MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: JGB Yields Up Post Poor Auction
May-20 05:34By: Jonathan Cavenagh
Europe
The RBA cut rates as expected by 25bps, but also trimmed its inflation and growth forecasts on global uncertainty. This weighed on AUD and local yields. USD/JPY was softer finding sellers above 145.00.
JGB back end yields surged post a poor JGB 20yr auction. China LPRs were cut by 10bps as expected.
Later the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler and Hammack appear and the Atlanta Fed’s conference continues. The ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone attend the G7 meeting, while Buch, Cipollone and Donnery speak. In terms of data, US May Philly Fed non-manufacturing and Canadian April CPIs are released.
TYM5 has traded higher within a range of 110-06+ to 110-12 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-07+, up 0-03 from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield is dealing around 3.974%, unchanged from its close.
The US 10-year yield has drifted higher, dealing around 4.455%, up 0.01 from its close.
(Bloomberg) -- Switzerland’s central bank chief gave a vote of confidence to US government bonds even after the world’s biggest economy was stripped of its last top credit rating by Moody’s.
“US Treasuries are very liquid,” Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel said Monday in Lucerne. “There is currently no alternative to them and it’s not foreseeable that there will be an alternative.”
"*FREEDOM CAUCUS CHAIR HARRIS SAYS VOTES NOT THERE FOR TRUMP BILL", HARRIS PREDICTS DEAL ON TRUMP TAX BILL DELAYED UNTIL JUNE"(BBG)
The 10-year Yield failed once again to hold above 4.5%, likewise the 30-year Yield above the pivotal 5% level. A sustained break above this level could see another round of selling targeting the 4.75% area. Support seen back towards 4.35/40%, dips back towards here should see supply emerge once more.
Data/Events : Tuesday's schedule includes the Philly Fed nonmanufacturing survey along with another slew of Fed speakers, including Collins, Barkin, Musalem, Kugler, Hammack and Daly.
JGB futures are sharply weaker, -24 compared to settlement levels, but well above session cheaps seen in the aftermath of today’s very poor 20-year auction.
The low-price underperformed dealer forecasts, according to a Bloomberg poll. Moreover, the cover ratio decreased to 2.5007x from 2.9639x in the previous auction, and the auction tail lengthened dramatically from 0.34 to 1.14 – the longest since 1987. In post-auction dealing, the 20-year JGB hascheapened 13bps.
Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains.
(Bloomberg) -- “House Speaker Mike Johnson said “we are almost there” on passing a sweeping US tax bill. Republicans are pushing to implement Medicaid work requirements in 2027, two years earlier than planned, Majority Leader Steve Scalise told CNBC.”
(Bloomberg) - “Washington lawmakers are risking a "fiscal disaster" if a recession hits as they continue with their package of sweeping tax cuts, according to Guggenheim Securities Co-Chair Jim Millstein.”
Cash JGBs have bear-steepened across benchmarks, with yields 1-13bps higher. The benchmark 20-year yield is 13bps higher at 2.543%.
Swaps have also bear-steepened, with rates 1-11bps higher.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data.
ACGBs (YM +7.0 & XM +7.5) are sharply stronger on the day and richening 4-6bps after the RBA Policy Decision.
The RBA cut the cash rate, as expected, by 25bps to 3.85% and left a dovish first impression in terms of the statement, by trimming its inflation (trimmed mean) and growth forecasts slightly.
Last para of RBA Statement: “The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome."
Cash ACGBs are 7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
The bills strip has extended its strengthening after the RBA decision, led by late whites, with pricing +4 to +8.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 7bps softer across meetings after the decision. A 25bp rate cut today was given a 95% probability. A cumulative 81bps of easing is now priced by year-end (-75bps before the data).
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index.
The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday.
