ISRAEL / IRAN Tensions (REUTERS) Israel and Iran attacked each other for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, and U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran, citing what he said was the country's rejection of a deal to curb nuclear weapons development. Trump was due to leave the Group of Seven summit in Canada later on Monday, a day early, due to the Middle East situation, the White House said. Fox News reported he would convene his National Security Council.
ISRAEL / IRAN Tensions (REUTERS) European foreign ministers told their Iranian counterpart in a call on Monday to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and refrain from escalating conflict with Israel, to which Iran's foreign minister said Tehran's priority was to confront Israel for now, according to a French diplomatic source. Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities in the early hours of Friday, just two days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators were due to resume talks to forge a new deal on Iran's nuclear programme.
UK
TRADE (BBC): “President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to reduce tariffs on UK cars being shipped to the US, which will bring into force parts of a tariff deal agreed between the two countries last month.”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “Donald Trump and Keir Starmer have agreed that the multi-billion dollar AUKUS submarine pact will go ahead, despite a U.S. review.”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “Grace Cassy, an adviser to the British government’s defense review, tells POLITICO the U.K. has a ‘way to go’ on taking up cutting-edge military tech.”
EU
TRADE (POLITICO): “‘Donald is right’ and China is the problem, EU chief says. Beijing’s subsidies should be a reason to work together, not tariff each other, Ursula von der Leyen argues.
TRADE (BBG): “ The EU has refused to hold the EU-China High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue with China due to a lack of progress on numerous trade disputes, the Financial Times reports, citing four unidentified people familiar with the matter. The dialog, often serves to lay groundwork for the EU-China leaders’ summit, is set for July 24-25 in Beijing this year, according to the people. China wants to have the dialog, but EU is not seeing progress in all talks”
TRADE (POLITICO): “As talks between Brussels and Washington continue, the EU’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho told POLITICO the bloc isn’t ready to accept the U.S.’s 10 percent global tariff.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “French President Emmanuel Macron said he still believes Washington could back stronger sanctions against Russia, despite Donald Trump earlier suggesting otherwise.”
SPAIN (POLITICO): “Socialist politicians from Spain’s cities and regions want embattled Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to hold snap national elections in the face of mounting corruption scandals — even though they know their party is virtually guaranteed to lose.
US
G7 MEETING (BBC)US President Donald Trump has cut short his visit to the Group of Seven summit in Canada, with the White House saying he must return to Washington to deal with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. "I have to be back early for obvious reasons," Trump said, as reports circulated he had instructed the White House National Security Council to meet upon his return. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier announced the "deployment of additional capabilities" to the Middle East to enhance the Pentagon's "defensive posture" in the region.
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “Trump: ‘There would be no war’ if Russia were in G8. The U.S. leader claimed Moscow wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if it hadn’t been banned from the forum.”
OTHER
GEOPOLITICS (POLITICO): “World’s nuclear disarmament era over, report warns. China, India, Pakistan, and Israel are among those increasing their nuclear muscle.”
G7 (POLITICO): “G7 leaders on Monday steered clear of using overly strong language on keeping AI safe and managing the risks associated with the technology at their summit in Canada.”
JAPAN (MNI) The Bank of Japan Board on Tuesday unanimously decided to keep its unsecured overnight call rate at 0.50%, while announcing a slower pace of JGB purchase reductions to JPY200 billion per quarter from the current JPY400 billion. The BOJ said it will begin reducing JGB purchases at the slower pace from April 2026 through March 2027, with the program to be reviewed again in June 2026. The Bank also projected that its long-term JGB purchases in Q12027 will total about JPY2.1 trillion, down from JPY2.9 trillion in Q1 2026. “In case of a rapid rise in long-term interest rates, [the Bank] will make nimble responses by, for example, increasing the amount of JGB purchases and conducting fixed-rate purchase operations of JGBs – both of which can be done regardless of the monthly schedule of JGB purchases – and the Fund-Supplying Operations against Pooled Collateral,” the BOJ said in a statement.
CHINA
MNI China Press Digest June 17:Fiscal, Manufacturing, Property
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY1.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY197.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY1.3 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY198.6 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4737% at 09:52 am local time from the close of 1.5261% on Monday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 47 on Monday, compared with the close of 45 on Friday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity conditions, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1746 on Tuesday, compared with 7.1789 set on Monday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1819 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND MAY FOOD PRICES +0.5% M/M; APR. +0.8%
SOUTH KOREA MAY IMPORT PRICES -5.0% Y/Y; APR. -2.6% SOUTH KOREA MAY EXPORT PRICES -2.4% Y/Y; APR. +0.4%
The TYU5 range has been 110-15+ to 110.23 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-20, up 0-05 from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield moved lower; it is trading around 3.948%, down 0.02 from its close.
