EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US
MNI: Fed Should Tread Cautiously On Productivity -Goolsbee
Policymakers don't yet know whether the recent productivity surge will last and monetary policy should react cautiously, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday. If AI becomes the next general-purpose technology generating years of higher productivity growth, it will allow the economy to grow and wages to rise more without triggering inflation, he said.
MNI: US Tariffs Could Boost Inflation By 0.81%-1.63% -ATL Fed
New tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico would noticeably boost consumer prices in an "immediate and persistent" manner, a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on Friday finds. The Trump administration is threatening 25% levies on goods produced in Mexico and Canada and a doubling of the 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting next week. Such policies "could raise consumer prices on everyday retail purchases, such as food and beverage items and general merchandise, covering about a quarter of the total consumption basket, by 0.81% to 1.63%," wrote Salome Baslandze and three co-authors.
NEWS
MNI US: Democrat Appropriators Say GOP "Walking Away" From Govt Funding Talks
The top Democrat appropriators, Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), have issued a statement claiming Republicans have walked away from government funding discussions, raising the risk of a government shutdown on March 15. Statement: “It’s incredibly disappointing that Republican leadership is walking away from bipartisan negotiations to fund the government—and raising the risk of a shutdown in so doing.
MNI GLOBAL: President Trump Says Zelenskyy Disrespected US
Latest from Trump (via truth social): “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
MNI SECURITY: Future Of Gaza Ceasefire Unclear Ahead Of End Of Phase 1
Talks are underway in Cairo on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, with the first phase set to end on Saturday. Phase 2 of the ceasefire agreement is intended to include a return of all remaining hostages in Gaza and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the territory. France24 summarizes a prevailing view amongst analysts: “It will be difficult to reconcile a deal with the war objectives of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who has called for dismantling Hamas’s governing and military capabilities.”
MNI US-RUSSIA: Talks In Istanbul 'Substantive And Businesslike' - Russian MFA
Reuters reporting that diplomatic talks between US and Russian officials in Istanbul yesterday were “substantive and businesslike” according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement, with Russia suggesting the US, “consider restoring direct air links”. The Russian MFA noted that the US and Russian officials discussed issues related to diplomatic property and “agreed to continue the dialogue through this channel.”
MNI US TSYS: Rates Well Bid on Data, No US/UK Minerals/Peace Accord
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Core PCE Recent Trends Stabilize Above Target After Upward Revisions
MNI US DATA: Core PCE Unrounded Details - A Decent Beat
A decent 'beat' when factoring in a sizeable upward revision to Dec (we knew there were Q4 upward revisions) rather than earlier in the quarter on top of the January print at the high end of analyst expectations.
MNI US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Increases to 45.5 in February
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI increased 6.0 points to 45.5 in February. This is the second consecutive monthly gain, taking the reading to the highest level since June 2024, though it remains in contractionary territory for the fifteenth consecutive month.
MNI US DATA: Q1 GDP Tracking Slashed On Tariff Front-Running And Weak PCE
MNI CANADA DATA: Canada Q4 GDP Annualized +2.6% Beats BOC's +1.8% Estimate
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 330.39 points (0.76%) at 43575.15
S&P E-Mini Future up 42.75 points (0.73%) at 5920.75
Nasdaq up 127.3 points (0.7%) at 18676.28
US 10-Yr yield is down 4.4 bps at 4.2158%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are up 16.5/32 at 111-5
EURUSD down 0.0033 (-0.32%) at 1.0366
USDJPY up 0.69 (0.46%) at 150.5
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.43 (-0.61%) at $69.92
Gold is down $28.14 (-0.98%) at $2849.36
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 9.02 points (-0.16%) at 5463.54
FTSE 100 up 53.53 points (0.61%) at 8809.74
German DAX up 0.54 points (0%) at 22551.43
French CAC 40 up 9.11 points (0.11%) at 8111.63
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y -4.257, -8.616 (L: -9.994 / H: -2.707)
2Y10Y +2.015, 22.488 (L: 18.774 / H: 23.614)
2Y30Y +3.681, 51.26 (L: 46.107 / H: 52.909)
5Y30Y +3.189, 48.619 (L: 45.014 / H: 50.363)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures up 5.625/32 at 103-15.875 (L: 103-10.5 / H: 103-16.25)
Jun 5-Yr futures up 12/32 at 107-31.25 (L: 107-20.75 / H: 108-00.75)
Jun 10-Yr futures up 17/32 at 111-5.5 (L: 110-23 / H: 111-07.5)
Jun 30-Yr futures up 24/32 at 118-8 (L: 117-17 / H: 118-10)
Jun Ultra futures up 29/32 at 124-10 (L: 123-11 / H: 124-15)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North
A bullish cycle in Treasury futures remains in play and Friday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 110-20, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens the recovery and signals scope for a climb towards the 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high, and a key resistance. Initial firm support to monitor is 109-14+, the 50-day EMA.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Mar 25 +0.018 at 95.715
Jun 25 +0.065 at 95.955
Sep 25 +0.090 at 96.175
Dec 25 +0.105 at 96.315
Red Pack (Mar 26-Dec 26) +0.090 to +0.105
Green Pack (Mar 27-Dec 27) +0.075 to +0.090
Blue Pack (Mar 28-Dec 28) +0.075 to +0.080
Gold Pack (Mar 29-Dec 29) +0.075 to +0.085
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR Benchmark Settlements:
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage surged over $200B this afternoon to $234.442B from $182.044B on Thursday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties at 50 from 41 prior.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance, February Total Over $194B
MNI EGBS: CASH CLOSE: Paring of Risk Off Open Gains, EZ HICP Next Focus Point
EGBs have moved off recent highs seen after a short-lived latest rally in spillover from negative US 1 GDP tracking, and indeed German 10s have recently touched session lows amidst narrow ranges.
MNI FOREX: Late Trump/Zelenskyy Headlines Sour Risk Sentiment / Boost Greenback
MONDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
03/03/2025 | 0700/0200 | * | ![]() | Turkey CPI |
03/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ![]() | Deficit to GDP 2024/ GDP Y/Y | |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | BOE Lending to Individuals |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | BOE M4 |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
03/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | HICP (p) |
03/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
03/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | ISM Manufacturing Index |
03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | ![]() | Construction Spending |
03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
03/03/2025 | 1735/1235 | ![]() | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
04/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | ![]() | Labor Force Survey |
04/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | ![]() | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ![]() | RBA Meeting Minutes | |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ![]() | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | ![]() | Retail Trade |