BOC: MNI BoC Review-June 2025: Proceeding Carefully

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4076 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3923 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3821 @ 15:09 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south. A fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3923, the 20-day EMA. 

• Treasuries look to finish lower Monday, off late session lows as rates bounced in reaction to reversal in stocks that had been climbing steadily off early session lows.
• Generally quiet session on lighter volumes (TYM5 <1M) with multiple Spring holidays around the globe: Japan, China, HK, South Korea, as well as the UK, EU is open however.
• Focus on Wednesday's FOMC rate annc at 1400ET. The FOMC is expected to extend its series of rate holds to a third meeting in May, keeping the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% while maintaining its forward guidance in the Statement.
• Treasury futures gap lower after higher than expected ISM Services data - climbing to the highest levels since January 2023 (51.6 from 50.8 vs 50.2 est; Employment Index 49.0 Vs Mar 46.2; New Orders Index 52.3 Vs Mar 50.4; Prices Index 65.1 Vs Mar 60.9.
• Jun'25 10Y currently -3 at 111-00 vs. 110-28.5 low (10Y yld at 4.3394%), through technical support at 110-30.5 (50-day EMA). A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low.
• Cross asset: Still weaker BBG US$ index bounces to 1221.48 (-3.03); stocks weaker after paring losses all day: S&P eminis -20.5 at 5688.5.

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6494 High May 05
• PRICE: 0.6480 @ 15:08 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.6356/6321 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD traded higher Monday as the pair starts the week on a bullish note. The breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, marks the end of the recent pause in the bull cycle and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6321, the 50-day EMA.