The US 10-year yield moved lower, it is trading around 4.43%, down 0.02 from its close.
"WHITE HOUSE DISCUSSING WITH IRAN POSSIBILITY OF MEETING BETWEEN U.S. ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF AND IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI, TRUMP TEAM PROPOSES IRAN TALKS THIS WEEK ON NUCLEAR DEAL, CEASEFIRE - AXIOS" - RTRS
US President Trump has posted on Truth Social, stating that Iran should have signed the deal he told them to sign, while also re-iterating that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He also noted that everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.
The 10-year yield has bounced strongly off its 4.30/35% support, this area needs to hold if yields are to move higher. The range looks to be 4.30% - 4.60% for now a break either side would provide a clearer direction. It seems traders for the moment are more concerned with the move in oil and the implications it has for inflation and the FOMC this week than buying treasuries as a safe haven.
Data/Events: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index
JGB futures have weakened to session lows, -38 compared to settlement levels, following the BoJ Policy Decision.
The BoJ kept rates at 0.50%, as widely expected. That decision from the central bank board was unanimous. The bond buying program is unchanged through to the end of March 2026. The central bank did announce that it would trim bond buying by 200bn/per quarter from April 2026 next year. The current pace had been at a reduction of 400bn per quarter. There was one dissenter to this decision, board member Tamura, who wanted to keep the pace around 400bn. He also argued that long term rates should be determined by the market.
The BoJ emphasised that tapering will proceed in a predictable and cautious manner, but left the door open to adjustments if market conditions require.
The BoJ views price trends as broadly in line with its 2% inflation target in the second half of its outlook period.
Cash JGBs are 1-4bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 7-10-year underperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.4bps higher at 1.482% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates are 2-5bps higher. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance and Core Machine Orders data.
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) are weaker and trading near Sydney session lows on a local data-light day.
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after paring earlier strength. Today’s US calendar will see Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
US President Trump has posted on Truth Social, stating that Iran should have signed the deal he told them to sign, while also reiterating that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He also noted that everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.
Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -18bps.
The bills strip is cheaper, with pricing -1 to -3.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given an 85% probability, with a cumulative 76bps of easing priced by year-end.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index. May's jobs data is on Thursday. Bloomberg consensus sees a 20k rise in new jobs, in line with the 3-month average, with the unemployment and participation rates stable at 4.1% and 67.1% respectively.
The AOFM plans to sell A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.
NZGBs closed near session bests, with benchmark yields 1-2bps lower.
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session.
The NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials were 3-4bps tighter on the day.
Monthly price data was mixed in May, with food, power, accommodation and alcohol seeing a rise in inflation, while air travel, rents and petrol fell. The series released account for 46.5% of the quarterly CPI, with Q2 due to be released on July 21, which the RBNZ expects to rise 0.5% q/q & 2.6% y/y. June monthly indices print earlier on July 17. RBNZ and NZIER compiled consensus accept a near-term pick-up in inflation but continue to have it returning to the mid-point of the 1-3% target band.
Swap rates closed 1bp lower.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly firmer across meetings. 4bps of easing is priced for July, with a cumulative 27bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer Confidence, Q1 Current Account and Non-Resident Bond Holdings data. Q1 GDP is due for release on Thursday.
On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6045 - 0.6072 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6070. A relatively quiet session for the NZD, as it continues to build for an extension higher.
NZ Data - Food & Power Inflation Higher As Petrol & Rents Ease. Monthly price data was mixed in May with food, power, accommodation and alcohol seeing a rise in inflation, while air travel, rents and petrol fell.
GDP Preview - Q1 GDP Likely To Be Robust Due To Agriculture & Manufacturing. The focus of the week will be on Thursday’s Q1 GDP release. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting another 0.7% q/q increase in production-based GDP, driven by the primary and manufacturing sectors, leaving the annual rate still down 0.8% y/y but up from Q4’s -1.1% y/y. Thus, expenditure-based GDP should see a significant contribution from agricultural and also services (tourism) exports. This is stronger than the RBNZ’s May forecast of a 0.4% q/q rise.
The USD’s inability to bounce given the geopolitical backdrop is a worrying sign, the NZD will continue to benefit from its malaise.
