ASIA STOCKS: Major Asia Pac Markets Firmer, Kospi Continues To Outperform
Jun-09 04:20
Asian equity markets are mostly trading with a positive footing in the first part of Monday trade. The Nikkei 225 is up around 1%, likewise for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong. The Kospi continues to be an outperformer, up over 1.6%.
- We had a positive lead from US markets on Friday, the SPX up a little over 1%. US data beats, particularly on the wages may have helped. Also, today in London we have US-China trade talks resuming. Positive themes around exports of rare earths resuming to the US and the EU is another positive ahead of these talks.
- Fallout from protests in major US cities (with Trump calling in the National Guard for Los Angeles) is not impacting US equity sentiment greatly at this stage.
- Still, China's CSI 300 is up only modestly, last +0.18% at the lunchtime break, putting the index near 3881. Earlier China data showed CPI remain in deflation, while PPI deflation worsened further. This underscores on-going policy support needs in 2025. On the trade front, export and imports where both below forecasts, with trade to the US continuing to fall.
- The HSI is up +1% at the break, with the tech sub index up +2.3% at this stage.
- The Kospi continues to outperform, up over 1.6%. This puts the index within striking distance of July 2024 highs around 2900. Offshore investors have bought $348mn of local shares today. Optimism around the domestic outlook continue to buoy sentiment.
- In South East Asia, gains are more modest, mostly under 0.50%. Australian and Indonesian markets are closed today.
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MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
May-09 20:17
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
May-09 20:15
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
May-09 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
