MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: Ueda Sharpens Dec Rate Hike
Dec-02 06:00By: Jamie Grant
Europe
Japan's Minister of Finance Katayama made it clear that "monetary policy should be left to the BOJ."
For the third consecutive month, CPI in Korea was above the 2% target for the November period, supporting the recent hold on interest rates by the BOK.
The US Commerce Department has agreed to invest as much as $150 million in xLight Inc., a chip technology startup tied to former Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger. " according to BBG.
Despite demands from Washington to reach a peace deal ending the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday insisted that there's "still a lot of work to do before any agreement.” (Politico)
The day ahead sees the BOE Financial Stability Report, EU Unemployment, US Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks, US Vehicle Sales and European Global Services PMI
US bond futures remain higher in the Asia trading day, though gave back some of the earlier gains. The US 10-Yr (TYH6) is up +01+ to 112-27 having touched 112-29 earlier. TYH6 sits atop the 50-day EMA of 112-27+ with upside resistance above at 113 for the 20-day EMA.
Earlier in the day cash was modestly better across the curve, but the early gains faded in the afternoon, leaving yields mixed and the 10-Yr now firmly above 4%. .
The 2-Yr is at 3.531% : -0.2bps
The 5-Yr is at 3.667% : +0.2bps
The 10-Yr is at 4.088% unch
The 30-yr is at 4.735% : -0.3bps
LOOKING AHEAD to tonight at the Tuesday Data Calendar: Vehicle Sales, Fed VC Bowman Testimony
The issuance schedule is light tonight with the focus on an auction of US$75bn 6-week bills.
JGB futures are stronger, +20 compared to settlement levels, and hovering near session bests after today’s 10-year auction.
The 10-year JGB auction delivered strong results, with the low price beating expectations at 98.50, according to the Bloomberg dealer poll. Moreover, the cover ratio increased to 3.5913x from 2.9734x and the tail shortened to 0.04 from 0.13.
This performance came with an outright yield at a fresh cycle high, around 20bps higher than the level of last month's auction.
The 2s/10s curve was also steeper than the levels at last month's auction and sat at a new cycle high of 86bps.
Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-steepener.
Cash JGBs are slightly richer across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.5bp lower at 1.868% versus today’s fresh cycle high of 1.886%. (see chart)
Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday that even if the policy rate were raised to 0.75% from 0.50%, overall financial conditions would remain accommodative.
Market pricing has shifted sharply recently. BOJ-dated OIS now assigns an 80% probability to a 25bp hike in December, rising to 104% by March 2026.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs (Composite & Services).
Japan’s consumer confidence index posted a fourth straight rise in November, climbing 1.7 points to 37.5 from 35.8 in October, though the government left its overall assessment unchanged, data released by the Cabinet Office on Tuesday showed.
Indexes tracking overall economic well-being, perceptions of income conditions, the labour environment and willingness to buy durable goods all improved.
An official told reporters that the rise in the Nikkei Stock Average appeared to be behind the improvement in sentiment, although the government said it had not asked respondents about the reasons for the change from the previous month.
The government said consumer confidence is recovering.
The sub-index on asset prices, which is not included in the overall confidence calculation, rose to 47.3 in November from 47.0 in October.
The results eased the Bank of Japan’s concerns that private consumption could lose momentum as households remain under pressure from high living costs amid negative real wage growth.
The share of respondents projecting consumer price gains stood at 90.6% in November, down from 92.6% in October, while the share expecting lower prices rose to 3.5% from 2.2%.
Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents forecasting consumer price inflation of more than 5% one year ahead fell to 44.7% in November from 50.5% in October.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday that even if the policy rate were raised to 0.75% from 0.50%, overall financial conditions would remain accommodative.
When asked about the merits of a rate increase and the likelihood of a move this month, Ueda did not shy away from discussing specifics, including the probability of a hike, during the press conference.
Market pricing has shifted sharply. BOJ-dated OIS now assigns an 80% probability to a 25bp hike in December, rising to 104% by March 2026. As recently as 21 November, markets saw less than a 20% chance of a December move.
Notably, investors are now pricing in two 25bp hikes by October 2026.
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -6.0) are weaker, hovering near session cheaps ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 GDP release.
Bloomberg consensus expects Q3 GDP growth to accelerate to 0.7% q/q and 2.2% y/y, from 0.6% and 1.8% in Q2. A stronger print would give the RBA further justification to extend its pause.
