MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Japan's Q3 GDP Revised Down

Dec-08 05:44By: Jamie Grant

Europe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

JAPAN’S Q3 GDP REVISED DOWN ON CAPEX - MNI
FRENCH PRESIDENT CALLS FOR CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY APPROACH - BBG
UK PM TO HOST UKRAINE PRESIDENT MONDAY - BBC
RUSSIA WELCOMES NEW US SECURITY STRATEGY - BBC

Fig 1: China Exports Rebound in November, Trade Surplus $111bn

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

UKRAINE (BBC): “UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in London on Monday amid a continuing deadlock in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.”

EMPLOYMENT (BBC): “The government says some 50,000 young people are expected to benefit from a programme to expand apprenticeships as it looks to tackle youth unemployment. The £725 million package, which was earmarked in the Budget and covers the next three years, will be used to create apprenticeships in sectors including AI, hospitality and engineering.”

HOUSING (TIMES): “First-time buyers in Britain were older and more indebted than ever last year as rent soared and savings dwindled. Figures from the English Housing Survey showed that the average first-time buyer was 34, or 35 in London, and almost two thirds took out mortgages of 30 years or more.”

POLITICS (TIMES): “In the clearest sign yet that it is preparing for a change of PM, Labour Together wants members’ views on who can secure victory at the next election.”

ECONOMY (BBG):”French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in approach to monetary policy at the European Central Bank to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of financial crisis.”

EU (POLITICO): “Germany’s Friedrich Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said they held “constructive” talks with Belgium over the potential use of billions in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine.”

EU (POLITICO): “Hungary formally ruled out issuing eurobonds to support Ukraine on Friday, a move that robs the EU of a potential Plan B should it fail to find a way to use frozen Russian state assets to finance a €165 billion loan to Kyiv.”

EU (POLITICO): ““Europe has been underestimating its own power toward Russia, for example,” Kallas said while on a panel at the Doha Forum, a major gathering of diplomats, NGOs and other international leaders. “We should be more self-confident, that’s for sure.””

UKRAINE (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he's disappointed in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's handling of a US proposal to end the war with Russia. The US said its negotiators had agreed with Kyiv on a "framework of security arrangements" and discussed deterrence capabilities as part of a deal to end the war with Russia.”

UKRAINE (BBC): “A protective shield covering the Chernobyl nuclear reactor in Ukraine can no longer provide its main containment function following a drone strike earlier this year, according to a UN watchdog.”

UKRAINE (BBC): “An Garda Síochána (Irish police force) has launched an investigation after drones were detected in Irish skies on the night the Ukrainian president arrived in Ireland.”

RUSSIA (BBC): “Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow is ready to provide "uninterrupted shipments" of fuel to India, as Delhi faces pressure from the US to stop buying Russian oil.”

CHINA (POLITICO): “European industry is facing a "life or death" moment, says French President Emmanuel Macron, squeezed between an ultra-competitive China and a protectionist America — and Beijing should ride to its rescue with long overdue foreign investment.”

GEOPOLITICS (BBC): “Russia has welcomed US President Donald Trump's new National Security Strategy, calling it "largely consistent" with Moscow's vision.”

UKRAINE (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he’s disappointed in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s handling of a US proposal to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion.”

BUSINESS (BBG): “President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns for Netflix Inc.’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems.”

BUSINESS (BBG): “Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos met with President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss the auction of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.”

TRADE (POLITICO): ““Yes, there’s a strategy,” Greer said in a new interview with The Conversation. “First of all, you don’t change 70 years of trade policy overnight. And second of all, when some people say, ‘Oh, well, this is chaos. What’s your strategy?’, what they really want to know is can we go back to how it was before? And that’s not going to happen.””

DEFENCE (POLITICO): “Hegseth, speaking at the annual Reagan Defense Forum, outlined a new military focus on the Western Hemisphere, demanded allies fend for themselves and took a more conciliatory approach to China’s armed forces.”

JAPAN

MNI POLICY : BOJ Unshaken By JGB Volatility

ECONOMY (MNI): Japan's Q3 GDP fell 0.6% q/q, or an annualised -2.3%, compared with the initial estimate of -0.4% q/q, or -1.8% annualised, as capital investment and public spending were revised down, although private consumption was revised slightly higher, second preliminary GDP data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday.

WAGES (MNI): “Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of households’ purchasing power, remained in negative territory for the 10th straight month in October, falling 0.7% after a 1.3% drop in September, preliminary data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed Monday.

