MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: China CPI Deflation Persists
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- US, CHINA TO RESUME TRADE TALKS WITH FOCUS ON RARE EARTH EXPORTS - BBG
- TRUMP SAYS NATIONAL GUARD WILL RESTORE ORDER, END UNREST IN LA - BBG
- JAPAN Q1 GDP DECLINE REVISED UP ON CONSUMPTION - MNI BRIEF
- CHINA MAY CPI REMAINS NEGATIVE FOR FOURTH MONTH - MNI BRIEF
- CHINA’S MAY EXPORTS +4.8%; IMPORTS -3.4% - MNI BRIEF
Fig 1: China Deflation Persisted In May
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
FISCAL (BBC): “Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is the last minister yet to agree a funding deal with the Treasury before Wednesday's Spending Review, BBC News understands. Ministers have been locked in talks with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her team ahead of the major financial statement.”
POLITICS (BBC): “Reform UK's deputy leader Richard Tice has insisted the party knows "exactly what it is doing" following a 48 hours in which its chairman Zia Yusuf resigned, before returning in a different role.”
TECH (POLITICO): “In a stern intervention, a judge at the High Court of England and Wales issued a formal warning to legal professionals on Friday, declaring that lawyers who submit fictitious cases generated by artificial intelligence could face criminal charges.”
EU
EU/CHINA (SECURITIES TIMES): China has approved a number rare earth export applications and will enhance communication with relevant countries, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday. The ministry emphasised that implementing controls on rare earths, which have both civilian and military applications, aligns with international practices. The ministry was willing to establish a green channel and accelerate approvals to European Union firms.
EURO (BBG): “ European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel sees a favorable moment now to strengthen the euro’s global role as investors turn to Europe.”
SPAIN (BBG): “Spain’s main opposition party rallied thousands of people in a demonstration in the heart of Madrid, calling for early elections following accusations of corruption against the Socialist-led government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. “
GERMANY (POLITICO): “Germany may need to turn to compulsory measures to get more soldiers into the ranks of its depleted military, say senior lawmakers from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “One of the aims of a visit to Washington earlier this week by a delegation from Kyiv was to prepare for a potential Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 gathering set for June 15-17 in Kananaskis, Alberta.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “Russia has hit Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, with a massive drone and bomber attack, killing four people and injuring nearly 60, officials say.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “Two major airports serving Moscow were temporarily closed early Sunday, Russian officials said, during a Ukrainian drone strike targeting the Russian capital.”
FRANCE (POLITICO): “French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Greenland on June 15 in a show of support for the autonomous Danish territory coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump.”
SLOVAKIA/EU (POLITICO): “Slovakia will block any European Union sanctions against Russia that damage the country's interests, Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Sunday.”
US
US/CHINA (BBG): “ Top trade negotiators from the US and China are set to hold fresh talks in London on Monday, offering a glimmer of hope that the world’s two largest economies can defuse tensions over Chinese dominance in rare-earth minerals.”
PROTESTS (BBG): “ President Donald Trump pledged Sunday to send whatever is necessary to California to respond to two days of protests in Los Angeles triggered by sweeping immigration raids.”
FED (MNI BRIEF): Michael Horowitz has been appointed inspector general of the Federal Reserve and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, succeeding Mark Bialek who retired in April after 14 years in the role.
JOBS (MNI BRIEF): U.S. hiring stayed solid in May with employers adding 139,000 jobs, just above the market consensus of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2% (4.244% vs 4.187% in April), the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.
REGULATION (MNI BRIEF): U.S. bank regulators will soon propose reforms to the supplementary leverage ratio to ensure it acts as a backstop to risk-based capital requirements rather than a binding constraint that creates market distortions, Michelle Bowman, the Fed's new head of regulation, said Friday.
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's economy fell at a slower pace than previously estimated during Q1, as the Cabinet Office revised up private consumption and the contribution from inventory, although capital investment declined by more than previously thought, the government's second preliminary data release showed on Monday.
CANADA (MNI): Prime Minister Mark Carney introduced legislation Friday deeming infrastructure projects such as energy pipelines in Canada's interest as being pre-approved for construction within two years, part of an effort to streamline regulations that investors have criticized as overly burdensome.
COLOMBIA (RTRS): “Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe, a potential presidential contender, survived an initial operation for his injuries after being shot in Bogota on Saturday, according to his wife and the hospital treating him, although he remains in intensive care.”