The NZD continues to find solid support around the 0.6000 area and has built a decent base from which to push higher from.
While the support around 0.5850 holds in NZD/USD there should be buyers around on dips. A clear sustained break above 0.6050/0.6100 and the move could start to accelerate forcing some shorts to further reduce positioning.
CFTC Data showed Asset managers paring back their shorts slightly over the week, the leverage community did likewise.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0757 - 1.0777, currently trading 1.0760. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out last week towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, the first target looks to be around 1.0650.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1201.63 - 1203.68 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1201.”FX traders will be impressed at the PBOC’s confidence in the yuan, despite all the uncertainty around the Middle East. Meanwhile, US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, including renminbi.”(BBG)
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1543 - 1.1567, Asia is currently trading 1.1565. EUR has rejected the move above 1.1600 but dips should continue to find demand, first support back towards the 1.1400 area then 1.1100/1200. EUR/USD looked to have broken the pivotal 1.1500 area last week, this needs to be sustained to signal a larger move higher.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3558 - 1.3580, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3575. The GBP continues to hold above its Weekly pivot around 1.3500, it needs a catalyst for the move higher to regain momentum. First support seen back towards 1.3400/50.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1787 - 7.1860, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1746. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1820. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.50 - 145.11, Asia is currently trading around 144.60. USD/JPY has tested lower after the BOJ but has stalled again back towards the 144.50 area, the focus will now turn to the press conference. A market that is very long JPY is having its conviction tested at the moment, especially in the crosses.
On Hold As Expected, Pace Of Bond Taper Slows : The BoJ kept rates at 0.50%, as widely expected. That decision from the central bank board was unanimous. The bond buying program is unchanged through to end March 2026. The central bank did announce that it would trim bond buying by 200bn/per quarter from April 2026 next year. The current pace had been at a reduction of 400bn per quarter. There was one dissenter to this decision, board member Tamura, who wanted to keep the pace around 400bn. He also argued that long term rates should be determined by the market.
(Bloomberg)- “Asian currencies are looking increasingly vulnerable as oil prices climb on the back of escalating Middle East tensions, threatening to reverse the supportive backdrop that’s buoyed regional FX in recent months. Historically, falling oil prices have gone hand-in-hand with stronger Asian currencies, given that the region’s biggest economies including China, Japan, India and South Korea are major energy importers.” See Graph Below
USD/JPY continues to hold above its support back towards the 142.00 area, with oil surging again and US yields bouncing this pair has drifted back to the middle of its recent range. The JPY longs are feeling the pressure in the crosses.
Price is back in its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either side of that to get a clearer direction. The large interest around 145.00 expired overnight.
The market still seems very confident of a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risk of pullbacks increase. A break above 147.00 would be needed to challenge the conviction of any shorts.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.25.($350m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.00($1.85b June 20).
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6503 - 0.6536 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6530. The AUD tried lower initially as Trump told Tehran to evacuate, later headlines proposing talking between the US and Iran saw it bounce off the 0.6500 area.
"WHITE HOUSE DISCUSSING WITH IRAN POSSIBILITY OF MEETING BETWEEN U.S. ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF AND IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI, TRUMP TEAM PROPOSES IRAN TALKS THIS WEEK ON NUCLEAR DEAL, CEASEFIRE - AXIOS" - RTRS
The AUD saw good demand sub 0.6500 and is back to testing the 0.6550 area.
Price remains in the 0.6350 - 0.6550 range for now, a sustained break above 0.6550/0.6600 is needed for the move higher to accelerate. The way the USD is trading across the board points to this being tested at some point.
Expect buyers to continue to be around on dips while the support in the AUD/USD holds, a close back below 0.6350 is needed to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD 1.1b June 19)
CFTC Data shows Asset managers maintaining their shorts, the Leveraged community though continued to build up their shorts again.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 94.18 - 94.66, it is trading currently around 94.50. Choppy price action as the pair establishes a range between 92.00 - 96.00. A break back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to see the move lower regain momentum and the focus turn back to the year's lows again.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.50 - 145.11, Asia is currently trading around 144.60. USD/JPY has tested lower after the BOJ but has stalled again back towards the 144.50 area, the focus will now turn to the press conference. A market that is very long JPY is having its conviction tested at the moment, especially in the crosses.
