MNI ASIA OPEN: Dec Hike Chances Remain Subdued

EXECUTIVCE SUMMARY

• MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Hasn't Made Decision On Dec But Cautious
• MNI FED: Richmond's Barkin Doesn't Sound Opposed To A December Cut
• MNI GLOBAL: Reports Suggest China Diplomat Dissatisfied with Japan Meeting Outcome
• MNI US DATA: Mixed Consolidation Of Improvement In NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment
• MNI US DATA: Durable / Factory Orders Show Steady Momentum Pickup Through Q3
• MNI US DATA: Weekly ADP Sees Another Decline Heading Into November

US

MNI FED: Richmond's Barkin Doesn't Sound Opposed To A December Cut

Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-2025/2026 FOMC voter) concludes a speech Friday ("Operating with Limited Data") by saying that he's not guiding as to his policy preferences for the December FOMC meeting: "You may notice nothing I just said gives any guidance for our next meeting. That’s intentional, as I think we have a lot to learn between now and then."

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Hasn't Made Decision On Dec But Cautious

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday said he has not made up his mind about interest rates when it comes to the central bank's meeting in December, but noted he will be cautious because inflation is still running at 3%. "I guess what I would say is I haven't made any decision about December, but I think we need to be quite cautious, given that inflation has remained elevated over this last year," he said in Q&A at an event at American University in Washington.

NEWS

MNI US: Court Rejects Texas Redistricting, Narrowing GOP Path To Gain Seats

"*TEXAS REDISTRICTING SHOT DOWN, NARROWING GOP PATH TO GAIN SEATS" - bbg From the Bloomberg write-up: "Texas diluted the strength of minority voters in redrawing Congressional districts, a federal judge panel ruled Tuesday, delivering a loss to President Donald Trump and closing a path to Republicans adding five more House seats next year."

MNI GLOBAL: Reports Suggest China Diplomat Dissatisfied with Japan Meeting Outcome

"*CHINA DIPLOMAT DISSATISFIED WITH RESULT OF JAPAN MEETING: PAPER" (BBG) "Chinese diplomat Liu Jinsong says he is “of course dissatisfied” with result of his meeting with Masaaki Kanai, the Japanese foreign ministry official in charge of Asia and Oceania affairs, Chinese news outlet The Paper reports."

Bloomberg: "House Votes Overwhelmingly to Compel Release of Jeffrey Epstein Files", in a 427 to 1 vote, GOP Rep. Clay Higgins the sole dissenter.

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Tsy Inside Range Waiting For More Data, Nvidia Earnings Wednesday

• Treasuries look to finish mostly higher - but off early session highs amid general risk-off tone ahead of Nvidia's eagerly awaited Q3 earnings after tomorrow's close.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +5 at 112-25.5 (112-17 low / 113-02 high) - below resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high.
• Private sector payrolls data suggested recent labor market weakness as we await Thursday's employment report for September. The ADP NER Pulse reports -2.5k private sector jobs lost over the four weeks to Nov 1 on a week-on-week basis. It follows a downward revised -14.25k (-11.25k) in the previous week to Oct 25 and 4.75k (6.25k previously) in the week to Oct 18.
• The NAHB housing market index was roughly as expected in its November release at 38 (cons 37), slightly extending what had been a 5pt increase to 37 in October.
• Factory orders showed an in-line headline growth reading of 1.4% M/M in August, with prior unrevised at -1.3%. Ex-transportation factory orders were slightly weaker than anticipated, at 0.1% (0.3% consensus, 0.5% prior rev down 0.1pp).
• Given the uncertainty surrounding further US data this week, the greenback subsequently recovered, as market participants assess whether data surprises might be viewed through a policy or growth lens. The Japanese yen remained immune to the recent weakness for major equity benchmarks and the more forceful verbal warnings from Japanese officials on one-sided adjustments for the currency.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Weekly ADP Sees Another Decline Heading Into November

The ADP NER Pulse reports -2.5k private sector jobs lost over the four weeks to Nov 1 on a week-on-week basis. It follows a downward revised -14.25k (-11.25k) in the previous week to Oct 25 and 4.75k (6.25k previously) in the week to Oct 18. Note also that ADP first published this figure at another new link today: 
https://www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-is-sluggish-but-new-hires-are-on-the-upswing-how/

MNI US DATA: Mixed Consolidation Of Improvement In NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment

NAHB homebuilder sentiment firmed marginally in November in a mixed report, building on a larger improvement back in October. The increase over the past two months is likely helped by lower mortgage rates (aided by a reasonable decline in mortgage swap spreads) but the tailwind appears marginal with sentiment still depressed historically. 