ECONOMY (MNI): "Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index fell for the first time in seven months in November, with the outlook index for two to three months ahead also posting its first decline in seven months, although the government kept its overall assessment unchanged, data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday."

CHINA TRADE TENSIONS (BBG): “Beijing and Tokyo traded complaints against each other as their simmering diplomatic spat intensified over the weekend after Chinese fighter aircraft trained their fire-control radar systems on Japanese military jets for the first time.”

CHINA

MNI China Press Digest Dec 8: Economy, Consumption, Guangdong

MNI BRIEF: China's Nov Exports +5.9%; Rebound From 8-month Low

MNI BRIEF: China imported 50.8 million metric tonnes of crude oil in November, up from 48.3 mmt in October, as total inbound shipments rose 3.2% y/y during the first 11 months, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.7 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY122.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY14.7 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY107.6 billion today, according to Wind Information

The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4000% at 09:26 am local time from the close of 1.4380% on Friday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 48 on Friday, compared with the close of 49 on Thursday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0764 Mon; +2.95% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0764 on Monday, compared with 7.0749 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.0739 by Bloomberg survey today.

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.27% In Week of Dec 5

The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 97.65 on Dec 5, down 0.27% from 97.92 on Nov 28.

The gauge, which compares the yuan to a basket of currencies from China's 24 major trading partners, has decreased 3.76% this year, when compares with 101.47 on Dec. 31, 2024.

MARKET DATA

JAPAN REAL CASH EARNINGS YOY OCTOBER -0.7%; EST -1.2%, PRIOR -1.3%
JAPAN LABOR CASH EARNINGS YoY OCTOBER 2.6%; EST 2.2%, PRIOR 2.1%

JAPAN GDP ANNUALIZED SA QoQ 3QF -2.3%, EST -2.0%; PRIOR -1.8%
JAPAN GDP SA QoQ 3QF -0.6%, EST -0.5%, PRIOR -0.4%
JAPAN GDP NOMINAL SA QoQ 3QF -0.1%, EST 0.0%, PRIOR 0.1%
JAPAN GDP DEFLATOR YoY 3QF 3.4%, EST 2.8%, PRIOR 2.8%
JAPAN GDP PRIVATE CONSUMPTION % GDP 3QF 0.2%, EST 0.1%, PRIOR 0.1%
JAPAN GDP BUSINESS SPENDING QoQ 3QF -0.2%, EST 0.4%, PRIOR 1.0%
JAPAN INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION % GDP 3QF -0.1%, EST -0.1%, PRIOR -0.2%
JAPAN NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION % GDP 3QF -0.2%, EST -0.2%, PRIOR -0.2%

JAPAN BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OCT YEN2,833B; EST YEN3,129b, PRIOR 4,483b
JAPAN TRADE BALANCE BoP BASIS OCT YEN98.3bn, EST YEN200.5bn, PRIOR YEN236bn
JAPAN BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTED OCT YEN2,476bn, EST YEN3,009bn, PRIOR YEN4,347bn

JAPAN BANK LENDING INC UNIT TRUSTS NOVEMBER 4.2%, PRIOR 4.1%
JAPAN BANK LENDING EX-UNIT TRUSTS YOY 4.5%, PRIOR 4.4%

CHINA EXPORTS YoY NOVEMBER 5.9%, EST 4.0%, PRIOR -1.1%
CHINA IMPORTS YoY NOVEMBER 1.9%, EST 3.0%, PRIOR 1.0%
CHINA TRADE BALANCE NOVEMBER US$111.68bn, EST 103.10bn, PRIOR US$90.07bn
CHINA EXPORTS YoY CNY 5.7%, PRIOR -0.8%
CHINA IMPORTS YoY CNY 1.7%, PRIOR 1.4%
CHINA TRADE BALANCE CNY 800bn, PRIOR CNY640bn

MARKETS

US TSYS: Bonds Give Back Early Gains

US bond futures gave back earlier gains to be near where they started in the afternoon session. The US 10-Yr is flat at 112-17+ near to the 100-day EMA of 112-15. Topside resistance is the 50-day EMA of 112-26.

Cash has trended back to relatively unchanged across the curve having been lower in yields earlier.

