MNI BRIEF: UK Inflation Rate Holds At 3.8% In September

UK inflation rose at an unchanged annual rate in September, with CPI higher by 3.8% y/y, the same rate seen in July and August, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Core CPI (CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.5%y/y, down from 3.6%, while the the CPI goods annual rate rose slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%. CPI services annual rate was unchanged in September, at 4.7%.

The data offers little new information for the Bank of England's MPC, with prices still at an elevated level, if sitting just shy of worst fears. The Committee will now be hoping prices have near-peaked, with Q4 2025 the top of the current cycle. (see MNI INTERVIEW: BOE Should Hold In November - Sentance )

ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said “a variety of price movements meant (consumer) inflation was unchanged overall in September," although he noted "the annual rise in the cost of goods leaving factories continued to increase, driven by higher food prices.” (see MNI INTERVIEW: UK Consumer Savings Still Drag on Economy- ONS )