• The NAHB housing market index was roughly as expected in its November release at 38 (cons 37), slightly extending what had been a 5pt increase to 37 in October.
• It leaves homebuilder sentiment at its highest since April, having improved from the low 30s at what had been close to lows since 2012. Still, it’s comfortably below the 66k averaged in 2019 or a long-term post-2000 average of ~50.
• Latest drivers on the month were mixed, with present sales +2pts to 41 and prospective traffic +1pt to 26, but the outlook for sales in six months’ time -3pts to 51 (albeit after an unusually strong 9pt increase in October).
• Broad sentiment by region was also mixed, with the south (easily the largest for new home sales) and west (second largest) rising 2pts, the midwest falling 2pts and northeast sliding 10pts to also fully reverse an 11pt jump. 

MNI US DATA: Durable / Factory Orders Show Steady Momentum Pickup Through Q3

The 6-week delayed August Factory Orders data largely confirmed our tracking of a slight pickup in manufacturing and business investment momentum through the middle of Q3, as indicated in the prelim durables report out way back on September 26. Factory orders showed an in-line headline growth reading of 1.4% M/M in August, with prior unrevised at -1.3%. Ex-transportation factory orders were slightly weaker than anticipated, at 0.1% (0.3% consensus, 0.5% prior rev down 0.1pp).

MNI US DATA: DOL To Resume Release Jobless Claims Data On Thursday

Bloomberg reports a DOL spokesman saying it will publish weekly jobless claims on Thursday, citing the overnight release at ~0310ET as a technical issue. Recall, earlier today we noted that the DOL had strangely reported only a single week of initial claims data (for Oct 18) and two weeks for continuing claims around then, with the 232k for initial claims somewhat above the 227k we had tracked at the time from state-level data.

MNI US DATA: Redbook Retail Sales Maintain Robust Pace, Q4 Still Looking Solid

In yet another indicator of solid retail sales continuing into Q4, the latest Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index posted a 6.1% Y/Y rise in the week ending Nov 15, a pickup from 5.9% the prior week. This brought month-to-date sales gains to 6.0% Y/Y (note, retailers target a 6.7% gain). 

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 498.56 points (-1.07%) at 46091.68
S&P E-Mini Future down 52.25 points (-0.78%) at 6637.25
Nasdaq down 275.2 points (-1.2%) at 22432.85
US 10-Yr yield is down 2.1 bps at 4.1173%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are up 5/32 at 112-25.5
EURUSD down 0.0012 (-0.1%) at 1.158
USDJPY up 0.27 (0.17%) at 155.54
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.91 (1.52%) at $60.82
Gold is up $25.45 (0.63%) at $4070.49

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 106.23 points (-1.88%) at 5534.71
FTSE 100 down 123.13 points (-1.27%) at 9552.3
German DAX down 409.99 points (-1.74%) at 23180.53
French CAC 40 down 151.09 points (-1.86%) at 7967.93

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update: 3M10Y -1.082, 25.775 (L: 21.216 / H: 27.971) 
2Y10Y +1.424, 54.058 (L: 52.357 / H: 54.542) 
Y30Y +3.851, 116.209 (L: 112.845 / H: 116.87)
5Y30Y +4.136, 104.794 (L: 100.929 / H: 105.576)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures up 1.875/32 at 104-4.875 (L: 104-02.625 / H: 104-06.875)
Dec 5-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 109-10 (L: 109-03.75 / H: 109-14.75) 
Dec 10-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 112-25 (L: 112-17 / H: 113-02)
Dec 30-Yr futures steady at at 116-23 (L: 116-15 / H: 117-08)
Dec Ultra futures down 2/32 at 120-0 (L: 119-21 / H: 120-19)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 114-02   High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 113-29   High Oct 22
• RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
• RES 1: 113-04+ High Nov 14
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-24+ @ 1420 ET Nov 18
• SUP 1: 112-10   100-dma
• SUP 2: 112-06   Low Sep 25 / Trendline drawn from the May 22 low
• SUP 3: 111-31   Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 111-23   50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg 

Treasuries continue to trade below resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06. 