The 2-Yr is at 3.563%
The 5-Yr is at 3.713%
The 10-Yr is at 4.137%
The 30-Yr is at 4.793%

There are no Tier 1 data releases tonight with markets looking ahead to the JOLTs Job Openings for October

Ahead tonight is a 13 and 26 week bill auction, with the focus being the U$58bn 3-Year auction.

JGBS: Mostly Cheaper With 10YY A Fresh Cycle High ut A Subdued Session

JGB futures are slightly weaker, -3 compared to settlement levels, after a relatively subdued session.

MNI Techs Team - Futures prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Friday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that's dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signalling any broader reversal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.
MNI - Japan's Q3 GDP fell 0.6% q/q, or an annualised -2.3%, compared with the initial estimate of -0.4% q/q, or -1.8% annualised, as capital investment and public spending were revised down, although private consumption was revised slightly higher. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan's GDP, was revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, though its contribution remained unchanged at 0.1 pp.
Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's modest sell-off.
Cash JGBs are 2.5bps cheaper (20-year) to 0.5bp richer (40-year) across benchmarks, with the 10-year yield 1.0bp higher at 1.958%, a fresh cycle high.
Swap rates are 1-3bps higher, with a steeper curve.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Money Stock and Machine Tool Orders data alongside 5-year supply.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

AUSSIE BONDS: Weaker But Subdued Day Ahead Of Tomorrow's RBA Policy Decision

ACGBs (YM -2.5 & XM -2.0) remain weaker after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s session.

Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's modest sell-off.
Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +57bps.
Today’s Jun-54 auction delivered the weighted average yield 0.81bps through prevailing mids. Moreover, demand strengthened, as reflected by a cover ratio of 3.4333x, up from 2.8500x from the previous auction. The stronger demand came with the outright yield at a fresh cycle high, 20bps higher than the previous auction (see chart).
The bills strip has bear-flattened across contracts.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see NAB Business Confidence ahead of the RBA Policy Decision. Thursday’s November jobs data will also be important this week.
The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates at 3.6% with the market pricing in no chance of a move in either direction. Therefore, the statement will be scrutinized to gauge the Board’s thinking regarding the outlook and especially if there is a change to the balance of risks and a shift to concern about upside ones to inflation after the October trimmed mean printed at 3.3%.
The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Wednesday.

Bloomberg Finance LP

BONDS: NZGBS: Heavy Session Outright & Relatively Vs $-Bloc

NZGBs closed 5-10bps cheaper, led by the 5-year. Accordingly, NZGBs sit amazingly 18-38bps higher than pre-RBNZ levels. (see chart)

On a relative value basis, the 5-year swap is at its cheapest valuation since mid-2022, based on the 2-/5-/10-year butterfly spread.
Versus the $-bloc, NZGBs also underperformed sharply, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differential 5-6bps higher. At +30bps, NZ-US differential is back at April levels.
Swap rates closed 10-13bps higher, with a steeper 2s10s curve.
RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed firmer across meetings. No easing is now priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 44bps of tightening.
The local calendar was empty today and will remain so until Wednesday, when RBNZ Governor Breman hosts a media Q+A alongside Net Migration data.
On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$175mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP

FOREX: USD - BBDXY Testing 1210-1211 Again

The BBDXY has had a range today of 1210.91 - 1212.57 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1211, -0.10%. The USD has traded slightly softer in the Asian session. US yields extended their bounce last week and risk has consolidated its recent gains. The USD saw decent demand back toward the 1211 area at the back-end of last week and it looks like the range 1210-1230 could be here for the moment. On the day look for resistance again back towards the 1215-1217 area where sellers should remerge initially, support remains toward 1210/11 which needs to be worked through and then the more important 1205 area.

EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1639-1.1655, Asia is currently trading 1.1655. The pair continues to consolidate around the 1.1650 area. On the day it looks like dips back toward 1.1580-1600 could be supported initially, looking to retest the 1.1680 area again eventually.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3323-1.3342, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3340. The pair is consolidating on a 1.33 handle. I remain skewed toward shorts but patience is required and we are now approaching levels where I will be watching for any signs of potentially topping out. On the day GBP should see support back toward the 1.3260-1.3290 area, while above here look for the market to test the 1.3370-90 area again at some point.
Cross asset : SPX +0.20%, Gold $4210, US 10-Year 4.133%, BBDXY 1211, Crude Oil $60.22
Data/Events : EZ Sentix Investor Confidence, Germany Industrial Production SA

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: USD/JPY - Treads Water Around 154.50-155.00