On Hold As Expected, Pace Of Bond Taper Slows : The BoJ kept rates at 0.50%, as widely expected. That decision from the central bank board was unanimous. The bond buying program is unchanged through to end March 2026. The central bank did announce that it would trim bond buying by 200bn/per quarter from April 2026 next year. The current pace had been at a reduction of 400bn per quarter. There was one dissenter to this decision, board member Tamura, who wanted to keep the pace around 400bn. He also argued that long term rates should be determined by the market.
(Bloomberg)- “Asian currencies are looking increasingly vulnerable as oil prices climb on the back of escalating Middle East tensions, threatening to reverse the supportive backdrop that’s buoyed regional FX in recent months. Historically, falling oil prices have gone hand-in-hand with stronger Asian currencies, given that the region’s biggest economies including China, Japan, India and South Korea are major energy importers.” See Graph Below
USD/JPY continues to hold above its support back towards the 142.00 area, with oil surging again and US yields bouncing this pair has drifted back to the middle of its recent range. The JPY longs are feeling the pressure in the crosses.
Price is back in its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either side of that to get a clearer direction. The large interest around 145.00 expired overnight.
The market still seems very confident of a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risk of pullbacks increase. A break above 147.00 would be needed to challenge the conviction of any shorts.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.25.($350m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.00($1.85b June 20).
Major bourses in Asia were lower today as the uncertainty in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, in a day light on economic news in the region. Korea's KOSPI had closed in on 3,000 early in the trading day only for a complete turnaround and head lower, following the lead from elsewhere.
In China, the Hang Seng drifted marginally lower by -0.13% and remains down by -0.55% over the last five trading days. The CSI 300 followed, down -0.15%, the Shanghai Composite down -0.19% and the Shenzhen Composite is down a mere --0.04% and is barely positive over the last five trading days.
The KOSPI is down -0.34% in what was a complete turnaround having rallied early. It remains one of the strongest in the region over the last five trading days up over 2%
The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.39% following yesterday's modest gains.
The Jakarta Composite is up by +0.70% taking back yesterday's losses of -0.68% to stem four consecutive days of losses.
The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is up +0.28% whilst the PSEi in the Philippines has gained +0.53%
The NIFTY 50 in India is down -0.36% given back from yesterday's gains of +0.92%
Oil prices have unwound some of Monday’s losses after US President Trump said that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal when it had the chance and that people should evacuate Tehran. He left the G7 meeting early to return to Washington to discuss the Iran-Israel situation. Brent is up 0.7% to $73.76/bbl after a high of $74.85 earlier. WTI is 0.8% higher at $72.35/bbl following a peak of $73.69. The USD index is down slightly.
Activity around the key Strait of Hormuz, that sees around 30% of global oil exports transit through, remains a major watch point. There are the risks that Iran closes it as a protest or Israel strikes infrastructure in the area. There was a shipping warning today following a fire sighted off the UAE coast but Ambrey confirmed that it was “not security related”, according to Bloomberg. Shipping around the Middle East has already been disrupted by the conflict.
On Monday, there were reports that Iran was looking to restart negotiations on a nuclear agreement assuming the US doesn’t join the conflict. At this stage, Israel seemed unwilling to agree to a ceasefire as it wants to significantly damage Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure.
Industry-based data on US inventories are released Tuesday and will be monitored for signs of falling demand given current trade and global uncertainty.
Later US May retail sales, trade prices, IP, April business inventories and NAHB June housing index are released but the attention is on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and outlook. The euro area/German June ZEW also print today.
Gold prices are off the intraday low of $3374.18/oz to be up 0.2% to $3393.1 and have traded in a relatively narrow range today. They reached a high of $3403.31 early in the session following US President Trump comments that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal when it had the chance and that people should evacuate Tehran. He will leave the G7 meeting early to return to Washington to discuss the Iran-Israel situation.
Bullion has found some support from a slightly lower US dollar and US yields.
Citibank believes that weaker demand and Fed rate cuts will drive gold prices back below $3000/oz over coming quarters, according to Bloomberg.
Silver is 0.3% higher today at $36.43 to be up 10.5% in June, reinforcing the bullish trend. It is off its intraday low of $36.15. It continues to trade between initial support at $34.84, 20-day EMA, and resistance at $36.89, 9 June high.
Equities are generally lower with the Hang Seng down 0.1%, S&P e-mini -0.4% but Nikkei up 0.5%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.8% to $72.33/bbl. Copper is down 0.4%.
Later US May retail sales, trade prices, IP, April business inventories and NAHB June housing index are released but the attention is on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and outlook. The euro area/German June ZEW also print today.