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 +0.018 at 96.193
Mar 26 +0.040 at 96.420
Jun 26 +0.045 at 96.670
Sep 26 +0.045 at 96.840
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) +0.040 to +0.040
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) +0.030 to +0.035
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) +0.020 to +0.030
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) +0.010 to +0.020

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.00% (+0.05), volume: $3.278T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.96% (+0.04), volume: $1.276T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.96% (+0.04), volume: $1.246T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $75B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $150B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

Excess liquidity nearly drained: RRP usage down to $0.905B with 8 counterparties this afternoon from Monday's $3.172B. Compares to last Friday's (Nov 14) $1.559B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $6B Pfizer 7Pt Launched

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/18 $6B #Pfizer $1B 2Y +30, $500M 2Y SOFR+50, $1B 5Y +52, $1.25B 7Y +65, $1.25B 10Y +75, $500M 30Y +87.5, $500M 40Y +100.
• 11/18 $2.5B Genmab 7NC3 6.375%a, 8NC3 7.375%a
• 11/18 $1.2B #Protective Life $600M +5Y +105, $600M 10Y +12
• 11/18 $1B #Cenovius $500M +5Y +100, $500M +10Y +130
• 11/18 $900M #Spire $450M 30.5NC5.25 6.25%, $450M 30.5NC10.25 6.45%
• 11/18 $800M #Steel Dynamics $650M 3Y +63, $150M 10Y +93
• 11/18 $750M #Vale Overseas +30NC5 6.125%
• 11/18 $600M Eurofima Jan 2029 SOFR+36
• 11/18 $600M #Buenos Aires 7Y 8.125%
• 11/18 $500M #RGA Global Funding 5Y +93
• 11/18 $500M #Pricoa Global Funding 5Y +68
• 11/18 $500M #Global Atlantic Fin 30NC5 7.25%
• 11/18 $Benchmark Sharjah 10.5Y Sukuk +145a
• 11/18 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs Private Equity investor calls

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform Pre-UK CPI

Gilts underperformed across the European space Tuesday.

• Bunds and Gilts gained early in a safe haven bid with equities continuing to struggle, though headed off highs as stocks and energy prices stabilised.
• Core FI would recover from session lows in the early European afternoon on the back of a bounce in US Treasuries, after private sector payrolls data suggested recent labor market weakness as we await Thursday's employment report for September.
• Nothing in commentary by BOE's Pill suggested that he would vote for a December cut.
• The UK curve bear steepened on the day, while the German curve twist steepened.
• Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened slightly, though closed off the widest levels after equities stagaed a modest recovery into the cash close.
• UK inflation data will be the focus Wednesday - MNI's preview is here. With sellside expectations skewed towards a softer print, and markets pricing
   in 18bp for the December meeting, we think that an upside surprise to the BOE's forecast would therefore likely cause a larger market move than a
   downside surprise.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.3bps at 2.019%, 5-Yr is down 1.5bps at 2.293%, 10-Yr is down 0.6bps at 2.706%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 3.319%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 3.8%, 5-Yr is up 0.9bps at 3.973%, 10-Yr is up 1.9bps at 4.554%, and 30-Yr is up 3.6bps at 5.386%.
• Italian BTP spread up 1.5bps at 75.1bps  / French OAT up 1.1bps at 75.5bps 

MNI FOREX: USD Index Awaiting Tier-One Data, CAD Notably Outperforms

• Initially, the US dollar was under pressure following the release of a weaker-than-expected US ADP jobs release. However, given the uncertainty surrounding further US data this week, the greenback subsequently recovered, as market participants assess whether data surprises might be viewed through a policy or growth lens.
• The Japanese yen remained immune to the recent weakness for major equity benchmarks and the more forceful verbal warnings from Japanese officials on one-sided adjustments for the currency.
• Additionally, the ongoing tensions between Japan/China, disappointing Q3 GDP data and fiscal related uncertainty continues to provide a pessimistic domestic backdrop, helping USDJPY reach fresh cycle highs above 155.50.
• In similar vein, the Swiss Franc underperforms today, assisting EURCHF further away from the recent false break below medium-term support at 0.9200.
• The Canadian dollar is notably outperforming today, allowing USDCAD to gather downside momentum below the 1.40 mark and breach last week’s lows. Spot has tested the 50-day EMA, intersecting around 1.3970, of which the pair has not closed below since September.
• Price action bolsters the short-term bearish outlook, as the pair continues to trade inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The respect of the channel top on Nov 11, and the subsequent move south highlights scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3893.
• Australian wage price index data will cross Wednesday, before UK CPI for October. Later in the session, the FOMC minutes are due.

WEDNESDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
19/11/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (1dp)
19/11/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Producer Prices
19/11/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (2dp)
19/11/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
19/11/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/11/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/11/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/11/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/11/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
19/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
19/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
19/11/2025	1500/1000		US	Fed Governor Stephen Miran
19/11/2025	1530/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
19/11/2025	1530/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
19/11/2025	1730/1230		CA	BOC Deputy Vincent speaks in Quebec City (Time TBC)
19/11/2025	1745/1245		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
19/11/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
19/11/2025	1900/1400		US	New York Fed's John Williams
19/11/2025	1900/1400	***	US	FOMC Minutes