The USD/JPY range today has been 154.90 - 155.38 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 155.10, -0.15%. The pair has traded a little lower in a quiet start to the week. The market is pricing in the fact that the Yen move looks likely to force the BOJ into action in December. This has stalled the upward momentum and could keep it contained in the short-term but I suspect the market will still look for opportunities to express a long USD at the right levels. Technically USD/JPY is still in an uptrend with the first big support back toward the 153-155 area which should see buyers reemerge. In today's Asian session I suspect we will continue to consolidate within a wider 154.50-156.00 range. The FOMC later this week could be the catalyst to get this pair moving again as it could potentially be meaningful for the USD direction going into the year-end.

MNI BRIEF: Japan's Q3 GDP Revised Down on Capex. Japan's Q3 GDP fell 0.6% q/q, or an annualised -2.3%, compared with the initial estimate of -0.4% q/q, or -1.8% annualised, as capital investment and public spending were revised down, although private consumption private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, was revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, though its contribution remained unchanged at 0.1 pp.
Bloomberg - “Goldman strategists believe one BOJ rate hike won’t sustainably end yen underperformance. Investors are holding fast to the bearish wagers on the currency.”
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.00($1.33b), 156.00($1.49b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($877m Dec 11), 156.00($880m Dec 10), 156.00($1.24b Dec 11) - BBG.
The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 93 Points

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD/USD - Trying To Build On Break Above 0.6630

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6631 - 0.6648 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6645, +0.10%. The AUD/USD is trying to build some momentum on its break above 0.6630. The AUD price action remains very constructive and indicative of a market with solid buying interest. While the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 I suspect dips should continue to be supported. In the Asian session, look to see if the AUD can hold above this 0.6620/30 area. It has come a long way so if this does not hold we could see a pullback, first support below that is toward 0.6570/90 where we should see demand reappear. Ultimately the AUD is looking to rebuild momentum to have another look back toward the 0.6700 area at some point. RBA tomorrow and the FOMC later this week should dictate the upcoming price action.

MNI AU - The focus of the week is on Tuesday’s RBA decision but Thursday’s November jobs data will also be important. The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates at 3.6% with the market pricing in no chance of a move in either direction. Therefore, the statement will be scrutinised to gauge the Board’s thinking regarding the outlook and especially if there is a change to the balance of risks and a shift to concern about upside ones to inflation after October trimmed mean printed at 3.3%.
“CHALMERS: TO DELIVER MID YEAR BUDGET OUTLOOK NEXT WEEK" : BBG
MNI AU - RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer today, showing tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 2% tomorrow to 105% by August and 141% by December 2026.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6475(AUD814m), 0.6500(AUD342m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6550(AUD1.59b Dec 11) - BBG
The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 35 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD/USD - Drifts Higher, Back Toward 0.5800

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5770-0.5791 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5785, +0.15%. The NZD/USD has drifted higher having a look back outward the 0.5800 area in our session. On the day, look for support now back toward the 0.5735-0.5755 area as the focus turns back to the more important 0.5800-50 resistance where I suspect sellers could return initially. The FOMC this week will have important implications for the USD so the market will be gearing up for that event.

MNI - This week is dominated by the FOMC decision, widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp cut after NY Fed Williams' uncharacteristic guidance following the delayed September payrolls report. It's likely to be a contentious meeting, though, with many FOMC members preferring to pause.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5670(NZD382m), 0.5730(NZD767m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5700(NZD557m Dec 10) - BBG
The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 34 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: Markets Await FED as Japan Growth Stumbles

Most regional bourses are positive Monday ahead of a major week for financial markets. With the FED reserve decision later this week, the weak 3Q Japan GDP was seemingly overlooked as tech and AI stocks demand remains strong as Samsung and TSMC lead. The anticipated cut by the Federal Reserve is all but priced in with the risks now for a 'hawkish' cut, moderating risk sentiment. Japan's worse than expected 3Q GDP result was underscored by weaker private demand, particularly in capex ahead of the anticipated hike in rates by the BOJ. Gold has consolidated above US$4,200/oz, with strong inflows into Asian gold ETFs, particularly from China, driven by profit taking on local equity and geopolitical tensions between China and Japan. Base metals like copper were also broadly higher.

