friday but bounced into the weekend with US stocks. The AUD/USD looks a little lost and is chopping around in a clearly defined range. Bitcoin gapped lower on the open but has since recouped all its losses moving back above $95k, the moves in crypto have recently been leading the market but for this to get legs it would need to break below the pivotal $90k area to add to the current market malaise. The AUD/USD has basically traded 0.6350-0.6650 since April this year and we will need a catalyst for this to break, otherwise it looks like more of the same unfortunately.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD Drifts Back Toward 0.5650 Area
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5658 - 0.5681 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5665, -0.30%. The NZD/USD has drifted lower in our session being led by the move higher in USD/Asia. The NZD is one of those currencies in which positioning can become an issue because of the size of the market so when it grinds higher like it did at the back of last week while risk turned lower it is price action worth noting. The place to fade NZD again is closer toward 0.5800 should we see that area again.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Mixed Trends, Japan Down On China Concerns, Philippines Rebounds
Asia Pac stocks are mixed so far in Monday trade. Japan and China stocks sit weaker, while South Korea and Taiwan are higher. In South East Asia, the Philippines is the standout up over 3% (after making fresh multi year lows in recent dealings). US equity futures are tracking higher, led by Nasdaq futures, up close to 0.70% (Eminis are around +0.45% firmer). Focus is on crypto for broader risk trends, with Bitcoin up +1.65% so far today and likely aiding the US equity futures moves.
OIL: Benchmarks Down, Trump Ok With Sanctions On Russian Trading Partners
Oil benchmarks sit off recent highs, Brent last around $63.85/bbl, unable to breach above the $65 level from late last week. So far we are down around 0.85% versus end Friday levels. WTI was last close to $59.50/55/bb, off by a similar amount (with Friday highs at $60.65/bbl). BBG notes signs of a resumption in supply from a key Russian port, (which was attacked by Ukraine last week) has been a factor in downside pressure today.
Gold - Drops Back, Support Seen Back Toward The $$3,900-$4,000 Area
The range Friday night for gold was $4,032.31/oz - $4,186.98/oz, Asia is currently trading around $4,090/oz, +0.15%. Gold slipped lower on Friday as the market looked toward eventually having a look at some US data starting this week and the implications of a Fed that seems to be pushing back on a December rate cut for the moment. Gold has technically put in a lower high now around the $4,250/oz area but strong support is seen back toward the $3,900/oz area. The market is trying to form a base from which to test higher again, while the $3900-$4000 area continues to hold dips should continue to be supported.
Fig 1 : Gold Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 17/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | Flash GDP | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ECB de Guindos Speech at Euro Finance Week | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Italy Final HICP | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1000/0500 | * | CREA Existing Home Sales | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1315/0815 | ** | CMHC Housing Starts | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1320/1320 | BOE Mann on DMP and MonPol | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | International Canadian Transaction in Securities | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 1430/0930 | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 1445/1545 | ECB Lane Lecture on ECB MonPol | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | Construction Spending | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | Construction Spending | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1600/1700 | ECB Cipollone at ECON Digital Euro Hearing | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 17/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | ||
| 17/11/2025 | 2035/1535 | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ECB Elderson at Banking Supervision Press Conference | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1300/1300 | BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Import/Export Price Index | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |