BOC: MNI BoC Review-Dec 2025: Data Seen Solid, But Not Yet Material
Dec-10 16:37
We've just published our review of the December BOC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- As largely expected the BOC produced a fairly neutral appraisal of the economy and rate outlook alongside the unanimously-expected overnight rate hold at 2.25%.
- The market reaction to the decision release was slightly dovish (about 2-3bp of implied hiking taken out of the path over the next 7 meetings), reflecting the Statement's downplaying of recent upside surprises in macro data developments.
- The post-meeting press conference saw little further shift in rate expectations, with Gov Macklem acknowledging the resilience in the Canadian economy evident in the latest data, but highlighting that it “hasn’t fundamentally changed our view”.
- Coming out of the meeting, markets price in 25bp of cumulative hikes through the October 2026 meeting, vs 27bp prior, with the path through H1 2026 almost completely flat.
- Attention turns to two key data releases to round out the year: November CPI (December 15) and October GDP (December 23), with the December labour report (January 9) and CPI (January 19) the key releases ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next decision on January 28 (1bp of cuts priced).
- See PDF report for:
- MNI View
- MNI Instant Answers
- Press Conference Transcript
- BOC Meeting Links
- Policy Statement Changes
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FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.780%(ALLOT 86.83%)
Nov-10 16:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.780%(ALLOT 86.83%)
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US: Senate Convenes To Work On Funding Package, Focus On Time Agreement
Nov-10 16:18
The US Senate has convened to begin consideration of the three-bill minibus appropriations package and Continuing Resolution to fund the government through January 30. The primary focus for markets is whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) can strike a deal to fast-track the process of reopening the government.
- As eight Democrats voted to invoke cloture on the package yesterday, the remaining procedural votes can be passed via a simple majority. However, absent a time agreement to wrap up the package today, any single Senator can delay the process for a few days.
- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is one potential holdup. He "has been warning GOP leaders that he will obstruct passage of any bill that takes aim at the hemp industry in his state," per Politico.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) indicated at a press conference a short time ago that he will bring the lower chamber back into session 36 hours after Senate passage, which suggests the government could be reopened by Wednesday.
- Punchbowl notes that Johnson wants to pass the Senate package under a rule, meaning the bill will require a vote in the Rules Committee and a rule vote on the floor. The GOP majority will only be two votes if Johnson swears in Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election in September, when the House gavels in.
- As always, Johnson will need the support of conservatives. However, despite standard objections to CRs and the inclusion of a Senate minibus appropriations package, House conservatives are unlikely to torpedo a Trump-backed plan to reopen the government.