CHINA
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): China's Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% y/y in May, unchanged from April's pace but above market expectations of -0.2%, mainly affected by falling energy prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.
TRADE (MNI BRIEF): China's exports grew 4.8% y/y to USD316.10 billion in May following April's 8.1% increase, lower than the 6.0% y/y consensus, according to data released by China Customs on Monday.
CHINA/US (XINHUA): “The US’s mindset of generalizing economic and trade issues as security issues is the crux of the problem amid trade negotiations with China, Xinhua News Agency wrote in a commentary Sunday.”
POLICY (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “China is expected to introduce more stabilizing measures in the near future to support the economy, particularly in areas such as major projects and trade, Shanghai Securities News reports, citing analysts.”
INFRASTRUCTURE (SECURITIES TIMES): “China’s central government will accelerate investment in key infrastructure projects to support its economy, Securities Times reported, citing industry experts.”
BONDS (SECURITIES TIMES): “The assets under management of mainland-China listed exchange-traded bond funds have risen to a record high of 300b yuan ($41.7b), due to strong demand driven by steady declines in interest rates, according to a report by Securities Times.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY173.8 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY173.8 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY173.8 billion as no reverse repo matures today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4527% at 09:44 am local time from the close of 1.5323% on Friday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 45 on Friday, compared with the close of 47 on Thursday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1855 Mon; +0.94% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1855 on Monday, compared with 7.1845 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1892 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.38% In Week of Jun 6
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 95.58 on Jun 5, down 0.38% compared with 96.96 as of May 30.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q1 MANUFACTURING VOLUMES +2.4% Q/Q; Q4 +1.2%
NEW ZEALAND Q1 MANUFACTURING SALES +5.1% Q/Q; Q4 +3.0%
CHINA MAY CONSUMER PRICES -0.1% Y/Y; EST. -0.2%; APR. -0.1%
CHINA CORE CPI MAY +0.6% Y/Y; APR. +0.5%
CHINA MAY PRODUCER PRICES -3.3% Y/Y; EST. -3.2%; APR. -2.7%
CHINA MAY EXPORTS IN YUAN +6.3% Y/Y; APR. +9.3%
CHINA MAY EXPORTS USD +4.8% Y/Y; EST. +6.0%; APR. +8.1%
CHINA MAY IMPORTS IN YUAN -2.1% Y/Y; APR. +0.8%
CHINA MAY IMPORTS USD -3.4% Y/Y; EST. -0.8%; APR. -0.2%
CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE USD $103.2B; EST. $101.1B; APR. $96.2B
JAPAN Q1 REVISED REAL GDP ANNUALISED -0.2%; EST. -0.7%; PRE -0.7%; Q4 +2.2%
JAPAN Q1 REVISED REAL GDP -0.0% Q/Q; EST. -0.2%; PRE -0.2%; Q4 +0.6%
JAPAN Q1 REVISED PRIVATE CONSUMPTION +0.1% Q/Q; EST. 0.0%; PRE. 0.0%; Q4 +0.1%
JAPAN Q1 REVISED CAPEX +1.1% Q/Q; EST. +1.3%; PRE +1.4%; Q4 +0.6%
JAPAN Q1 REVISED NET EXPORT CONTRIBUTION -0.8PP; EST. -0.8PP; PRE -0.8PP; Q4 +0.7PP
JAPAN APRIL TRADE DEFICIT Y32.8B; EST. -Y174.8B; MAR. +Y516.5B
JAPAN APRIL ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS Y2.307T; EST. +Y2.59T; MAR. +Y2.72T
JAPAN APRIL CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS Y2.258T; EST. +Y2.60T; MAR. +Y3.68T
JAPAN MAY BANK LENDING EXCLUDING TRUSTS +2.6% Y/Y; APR. +2.5%
JAPAN MAY BANK LENDING INCLUDING TRUSTS +2.4% Y/Y; APR +2.3%
JAPAN MAY ADJ. ECO WATCHERS OUTLOOK INDEX 44.8; EST. 44.0; APR. 42.7
JAPAN MAY ADJ. ECO WATCHERS CURRENT INDEX 44.4; EST. 43.9; APR. 42.6
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Firmer, Led By Front End, 2yr Struggles Near 4.05% Again
The first part of Monday US Tsy trade has seen outperformance, led by the front end. For the 2-5yr tenor yields are off around 3bps. The 10yr Tsy yield is back under 4.49%.
