OIL: Crude Range Trading, Not Finding Support From Better Risk Appetite

Oil prices are close to flat in today’s APAC trading as the market continues to watch closely progress on trade, Iran and Ukraine. It hasn’t benefited from today’s better risk tone. WTI is around $62.16/bbl after a high of $62.33 followed by a low of $62.02. Brent is flat at around $65.54/bbl following a peak of $65.72 early in the session but off the trough of $65.39. The USD index is also little changed. 

• Trade deals are important for the energy demand outlook, while agreements on Iran and Ukraine could increase oil supply if sanctions are eased.
• Following his discussion with Russian President Putin, US President Trump said that he believes that Putin wants peace. While he said that peace talks would begin “immediately”, it remains unclear what the next steps will be. Like with negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, progress is uncertain and success or failure will have some impact on global oil supplies.
• With the IEA continuing to forecast excess supply in both 2025 and 2026 and the market looking for signs of uncertainty impacting the US economy, industry-based US crude inventory data out later today will be monitored for indications of softening demand.
• Later the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler and Hammack appear and the Atlanta Fed’s conference continues. The ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone attend the G7 meeting, while Buch, Cipollone and Donnery speak. In terms of data, US May Philly Fed non-manufacturing and Canadian April CPIs are released.