Despite the worse than expected GDP, the NIKKEI has hovered around where it began the day at 50,478 above the 20-day EMA of 49,919
The KOSPI is up again with key tech stocks like Samsung over up over +1.2% today, seeing the index up by +0.25% and the TAIEX rose +0.93% has TSMC jumped over 2% Monday.
The onshore offshore divide was evident in China with the Hang Seng down heavily by -1.1%, whilst the CSI 300 rose by over 1%. Shenzhen is the outperformer on the day with gains of +1.3% with some tech stocks up strongly. The performance highlights a strong investor focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, which have been a key growth area in the region
The NIFTY 50 continues to moderate and is down -0.12% Monday. Since hitting new highs on NOV 27, the NIFTY has fallen five out of seven trading days though the losses have been contained. The NIFTY sits only 0.25% below the high of 26,215.
SE Asia's bourses are led again by the Jakarta Composite which is up strongly by +0.95%, to reach overbought on the 14-day Relative Strength Index. It last reached overbought in August where it remained for several trading days. The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.55% and teh SE Thai -0.10%

OIL: Crude Holding Onto Gains As Watching Ukraine Developments

Oil prices are marginally higher as the market monitors Ukraine/Russia developments with negotiations ongoing, US President Trump criticizing Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, Ukraine striking Russian refineries and Russia’s President Putin encouraging Indian oil purchases. Market expectations that there would be a peace deal faded over last week driving oil prices higher and they remain sensitive to events.

WTI is up 0.2% to $60.21/bbl after falling to $59.97 with moves below $60 short-lived. It rose 2.7% last week. Brent is 0.2% higher at $63.88/bbl following a peak of $63.94 and a low at $63.63. It was up 2.4% last week.
Both benchmarks have been in a very narrow range today as they wait for more information regarding geopolitical developments, including Venezuela, and monthly oil reports. Forecasts will be monitored closely for any upward revisions to 2026 surplus projections. The EIA short-term energy outlook is on Tuesday and OPEC & IEA reports on Thursday.
Trump said that he was disappointed with how Zelenskyy has treated the latest US proposal and accused him of not reading it.
The US and Ukraine agreed on a “framework for security arrangements” with “necessary deterrence capabilities to sustain a lasting peace”, according to the US State Department. However, Russia said that Trump’s National Security Strategy was “largely consistent” with Russia’s view.
Ukraine struck Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery on the weekend in response to heavy attacks on its energy generation. This followed strikes late last week on Russia’s Syzran refinery and Temryuk port.
Later US November NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and German October IP print. The ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Taylor & Lombardelli speak.

GOLD: Range Trading As Wait For Wednesday’s Fed Decision

Gold prices are slightly higher in Monday’s APAC trading supported by a lower US dollar (BBDXY -0.1%) but have moved in a very narrow range of $4195.60/4213.17. They are currently up 0.3% to $4211.8/oz. Bullion, like other assets, will probably remain in a narrow range ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. The market has 23bp of easing priced in but it could be a hawkish cut, which may weigh on gold.

Silver is down 0.6% to $58.02 oz today, driven by profit taking, after rising 2.1% on Friday. It finished last week up 3.3% and has been hovering around overbought on a 14-day RSI basis, according to Bloomberg. It started today at a high of $58.789, just below initial resistance at $58.979. The metal remains in an uptrend supported by a resumption of ETF inflows.
Gold continues to trade between initial resistance at $4264.7 and initial support at $4139.7, 20-day EMA. The bull trigger is at $4381.5.
PBoC data for November showed a 30k troy oz rise in gold reserves, the thirteenth consecutive monthly increase.
Equities are mixed with the S&P e-mini up 0.2% and CSI 300 +1.0% but Hang Seng down 1.1% and ASX -0.2%. Oil prices are little changed with WTI +0.2% to $60.23/bbl. Copper is down 0.3%.
Later US November NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and German October IP print. The ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Taylor & Lombardelli speak.

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
08/12/2025	0500/1400		JP	Economy Watchers Survey
08/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
08/12/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
08/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
08/12/2025	1500/1600		EU	ECB Cipollone Lecture at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
08/12/2025	1600/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
08/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
08/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
08/12/2025	1700/1700		GB	BOE Taylor Panel on Growth/Wealth/Debt
08/12/2025	1800/1300	***	US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
08/12/2025	1830/1830		GB	BOE Lombardelli Panel on Women in Economics
09/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
09/12/2025	0330/1430	***	AU	RBA Rate Decision
09/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
09/12/2025	1000/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/12/2025	1100/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index