The RBA cut rates 25bp to 3.85%, the lowest in two years, as was widely expected. The impact of current global uncertainty on economic decisions contributed to downward revisions to staff forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and employment but the outlook is significantly unclear. These downward adjustments, especially those bringing inflation closer to the band mid-point, gave the Board room to cut rates for a second time this year and opens the possibility of further easing depending on data and global developments but the RBA “remains cautious”.
The decision to cut rates was made because Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell below the top of the 2-3% band, downward revisions to global growth and thus Australia’s resulted in lower employment gains and brought inflation closer to the band mid-point, of heightened uncertainty and a slower consumption recovery.
The board noted that inflation risks were now “balanced” after being “on both sides” in April.
Market OCR pricing used in forecasting was 20-30bp lower than in February and still drove a 0.1pp downward revision to underlying inflation bringing it to 2.6% across the horizon. Headline was adjusted to reflect not only softer growth but changes to the government’s electricity rebate but it now doesn’t exceed 3.0% helped by a materially lower oil price assumption.
GDP growth was revised down 0.3pp in Q4 2025 to 2.1% as consumption is now forecast to grow 1.9% down from 2.6%. Business investment and exports are also lower while public demand and dwelling investment are now forecast to be higher. End-2026 GDP was little changed at 2.2% with stronger private consumption offsetting weaker public demand.
The unemployment rate is forecast to peak 0.1pp higher at 4.3%, while employment growth was revised down 0.7pp to 2.1% in Q2 2025 (April +2.7% y/y) and -0.6pp to 1.4% y/y in Q4, but it reiterated that the labour market remains tight. Wages growth was revised 0.1pp lower across the horizon and productivity slightly higher.
NZGBs closed showing a modest bull-flattener, with benchmark yields 1-3bps lower.
Nevertheless, the NZ-US 10-year yield differential widened 3bps.
The local market was closed at the time of the RBA decision. As a result, the post-RBA rally in ACGBs—driven by the rate cut and dovish shift—may positively influence NZGBs when trading resumes tomorrow morning.
Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest gains.
(Bloomberg) -- Switzerland’s central bank chief gave a vote of confidence to US government bonds even after the world’s biggest economy was stripped of its last top credit rating by Moody’s.
“US Treasuries are very liquid,” Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel said Monday in Lucerne. “There is currently no alternative to them and it’s not foreseeable that there will be an alternative.”
Swap rates closed 2-5bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 25ps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 63bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data ahead of the Budget on Thursday.
On Friday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$150mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6423 - 0.6459 in the Asia- Pac session, it is trading around 0.6425. The RBA lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected to 3.85% and lowered inflation and growth forecasts.
The AUD has come off as the RBA lowers inflation and growth forecasts: “ The Board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced. Inflation is in the target band and upside risks appear to have diminished as international developments are expected to weigh on the economy. With inflation expected to remain around target, the board therefore judged that an easing in monetary policy at this meeting was appropriate.”
"AUSTRALIA NATIONAL PARTY LEADER LITTLEPROUD: ENDING COALITION WITH LIBERAL PARTY, NATIONAL PARTY WILL SIT ALONE ON A PRINCIPLE BASIS - [RTRS]"
The AUD/USD has found demand around 0.6400 again overnight, expect buyers to be around on dips while the support in the AUD holds, a close back below 0.6300/50 would start to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6350(AUD367m May 20), Upcoming Strikes : 0.6375(AUD483.6m May 23), 0.6550(AUD480.3m May 23)
AUD/JPY - Today's range 93.02 - 93.84, it is trading currently around 93.05. Decent demand seen towards the 93.00 area where it holds again overnight. A sustained close back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to turn the focus back towards the lows again. If stocks continue to press higher AUD/JPY could drift back towards the 96.00 area.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1224.40 - 1226.87 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1225. China Prime Rates Lowered As Expected: The 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rates were reduced in line with expectations. The move lower by 10bps for each sees the 1-year LPR to 3.00% and the 5-year LPR to 3.50%, the lowest they have been since inception. CATL’s huge listing on the Hong Kong exchange produced an early jump for the shares, which is lifting the Hang Seng Index as the trading debut will also encourage more IPOs to list in the city on attractive valuations.(BBG)
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1218 - 1.1251, Asia is currently trading 1.1245.The market is still expected to use dips as a buying opportunity with dips back towards 1.09/1.10 well supported.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3345 - 1.3376, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3370. Decent demand for GBP sub 1.3200 has seen it bounce back and it looks likely to test the upper bounds of its range above 1.3400. Like the EUR the market prefers to buy on dips.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.2128 - 7.2263, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1931. Asia is currently dealing around 7.2230. Sellers should be found on a bounce back towards 7.24/25 again.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5913 - 0.5932 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open around 0.5920. US Stocks have drifted lower today, paring back a little of their overnight gains.