- The 10yr Sep Tsy future has crept higher throughout the session, last at 110-02+, +05+, versus end Friday levels. A direct catalyst for the move haven't been obvious, although we have only given back a modest part of Friday's sell-off.
- For the 2yr Tsy yield, we have struggled once we approach the 4.05% region, going back to mid March. Despite Friday's data beats in the US, there still may be a sense of more downside risks to growth lie ahead, which in turn could be capping upside yield momentum.
- The 10yr, just under 4.49%, remains fairly close to the mid-point of recent ranges.
- Looking ahead, we have wholesale inventories tonight, then tomorrow NFIP small business sentiment and NY Fed inflation expectations. The main focus will be on Wednesday's CPI print though.
JGBS: Futures Edge Up, Cash JGB Yields Firm, Back End Leads
JGB futures sit slightly above end Friday Friday levels from last week. The June future last 139.20, -.15 versus settlement levels. Outside of a modest rise at the start of the session, we have traded fairly tight ranges so far in Monday trade. A modest rebound in US Tsy 10yr futures has likely seen some positive spill over.
- The local data calendar saw positive Q1 GDP revisions, but these didn't impact JGB sentiment. Consumption was revised slightly higher, while inventories contributed more to growth than the initial estimate. Business spending remained positive but was revised down. Overall q/q growth was flat (from an initial estimate of -0.2%).
- For cash JGB yields, the bias is higher, but we sit away from best levels for the 10yr. We were last near 1.48% (session highs rest at 1.491%). It has been a similar backdrop across other parts of the curve. The 30yr has seen some slight outperformance in yield terms, up close to 4bps, last around 2.92%.
- Focus remains on how government issuance may chance, and/or BOJ bond buying shifts as well. We haven't seen any fresh developments on this front today though.
- PM Ishiba has been on the news wires stating that public and financial market trust in Japan's finances must be maintained (via RTRS).
BONDS: NZGB Yields Firm, But Away From Session Highs
New Zealand government bond yields sit firmer but away from session highs. Spill over from softer US Tsy yields, particularly at the front end of the curve, has been evident as Asia Pac Monday trade has unfolded.
- The 10yr was last around 4.64%, still up around 3bps for the session. Earlier highs were close to 4.67%. Other parts of the curve are up around 2-3bps, except for the 2yr, which is back to flat, last around 3.39%. The US 2yr struggled to build on Friday momentum, we were last near 4.00%.
- NZ-US 2yr swap spreads were last near -62bps, just up from Friday lows.
- On the data front, we had Q1 manufacturing volumes up 2.4%q/q, against a revised 1.2% gain in Q4. Activity was +5.1%q/q, versus 3.0% in Q4.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway was interviewed today on Radio NZ and said that the central bank expects core inflation to moderate towards the 2% band mid-point by end-2025 going into 2026 despite the recent pickup in headline inflation. He also expects growth to improve later in the year helped by easier monetary policy, but the “labour market is pretty flat”.
- The local data calendar is empty tomorrow.
FOREX: US$ Weaker As Yields Fall Following Friday’s Rise, A&/NZ$ Outperform
The BBDXY USD index is down 0.2% today at 1209.86 off the intraday low of 1209.18 with the fall broad based across G10 currencies. It reached 1211.95 early in the session but has been pressured by lower US bond yields with the 2-year down around 3bp from Friday. Kiwi and Aussie have benefited the most as risk appetite also improved and drove equity markets higher across the region.
- NZDUSD is up 0.4% today to 0.6038, close to the intraday high of 0.6042. Earlier Q1 manufacturing volumes were strong up 2.4% q/q, while RBNZ Chief Economist Conway expects core inflation to fall to the band mid-point but noted that the labour market remains lacklustre.
- AUDUSD has trended higher and is currently up 0.4% to 0.6518. Initial resistance is at 0.6538, 5 June high. AUDNZD is slightly higher at 1.0796 following a peak of 1.0803 but has not been able to hold breaks above 1.08.
- USDJPY is down 0.3% to 144.47, close to the intraday low of 144.35. Japanese data today on balance were slightly stronger with Q1 GDP revised up to flat on the quarter from -0.2% q/q, the Eco Watchers survey rose in May and the April trade deficit was slightly lower than expected.
- EURUSD is 0.2% higher at 1.1418 as is GBPUSD at 1.3554 leaving EURGBP flat at 0.8424.