Net exports detracted 0.1pp from Q3 quarterly GDP growth, which, with the inventory print, would normally pose a downside risk to the consensus’ forecast of +0.7% q/q but public demand’s 0.4pp contribution is an upside risk.
Cash ACGBs are 2-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +53bps, its highest since mid-2022. (see chart)
The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -4.
RBA-dated OIS pricing shows zero probability of a 25bp rate cut in December.
The recent firming in rate expectations stems from the stronger-than-expected Monthly CPI released on 26 November. OIS pricing is now 5–20bps higher for meetings beyond December compared with pre-CPI levels.
The market has also shifted to assign a 59% probability of a 25bp hike by December 2026.
The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday
Net exports detracted 0.1pp from Q3 quarterly GDP growth, which with the inventory print would normally pose a downside risk to consensus’ forecast of +0.7% q/q but public demand’s 0.4pp contribution is an upside risk. Q3 national accounts print on Wednesday and will also include productivity growth. With inflation above target, an upside surprise to growth is likely to add to reasons to expect monetary policy to be on hold.
There was a 0.2pp contribution to Q3 GDP quarterly growth from public consumption and another 0.2pp from public investment. In Q2, consumption was +0.2pp while capex fell 0.2pp.
Q3 data also showed a 0.2% q/q rise in real household spending, 6.4% q/q jump in private investment, while net exports detracted 0.1pp from growth, inventories fell 0.9% q/q and construction work done 0.7% q/q.
Analysts’ GDP estimates range from 0.2% to 0.9% q/q with most between 0.6% and 0.7% with the annual rate around 2.0-2.3%.
Of the big four domestic banks, CBA and NAB are at consensus while ANZ is below with +0.6% q/q and Westpac above at 0.8% q/q.
The number of building approvals fell 6.4% m/m in October, weaker than expected, after rising 11.1% m/m to be down 1.8% y/y. Multi-dwelling approvals have been driving the volatility in the headline number but annual growth in both it and private houses is soft and likely to add to already strong house price growth. Approvals have moved sideways this year.
Private houses fell 2.1% m/m in October to be up only 1.3% y/y but better than September’s -0.5% y/y. 3-month momentum turned positive in October though.
Multi-dwelling unit approvals fell 13.1% m/m after rising 25% m/m but are now down 3.3% y/y with 3-month momentum falling further into negative territory.
The value of residential building fell 11.8% m/m in October after a record high in September. The RBA is watching rising housing-related inflation. Non-residential values rose 11.6% m/m to be up 32.4% y/y.
Net exports detracted 0.1pp from Q3 quarterly GDP growth, which with the inventory print would normally pose a downside risk to consensus’ forecast of +0.7% q/q but public demand’s 0.4pp contribution is an upside risk.
Q3 balance of payments was also released and not only did the current account deficit widen, when a narrowing was forecast, but it was revised substantially higher in Q2 to $16.2bn. Q3 was $0.4bn higher at $16.6bn, the highest since Q4 2024, as the trade surplus narrowed.
Australia current account A$bn
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
The Q3 terms of trade rose 0.3% q/q but was still down 0.2% y/y. It has been trending lower since H2 2022. Export prices fell 0.1% q/q but import prices were down 0.4% q/q due to the stronger AUD but prices were higher for key bulk commodity exports. There was a slight quarterly increase in both the goods and services terms of trade.
Australia terms of trade
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Goods exports rose 0.9% q/q, due to coal and ores, and services +1.0% q/q, while goods imports increased 1.4% q/q, driven by fuels, and services +0.5% q/q. Annual growth in goods shipments rose 3.9%, the first increase since Q1 2023, boosted by sharply higher gold prices increasing the value of non-monetary gold exports.
The primary income deficit narrowed $0.3bn to $18.69bn due to higher profits for Australian direct equity investments and ongoing robust returns on overseas portfolio investments.
There were also strong overseas inflows into Australian debt and equities in Q3 with $66.6bn of domestically issued debt securities purchased, highest since Q4 2023, driven by ACGBs.
NZGBs closed showing a twist-steepener, with benchmark yields 1bp lower to 5bps higher.
As it stands, yields are 16-32bps higher than pre-RBNZ levels, led by the 5-year (see chart).
On a relative basis as well, NZGBs have underperformed recently, with the NZ-US 10-year yield differential closing at +28bps. For context, this differential sat around zero around two weeks ago.
RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 2bps of easing is priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 33bps of tightening.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Commodity Price data.
On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$150mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$225mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$75mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
The USD/JPY range today has been 155.43 - 155.77 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 155.60, +0.10%. The pair has tried to move higher after its strong bounce from the lows seen in New York. The market is pricing in the fact that the Yen move looks like it could force the BOJ into action in December. This should keep the move that looked about to go parabolic a little more contained. Technically USD/JPY continues to look like it wants to test higher with the first big support back toward the 154-155 area seeing lots of demand on the first attempt. On the day I suspect we will consolidate, looking for sellers to reemerge back toward the 156.00-30 initially. First strong support remains in the 153.00-155.00 area.
OMFIF printed a commentary on Japanese Foreign Exchange Policy: “The MoF feels it has to do something. Rather than Japan confronting its policy mix, the finance minister jawbones about the weak yen, threatens intervention and decries that markets are one-sided, disorderly and not reflecting underlying fundamentals. But while significant short positions may occasionally build up, trading in yen is not disorderly – business is getting done, liquidity is good and bid/offer spreads are narrow. Rather, markets are reflecting fundamentals and voting on Japanese economic policy. Ultimately, the weak yen in significant part reflects Japanese policy incoherence.” https://www.omfif.org/2025/12/japanese-foreign-exchange-policy-riddled-in-contradictions/
MNI AU - A BoJ Hike Fully Priced By March With Two Hikes By October 2026:
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday that even if the policy rate were raised to 0.75% from 0.50%, overall financial conditions would remain accommodative.
"JAPAN’S 30-YEAR YIELD HITS FRESH RECORD HIGH SINCE 1999 DEBUT" - BBG
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.00($2.59b),156.00($885m), 156.50($951m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 153.00($1.2b Dec 4), 155.00($1.4b Dec 5), 155.50($1.11b Dec 3) - BBG.
The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 94 Points
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6538 - 0.6552 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6545, -0.10%. The AUD/USD has had a subdued session again as risk attempts to stabilize after its fragile start to the week. The AUD is consolidating around the pivot toward 0.6560-80 within its wider 0.6350-0.6700 range. On the day, I still think risk-reward probably favours a slight short skew but back above 0.6580 and the focus will turn to the highs of the range. On the day support should be seen back toward the 0.6500-20 area initially.
MNI AU - Slight Q3 Net Export Detraction As Trade Surplus Narrows: Net exports detracted 0.1pp from Q3 quarterly GDP growth, which with the inventory print would normally pose a downside risk to consensus’ forecast of +0.7% q/q but public demand’s 0.4pp contribution is an upside risk. Q3 balance of payments was also released and not only did the current account deficit widen, when a narrowing was forecast, but it was revised substantially higher in Q2 to $16.2bn. Q3 was $0.4bn higher at $16.6bn, the highest since Q4 2024, as the trade surplus narrowed.
MNI AU - Sideways Dwelling Approvals To Add To Housing Inflation: The number of building approvals fell 6.4% m/m in October, weaker than expected, after rising 11.1% m/m to be down 1.8% y/y. Multi-dwelling approvals have been driving the volatility in the headline number but annual growth in both it and private houses is soft and likely to add to already strong house price growth. Approvals have moved sideways this year.
"ANZ NO LONGER SEES ONE FINAL RBA RATE CUT IN 1H 2026" - BBG
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6800(AUD532m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6490(AUD710m Dec 4), 0.6500(AUD1.13b Dec 5) - BBG
The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 36 Points
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5719 - 0.5729 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5725, -0.05%. The NZD/USD has had a subdued session again as risk attempts to stabilise after its fragile start to the week. Focus will be on the ability of the market to turn the poor start of the week around. On the day I still remain wary but the NZD remains well supported on dips, a sustained push back above 0.5760 should see the focus turn back toward the more important 0.5800-50 resistance. On the day support looks to be back toward the 0.5670-0.5690 area
MNI AU - Dairy Weighs On ToT, Q3 Consumer Imports Rise: NZ’s terms of trade fell 2.1% q/q in Q3 driven by a 1.6% q/q drop in export prices as the dairy component was down 1.6% q/q. Import prices rose 0.5% q/q to be up 1.8% y/y. Q3 was the first quarterly fall in the terms of trade since Q3 2023 but it is still up 7.2% y/y after 12.2% y/y in Q2.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5700(NZD356m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5575(NZD547m Dec 3), 0.5700(NZD332m Dec 5), 0.5730(NZD564m Dec 3) - BBG
The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 38 Points
Markets were mixed across the region with Japan and Korea up modestly whilst China's major onshore bourses were all lower. In China authorities are focusing on crypto with the PBOC signaling that tougher enforcement are intended, spooking crypto markets which fell today. The BOJ"s Ueda continues to impact markets with further speculation of a December rate hike and key Japanese ministers making it clear that monetary policy is for the BOJ to decide. Japan's FANUC saw it's share rise over 6% on news it is partnering with Nvidia to include Nvidia's open-source robotic simulation in factory lines. The markets will look ahead to the US for signs of confirmation of a December rate hike, a move seen as stabilizing some markets in Asia. Korea saw the US announce a reduction in Auto tariffs and expectations for the approval of the 2026 budget plan, which will included changes on dividend income driving sentiment today.