US President Trump has had a two hour conversation with Russian President Putin about the war in the Ukraine. Trump said that he believes that Putin wants peace. While he said that peace talks would begin "immediately", it remains unclear what the next steps will be, especially as the unconditional 30-day ceasefire was not discussed between the two leaders.
The NZD/USD traded closely with US stocks, paring back some overnight gains before demand was seen again back towards 0.5900.
The NZD now seems to be comfortable in a 0.5800/0.6050 range and awaits a catalyst to provide the impetus to break-out.
The support back towards 0.5800 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. The first target is the highs just above 0.6000, a break above here is needed to regain momentum.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none, Upcoming Strikes : 0.5705(NZD805.1m May 23), 0.6150(NZD356.1m May 23)
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0880 - 1.0897, currently trading 1.0885. The Cross has found some supply just above 1.0900, support is seen back towards 1.0800. A sustained break above 1.0920 would turn the focus higher.
The Asia-Pac range has been 144.73 - 145.51, Asia is currently trading around 144.80. Early demand for USD’s going into the Japanese Fix was met by fresh selling reacting to comments from the Japanese Finance minister Kato, this saw a quick move to revisit the overnight lows where some demand again returned.
"*KATO: ARRANGING BESSENT MEETING TO DISCUSS TOPICS INCLUDING FX, TALKS W BESSENT ON FX WILL SEEK TO FOLLOW EXISTING STANCE" - BBG
Akazawa made comments this morning reiterating his commitment to seek a removal of “All US Tariffs”.
Very poor demand seen in the 20-year JGB auction today, tail the longest since 1987.
Nippon Steel pledged to invest more in US Steel — including building a new mill and preserving jobs — if the US approves their merger, people familiar said.(BBG)
USD/JPY continues to test its support and the price action is interesting considering the bounce in stocks.
The support around 144/145 looks important now and a break would once again bring the focus back to the pivotal 140.00 area. The price action though does not look great and the market is still more comfortable selling rallies.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.50($1.03b May 20), 145.00($789.7m May 20) , Upcoming Strikes : 145.00($2b May 23),144.00($1.37b May 23), 140.00(1.67b May 23)
One of the key IPO's in Asia this year is EV battery marker CATL. Making its trading debut this week in Hong Kong CATL's shares jumped 14% even after its initial pricing was at the top end of expectations.
This gave a boost to the Hang Seng which had fallen for three days straight prior to CATL's first day of trading, as it delivered a strong rally.
China's Hang Seng is up +1.29% today taking back the losses incurred over recent days. The CSI 300 was up +0.62%, the Shanghai Comp up +0.38% and the Shenzhen Composite is up +0.86%.
The KOSPI barely moved today as it lacked direction and rose just +0.03% after yesterday's fall of -0.89%.
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index is lower by -0.42% as the index falls for a fourth straight day despite stronger than expected trade data today.
Indonesia's Jakarta Composite has rallied 18 out of the last 20 trading days and is up again today by +0.36%.
Singapore's FTSE Straits Times is up +0.19% and the PSEi in the Philippines is lower by -1.5%.