- USDCAD is up 0.1% to 1.3684 after outperforming the G10 on Friday.
ASIA STOCKS: Major Asia Pac Markets Firmer, Kospi Continues To Outperform
Asian equity markets are mostly trading with a positive footing in the first part of Monday trade. The Nikkei 225 is up around 1%, likewise for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong. The Kospi continues to be an outperformer, up over 1.6%.
- We had a positive lead from US markets on Friday, the SPX up a little over 1%. US data beats, particularly on the wages may have helped. Also, today in London we have US-China trade talks resuming. Positive themes around exports of rare earths resuming to the US and the EU is another positive ahead of these talks.
- Fallout from protests in major US cities (with Trump calling in the National Guard for Los Angeles) is not impacting US equity sentiment greatly at this stage.
- Still, China's CSI 300 is up only modestly, last +0.18% at the lunchtime break, putting the index near 3881. Earlier China data showed CPI remain in deflation, while PPI deflation worsened further. This underscores on-going policy support needs in 2025. On the trade front, export and imports where both below forecasts, with trade to the US continuing to fall.
- The HSI is up +1% at the break, with the tech sub index up +2.3% at this stage.
- The Kospi continues to outperform, up over 1.6%. This puts the index within striking distance of July 2024 highs around 2900. Offshore investors have bought $348mn of local shares today. Optimism around the domestic outlook continue to buoy sentiment.
- In South East Asia, gains are more modest, mostly under 0.50%. Australian and Indonesian markets are closed today.
OIL: Crude Holds Friday’s Gains As US-China Trade Talks Scrutinised
Oil prices have held onto Friday’s 2% gains and are only slightly lower during today’s APAC trading. News that US-China trade talks would take place in London on Monday and data showing no deterioration in the US labour market in May despite heightened trade uncertainty drove the jump in prices last week. WTI is currently down 0.1% to $64.52/bbl, close to the intraday low of $64.47, while Brent is -0.1% to $66.41/bbl following $66.36. The USD index is down 0.2%.
- Oil markets have been concerned that increased protectionism would weigh on global energy demand and so they will be monitoring US-China negotiations closely. A lack of an agreement would likely significantly impact China’s domestic demand and thus oil consumption as it is the world’s largest importer of crude.
- Supply developments remain in focus as OPEC normalises output and the sanctions outlook continues to be unclear. In terms of demand, the US driving season, which began at the end of May, will also be watched closely for signs of weakness.
- Volatility in the oil market has been low recently and futures structures are bullish with the Brent prompt spread widening further in backwardation, according to Bloomberg.
- Later US April wholesale data and May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations print. The ECB’s Elderson speaks. The focus will be on Wednesday’s May US CPI and Friday’s Uni of Michigan June survey.
Gold Little Changed Today, Significant Risks Persist Though
Gold prices are currently slightly higher during today’s APAC session and off the intraday low of $3293.64/oz. They are up to $3311.4, just below support at $3313.2, 20-day EMA. Better risk appetite is pressuring gold, while the softer US dollar (USD BBDXY -0.2%) and lower US yields are supporting it.
- Bullion will be monitoring progress closely when the US and China meet later today in London to discuss trade. Any sign that the two sides are unlikely to agree would likely increase safe-haven flows into the yellow metal.
- Data showing that the US jobs market was resilient in May to the increased trade tensions weighed on gold prices on Friday.
- US fiscal developments are also important. Thus, Thursday’s US Treasury bond auction and news on the likelihood of President Trump’s tax cut bill passing the senate will be watched closely. Increased fiscal risks have also driven safe haven flows.
- Silver has range traded and is currently up 0.2% to $36.05. It has moved between $35.92 and $36.09, also between initial support and resistance.
- Equities are stronger with the Nikkei up 1.0% and Hang Seng +1.0% but S&P e-mini down 0.2%. Oil prices are slightly lower with WTI -0.1% to $64.52/bbl. Copper is flat and iron ore is back below $95/t.
- Later US April wholesale data and May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations print. The ECB’s Elderson speaks. The focus will be on Wednesday’s May US CPI and Friday’s Uni of Michigan June survey.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 09/06/2025 | 0500/1400 |  JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 09/06/2025 | 0900/1100 |  EU | ECB Elderson On Rule Of Law At Italian Court | |
| 09/06/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** |  US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 10/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | * |  GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/06/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