The NIKKEI is up +0.20% with FANUC the biggest gainer today, spurring gains for other robotic and heavy machinery stocks.
The major onshore bourses in China are all down, with CSI 300 down -0.6% and Shenzhen down -0.7% whilst the Hang Seng bucked that trend to be modestly up +0.11%.
The KOSPI was up also, by +1.85% today with the tariff reduction specifically fueling gains in carmakers like Hyundai Motor, which jumped over 4.5%, and Kia Corp, which rose just over 4%. Additionally major chip stocks including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, also performed strongly, which contributed to the overall market sentiment.
India's NIFTY 50 continues to moderate from last weeks high, declining -0.38% Tuesday with Rupee weakness attributed to the decline as markets await the RBI decision.
Malaysia and Indonesia's major bourses are strong Tuesday, with the JCI up +0.65% and the FTSE Malay up +0.4%. Recent gains for the FTSE Malay KLCI has seen it trend above all major moving averages and at 1,630 sits above the nearest - the 20-day EMA of 1,620.
The first trading day of Dec saw a mixed net flow trading picture for EM Asia markets, albeit with a negative sum thanks to outflows from Taiwan. All the markets have recorded net outflows in 2025 to date, and it will require a sharp turnaround in Dec inflow momentum to see positive 2025 outcomes by the end of the year. Tech related indices are up from Nov lows, but whether we can retest 2025 highs remains to be seen. Headwinds persist from AI/chip demand/valuation concerns, while the prospect of an easier US monetary policy backdrop remains a positive. Taiwan's Taiex has struggled to hold above 28000 in recent months. For South Korea's Kospi, dips remain supported, but likewise we have struggled to build positive momentum beyond 4000. Kospi versus Kosdaq flow trends will also be eyed.
In India, net outflows to end the month saw YTD outflows get beyond -$16bn again. The RBI is expected to cut rates at the end of this week, while broader sentiment will also be dictated by US-India trade outcomes.
Indonesian positive inflow momentum slowed towards the end of Nov, but it was still the standout for the month of Nov. The trend for the JCI look positive as the authorities look to maintain positive growth momentum into 2026. BI is likely to cut rates more, but will remain mindful of IDR trends.
Elsewhere in SEA, trends were mixed to start Dec, but we mostly saw outflow pressures at the end of Nov.
South Korea's November CPI was unchanged at +2.4% YoY , marginally above expectations of +2.3% YoY, whilst the MoM figure declined less than forecast at -0.2% YoY .
Food prices were up +4.7% YoY, Transport up +3.2% YoY whilst Food prices MoM declined -1.4%.
Core CPI moderated from the prior month to 2.0% YoY.
Market pricing continues to suggest that the BOK could be on hold for some time, with yesterday's move higher in the KT 3-Yr taking the yield premium over the BOK base rate to new near term highs. With November exports improving more than expected, the next key data release will be the 3Q Preliminary GDP out on Dec 3 with market expectations for +1.7%.
Crude has held onto Monday’s gains supported by geopolitical risks related to Ukraine/Russia and Venezuela. Benchmarks rose around 1.5% and are off their intraday lows to be slightly higher in Tuesday’s APAC session. WTI is up 0.2% to $59.42/bbl after falling to $59.33 off a high of $59.67. Brent is 0.1% higher at $63.21/bbl off the session low of $63.14. The US dollar is little changed.
