ASIA STOCKS: Markets Await FED as Japan Growth Stumbles
Dec-08 04:35
Most regional bourses are positive Monday ahead of a major week for financial markets. With the FED reserve decision later this week, the weak 3Q Japan GDP was seemingly overlooked as tech and AI stocks demand remains strong as Samsung and TSMC lead. The anticipated cut by the Federal Reserve is all but priced in with the risks now for a 'hawkish' cut, moderating risk sentiment. Japan's worse than expected 3Q GDP result was underscored by weaker private demand, particularly in capex ahead of the anticipated hike in rates by the BOJ. Gold has consolidated above US$4,200/oz, with strong inflows into Asian gold ETFs, particularly from China, driven by profit taking on local equity and geopolitical tensions between China and Japan. Base metals like copper were also broadly higher.
- Despite the worse than expected GDP, the NIKKEI has hovered around where it began the day at 50,478 above the 20-day EMA of 49,919
- The KOSPI is up again with key tech stocks like Samsung over up over +1.2% today, seeing the index up by +0.25% and the TAIEX rose +0.93% has TSMC jumped over 2% Monday.
- The onshore offshore divide was evident in China with the Hang Seng down heavily by -1.1%, whilst the CSI 300 rose by over 1%. Shenzhen is the outperformer on the day with gains of +1.3% with some tech stocks up strongly. The performance highlights a strong investor focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, which have been a key growth area in the region
- The NIFTY 50 continues to moderate and is down -0.12% Monday. Since hitting new highs on NOV 27, the NIFTY has fallen five out of seven trading days though the losses have been contained. The NIFTY sits only 0.25% below the high of 26,215.
- SE Asia's bourses are led again by the Jakarta Composite which is up strongly by +0.95%, to reach overbought on the 14-day Relative Strength Index. It last reached overbought in August where it remained for several trading days. The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.55% and teh SE Thai -0.10%
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FED: Fed Assets Pull Back, But Reserve Management Buys Eyed In 2026 (2/2)
Nov-07 21:58
Indeed NY's Williams has already begun pointing to potential for balance sheet re-expansion to begin again, with "reserve management" purchases intended to keep Fed liabilities rising in line with market demand:
- "Looking forward, the next step in our balance sheet strategy will be to assess when the level of reserves has reached ample. It will then be time to begin the process of gradual purchases of assets that will maintain an ample level of reserves as the Fed’s other liabilities grow and underlying demand for reserves increases over time. Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy."
- The prevailing consensus is that such reserve management purchases will begin by the end of Q1 2026 if not earlier, with t-bills bought and in amounts of up to $20B a month.
- Meanwhile in the final countdown to the end of QT on December 1, net SOMA runoff was around $4B in the last week, with a pace of around $20B overall over the last month.
- Takeup of the Fed's lending facilities pulled back in the week to Wednesday Nov 5, halving to just over $11B as month-end pressures abated. This was due almost entirely to a $10.2B drop in dealer repo operation takeup, the spike in which last week marked the highest since 2020.
FED: Reserves Tick Up Slightly In Latest Week, But Still Near "Ample" (1/2)
Nov-07 21:53
The Fed's latest H.4.1 release on Nov 5 showed reserves picked up from the prior week's post-2020 lows to $2.85T, up $24B in the latest week but still down $182B over the last month.
- This of course has been the mirror image of movements in the Treasury General Account which briefly touched $1T though settled Wednesday at $943B (a fall of $41B on the week, but a rise of $149B in a month).
- Treasury indicated this week that it maintained its $850B quarter-end cash target, with the recent buildup due in part to the federal government shutdown slowing outflows but also a typical cautionary cash rase ahead of large seasonal expenditures.
- The Fed's reverse repo facilities remained in relatively negligible territory albeit with a slight pickup at month-end October.
- Overall the Fed has recognized that it may be getting close to the transition point between once-"abundant" and now merely "ample" reserves, hence October's decision to end net asset runoff as of Dec 1.
- NY Fed President Williams said Friday morning “Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long before we reach ample reserves."
FED: Financial Stability Report Eyes Term Premia And "Opaque" Financing Risks
Nov-07 21:31
A few highlights from the Fed's latest Financial Stability report out today (link):
- In terms of asset valuations, "Prices remained high relative to their historical relationship with fundamentals across a range of markets."
- The report highlights high leverage in the financial sector: "Vulnerabilities associated with financial leverage remained notable. Over the past few years, hedge funds’ leverage has steadily increased across a broad range of strategies, including those involving Treasury securities, interest rate derivatives, and equities"
- However "Vulnerabilities from business and household debt remained moderate" and "The banking sector remained sound and resilient overall, and most banks continued to report capital levels well above regulatory requirements."
- In terms of future risks, "A further increase in term premiums leading to higher-than-anticipated long-term interest rates, particularly if accompanied by
persistent inflation, could pose risks for both borrowers and lenders" - And the Fed has its eye on "opaque off-balance-sheet funding arrangements" re the recent voliatility caused by First Brands and Tricolor: "The recent bankruptcies of two privately held firms, an auto parts supplier and a subprime auto lender, so far appear to be isolated events. However, these examples highlight that unexpected losses could arise from opaque off-balance-sheet funding arrangements that may be used by certain privately held firms."