India's NIFTY 50 continued to fall for a third straight day, down -0.20%.
Oil prices are close to flat in today’s APAC trading as the market continues to watch closely progress on trade, Iran and Ukraine. It hasn’t benefited from today’s better risk tone. WTI is around $62.16/bbl after a high of $62.33 followed by a low of $62.02. Brent is flat at around $65.54/bbl following a peak of $65.72 early in the session but off the trough of $65.39. The USD index is also little changed.
Trade deals are important for the energy demand outlook, while agreements on Iran and Ukraine could increase oil supply if sanctions are eased.
Following his discussion with Russian President Putin, US President Trump said that he believes that Putin wants peace. While he said that peace talks would begin “immediately”, it remains unclear what the next steps will be. Like with negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, progress is uncertain and success or failure will have some impact on global oil supplies.
With the IEA continuing to forecast excess supply in both 2025 and 2026 and the market looking for signs of uncertainty impacting the US economy, industry-based US crude inventory data out later today will be monitored for indications of softening demand.
Later the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler and Hammack appear and the Atlanta Fed’s conference continues. The ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone attend the G7 meeting, while Buch, Cipollone and Donnery speak. In terms of data, US May Philly Fed non-manufacturing and Canadian April CPIs are released.
Gold prices are down 0.5% to $3212.15/oz so far today as better risk appetite weighs. They rose 0.8% to $3229.61 on Monday supported by safe-haven buying following Moody’s US sovereign downgrade. US Treasury yields are little changed in APAC trading, while the USD index is range trading and flat.
Bullion reached $3232.72 earlier today but then trended down to $3204.71. It continues to trade between initial resistance at $3259.5, 20-day EMA, and initial support at $3121.0, 15 May low. It is almost 2% lower this month as more conciliatory trade developments have helped improve the global growth outlook, but with US tariffs only delayed and not scrapped uncertainty remains high.
Asian equities are rallying with the Hang Seng up 1.4% but the S&P e-mini down 0.3%. Oil prices are little changed with WTI around $62.19/bbl. Copper is 0.4% lower and iron ore approaching $100/t. Silver is 0.5% lower at $32.19.
Later the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler and Hammack appear and the Atlanta Fed’s conference continues. The ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone attend the G7 meeting, while Buch, Cipollone and Donnery speak. In terms of data, US May Philly Fed non-manufacturing and Canadian April CPIs are released.
Bank Indonesia (BI) announces its meeting decision on May 21 and FX stability will remain its focus but rupiah appreciation since the last meeting may allow it to cut rates for the first time since January.
21 of 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting a 25bp reduction to 5.5% with the rest expecting them to be on hold.
There are signs that the economy is slowing, inflation is within the target band and expected to stay there and there is significant global uncertainty. However, the question remains if the rupiah has appreciated enough for BI to feel confident to cut rates.
Malaysia released their trade data today with exports and imports much stronger than expected.April exports rose +16.4% beating market expectations of +7.5% and much higher than the prior month result of +6.8%.The export result was supported by strong demand for manufactured goods specifically electrical and electronic goods.Exports to the US were up +45% YoY whilst China was up +2.1% but both were down relative to the prior month.Exports to Japan had contracted in March but grew +6.8% in April and Thailand exports grew by +19.9%.Imports surged in signs the domestic consumer remains resilient.April imports jumped +20% from a contraction of -2.9% in March.The result saw a Malaysia April trade surplus of MYR5.1bn, significantly below estimates of MYR13.7bn.The numbers are likely impacted by pre-tariff activity which impacted trade numbers prior to the imposition of tariffs.The BNM does not meet again until July 09.(source MNI Market News)
Malaysia’s largest lender Malayan Banking Bhd. facilitated as much as 2.35 billion ringgit ($545 million) in client investments into the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone as part of efforts to promote the region. Maybank facilitated the submission of Letter of Intents by Singapore-headquartered clients Alpine Renewables and Edible Oils Pte Ltd., Centurion Corp. and Thomson Medical Group Ltd. into the SEZ, according to a statement Monday. (source BBG)
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index is lower by -0.42% as the index falls for a fourth straight day despite stronger than expected trade data today.
