US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Increases to 45.5 in February

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI increased 6.0 points to 45.5 in February. This is the second consecutive monthly gain, taking the reading to the highest level since June 2024, though it remains in contractionary territory for the fifteenth consecutive month.

• The rise was driven by increases in four out of five subcomponents: Production, New Orders, Supplier Deliveries and Order Backlogs, whilst Employment fell.
• Production expanded 7.6 points to 46.7. This is the second successive monthly increase taking the index to its highest level seen since June 2024.
• New Orders broadened 5.0 points. This takes the subcomponent to its highest level since November 2023, and firmly above the 2024 average.
• Supplier Deliveries extended 9.5 points, partially reversing January’s dip. However, it is hard to know whether this should be seen as a positive as slower deliveries don’t necessarily reflect stronger demand.
• Order Backlogs grew 5.2 points, to the highest level since September 2024.
• Employment in contrast fell 1.5 points to 36.3, printing another lowest level since June 2020. Almost 40% of respondents reported lower levels of employment for the first time since mid-2009.
• Prices Paid leapt 16.9 points to 77.1. This is the largest monthly increase since July 1957, bringing the index to its highest level since August 2022. No respondents reported lower prices, whilst over half reported higher prices.
• Inventories decreased 9.9 points.