MNI BRIEF: US Firms Expect To Shed Jobs In 2025 - ISM

U.S. purchasing and supply executives expect to shed jobs this year as tariffs, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty hold down growth, according to the Institute for Supply Management semiannual economic forecast released Thursday. 

Manufacturing employment is expected to dip 0.1% and services employment fall by 1.6% by December, compared to a year ago, the survey said. U.S. economic growth will be flat in 2025 and inflation sticky through the rest of the year. Prices of raw materials in manufacturing are expected to increase by 2.8 pp for the rest of the year, whereas in services prices of raw materials are expected to increase 3.0 pp. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Unreliable Trump Stings US Factories, ISM Says)

Capital expenditures in manufacturing is expected to decrease 1.3% and for services decrease 3.3%, ISM said. Manufacturing revenue for 2025 is expected to increase, on average, by 0.1%. This is 4.1 pp lower than the December 2024 forecast and 0.7 pp lower than the 0.8 pp year-over-year increase reported for 2024. Service revenues are expected to remain flat in 2025, which is 3.9 pp lower than the forecast in December 2024. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Service Growth Hinges On Trade War Path - ISM)