US special envoy Witkoff is in Russia to discuss changes to the original peace plan. Secretary of State Rubio met with Ukrainian officials in Florida on the weekend. President Zelenskyy has noted that an agreement on territory is going to be very difficult, as Ukraine is not prepared to cede unoccupied areas to Russia.
Ukraine struck two Russian tankers and apparently also a wharf used to load Kazakh crude in the Black Sea, which has now stopped. It also continues to target Russian refineries. Diesel prices trended lower through the last 10 days of November but have stabilised this week.
There are reports that there was a meeting at the White House on Venezuela later on Monday. President Trump has suggested closing Venezuelan airspace and may have offered safe passage for Venezuelan President Maduro and his family if they leave. Venezuela was the 17th largest exporter of oil in 2023 (IEA).
Later the Fed’s Bowman testifies before the House Committee but given that the FOMC blackout has begun ahead of the 10 December decision, she is not expected to say anything on monetary policy or the economy. There is little data in the US with November Wards vehicle sales the only release.
November euro area CPI and October unemployment rate are released and the ECB’s Buch speaks. The BoE publishes its Financial Stability Report. CFTC market positions data are scheduled to print.
There appears to have been some profit taking in silver on Tuesday after it rose 8.6% since last Thursday and started to look overbought. The metal is down 1.3% to $57.21/oz off the intraday low at $56.595 and back below resistance at $57.864. Gold continues to range trade with the US dollar, yields and Fed pricing little changed. Bullion is down 0.3% to $4219.0/oz off the intraday low of $4200.08.
Silver reached a record high on Monday at $58.843. Bloomberg estimates that its 14-day RSI is above 70 signalling that it is overbought and also the gold/silver ratio is its lowest in over a year, which can signal a turning point. The metal has benefited from increased Fed rate cut expectations but market tightness has encouraged speculators.
With little information out of the US on Tuesday, gold is likely to remain range bound. Of note on Wednesday are ADP November employment and November services ISM/PMI.
Later the Fed’s Bowman testifies before the House Committee but given that the FOMC blackout has begun ahead of the 10 December decision, she is not expected to say anything on monetary policy or the economy. There is little data in the US with November Wards vehicle sales the only release.
November euro area CPI and October unemployment rate are released and the ECB’s Buch speaks. The BoE publishes its Financial Stability Report. CFTC market positions data are scheduled to print.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
02/12/2025
0700/0700
GB
BOE Financial Stability Report
02/12/2025
0745/0845
FR
Budget Balance
02/12/2025
0900/1000
IT
Unemployment
02/12/2025
1000/1100
**
EU
EZ Unemployment
02/12/2025
1000/1000
**
GB
Gilt Outright Auction Result
02/12/2025
1000/1000
*
GB
Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
02/12/2025
1000/1100
***
EU
EZ HICP Flash
02/12/2025
1000/1100
***
EU
EZ HICP Flash
02/12/2025
1000/1100
***
EU
EZ HICP Flash
02/12/2025
-
***
US
Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
02/12/2025
1355/0855
**
US
Redbook Retail Sales Index
02/12/2025
1500/1000
US
Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
03/12/2025
2200/0900
*
AU
S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
03/12/2025
2200/0900
**
AU
S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
03/12/2025
0030/0930
**
JP
S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
03/12/2025
0030/0930
**
JP
S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
03/12/2025
0030/1130
***
AU
Quarterly GDP
03/12/2025
0145/0945
**
CN
S&P Global Final China Services PMI
03/12/2025
0145/0945
**
CN
S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
03/12/2025
0700/0200
*
TR
Turkey CPI
03/12/2025
0730/0830
***
CH
CPI
03/12/2025
0815/0915
**
ES
S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/12/2025
0815/0915
**
ES
S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
03/12/2025
0845/0945
**
IT
S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/12/2025
0845/0945
**
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
03/12/2025
0850/0950
**
FR
S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/12/2025
0850/0950
**
FR
S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
03/12/2025
0855/0955
**
DE
S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/12/2025
0855/0955
**
DE
S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
03/12/2025
0900/1000
**
EU
S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/12/2025
0900/1000
**
EU
S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
03/12/2025
0930/0930
**
GB
S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
03/12/2025
0930/0930
***
GB
S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
03/12/2025
1000/1100
**
EU
EZ PPI
03/12/2025
1000/1000
**
GB
Gilt Outright Auction Result
03/12/2025
1030/1130
EU
ECB Lane Keynote at Banca d'Italia Workshop on Exchange Rates