The ringgit was modestly better gaining +0.08% today to be at 4.28.
Indonesia’s budget balance swung back to a surplus at the end of April, a reassurance to investors rattled about the government’s state of finances after three straight months in the red. The budget surplus stood at 4.3 trillion rupiah last month, Finance Minister Indrawati said in parliament’s plenary session on Tuesday. That overturns the shortfall of 104.2 trillion rupiah in the January-March period, equivalent to 0.43% of GDP. (source BBG)
Indonesia plans to set the budget deficit at 2.48%-2.53% of GDP next year, Finance Minister Indrawati says in a parliament plenary session Tuesday. Govt projects 2026 GDP growth at 5.2%-5.8% down from the original +5.8%-6.3%. “Amid various global dynamics, economic growth in 2026 will face various risks and uncertainties,” Indrawati says. Govt plans 2026 state spending at 14.19%-14.75% of GDP. Fiscal policy will remain expansive, targeted and measured in anticipation of global pressures and dynamics, (source BBG)
Indonesia's Jakarta Composite has rallied 18 out of the last 20 trading days and is up again today by +0.36%.
The rupiah is the best regional performer today gaining +.20% at 16,401
Modestly lower yields across all major maturities today with the 10YR at 6.86% (-0.5bps)
India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the matter. The interim deal will likely cover areas including market access for industrial goods, some farm products and addressing some non-tariff barriers, such as quality control requirements, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. (source BBG)
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) accepted a lower-than-notified amount at its open market operations to purchase bonds on Monday even as market participants sought to sell securities worth twice the announced offer on the table. This probably indicates the central bank is comfortable with the current liquidity.(source Economic Times)
India's NIFTY 50 continued to fall for a third straight day, down -0.20%.
The rupee did very little today down marginally at 85.43
A strong start for bonds despite a lower bid from the Central Bank with the IGB 10YR lower by -2bp at 6.27%
In South East Asia FX, trends have mixed in Tuesday trade to date, albeit with modest aggregate moves. USD/THB is a little higher, but away from best levels . IDR is modestly outperforming, as Indonesian assets do better. USD/MYR is down a touch, while PHP is close close to unchanged.
USD/THB sits near 33.05/10 in latest dealings, against earlier highs of 33.26. Focus is likely to be on whether we can test sub 33.00 without fresh upside in gold prices. Earlier headlines crossed of weaker tourism arrivals for May, which are now down in y/y terms as well. Yesterday we saw a downward revision to the 2025 arrivals forecast, so this may in the price to some degree already.
USD/MYR has drifted back under 4.2900, but remains well above earlier May highs sub 4.2000. We had better than expected trade figures out a little while ago, amid bumper exports to the US, so this may reflect pre-tariff trade flow shifts.
USD/IDR has tested sub 16400, although hasn't been able to sustain the break of this level. We are close to the 100-day EMA and near reent lows in the pair. Indonesian assets have performed better of late, with local equities up more than 20% from recent lows. There may also be better optimism around the fiscal outlook., with a modest surplus in April, while the country proposed a 2026 budget deficit in the 2.48-2.53% of GDP range.
USD/PHP is little changed, last near 55.60/65.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
20/05/2025
0430/1430
***
AU
RBA Rate Decision
20/05/2025
0600/0800
**
DE
PPI
20/05/2025
0800/1000
**
EU
EZ Current Account
20/05/2025
0800/0900
GB
BOE's Pill At Barclays Briefing
20/05/2025
0900/1100
**
EU
Construction Production
20/05/2025
1000/1200
EU
ECB's Cipollone pre-rec video at Sustainability Festival