EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US
MNI BRIEF: Bank Regulators To Propose SLR Reform - Bowman
U.S. bank regulators will soon propose reforms to the supplementary leverage ratio to ensure it acts as a backstop to risk-based capital requirements rather than a binding constraint that creates market distortions, Michelle Bowman, the Fed's new head of regulation, said Friday. "The original calibration of the eSLR was based on forecasts of the level of reserves and other so-called 'safe assets' in the system that are now far out of line with current levels," she said, referring to the enhanced SLR applicable to the largest banks.
NEWS
MNI US-RUSSIA: White House Wants Graham To Water Down Russia Sanction Bill - WSJ
The Trump administration is trying to get Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to significantly weaken his Russia-sanctions bill while the White House seeks to patch up its relationship with Moscow instead of punishing it for the continued invasion of Ukraine, according to the Wall Street Journal.
MNI US: Conservative Rep Massie Warns Senate Against Tinkering w/Big Beautiful Bill
Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY), a hardline conservative who voted down the 'Big Beautiful' GOP tax bill in the House, has warned the package will probably fail in the House if the Senate “starts tinkering with it”. Massie told CNN: “And if they start tinkering with it in the Senate, it probably fails in the House. Because people over here are now looking for more reasons to be against it. And if they give them even punctuation changes, that could be a reason to be against it”.
MNI TARIFFS: US And Chinese Trade Teams To Meet Within Seven Days - Navarro
White House Senior Trade Counselor, Peter Navarro, has told reporters at the White House he expects a meeting between US and Chinese trade teams to take place “within seven days", following the call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday. When asked about Trump’s claim that progress had been made with Xi on rare earth minerals, Navarro said: “Let’s see what happens with the negotiations but [Trump] was very clear that the rare earth issue will be key to that negotiation and the two presidents have a very clear understanding of the outcomes.
MNI RUSSIA: Kremlin-Russia 'Grateful For US Mediation Efforts' With Ukraine
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov, speaking to reporters, is asked whether the major drone and missile strikes on Kyiv, Lutsk and the Ternopil region overnight that killed at least three civilians, were in retaliation to the Ukrainian attacks over the weekend, replies, "all military actions are a response to the actions of a terrorist regime in Kyiv." While Kyiv has overtly claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on Russia's air fleet, and the bombing of the Kerch bridge, the Russian gov't accuses Kyiv of bringing down two bridges in incidents that killed seven and injured dozens. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for these incidents.
MNI IRAN: Foreign Min Warns E3 Against Non-Compliance Resolution At IAEA
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned the E3 nations (France, Germany, UK) against launching a non-compliance procedure against Iran at the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors' meeting on 9 June. In a post on X, Araghchi implies that the last non-compliance procedure, launched 20 years ago, was a spur to Iran's move towards a nuclear weapon, saying "When the E3 engaged in the same foul conduct back in 2005, the outcome in many ways was the true birth of uranium enrichment in Iran."
MNI GERMANY: Merz Says Trump Admin 'Open To Discussions' On Tariffs, Security & NATO
Reuters reports comments from Chancellor Freidrich Merz following his talks on 5 June with US President Donald Trump. Merz says that the Trump administration "is open to discussions" and to hearing other opinions. The chancellor confirms he and Trump discussed the war in Ukraine, tariff policies, and the future of NATO. Merz: "Trump was clear about not taking the US out of NATO, I have no doubts the US will stick with NATO." On foreign policy, Merz says that "In Washington, there does not seem to be a clear understanding of the extent of Russian armament.".
MNI NETHERLANDS: Legislative Election To Be Set For 29 October
Interior Minister Judith Uitermark has confirmed that snap legislative elections will be set for 29 October, in line with recommendations from the electoral council. This follows the collapse of the governing coalition earlier this week, sparked by the withdrawal of Geert Wilders' right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV). Wilders claims that he withdrew his party due to the other coalition members' refusal to accept his 10-point plan for asylum reform, claims denied by the other parties.
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Year End Rate Cuts Cool After Better Than Expected May Jobs Gain
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Large Downward Revisions Concentrated In March
MNI US DATA: AHE Unrounded - May 2025
A sizeable beat for AHE growth (0.4% M/M vs 0.3% expected), considering the average work week was as expected at 34.3. It of course follows yesterday's surprisingly strong ULC increase for Q1 at 6.6% annualized.
MNI US DATA: Mixed Household Survey, Highest Unrounded Unemployment Rate Since Oct 2021
The main standout statistic from May's Household Survey is the tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.244% from 4.187%, which while keeping the rate at 4.2% in line with consensus suggested that upward pressure on the rate continues. Indeed most statistics underlying the unemployment rate largely pointed to steady weakening in the labor market, though the report was mixed overall.
MNI CANADA DATA: Canada May Jobless Rate 7%, Highest Since 2016 Ex-Pandemic
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 463.6 points (1.1%) at 42781.79
S&P E-Mini Future up 64.5 points (1.08%) at 6010.5
Nasdaq up 246 points (1.3%) at 19543.94
US 10-Yr yield is up 11.7 bps at 4.5076%
US Sep 10-Yr futures are down 28/32 at 109-29.5
EURUSD down 0.0047 (-0.41%) at 1.1399
USDJPY up 1.28 (0.89%) at 144.81
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.28 (2.02%) at $64.65
Gold is down $39.32 (-1.17%) at $3313.34
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 19.62 points (0.36%) at 5430.17
FTSE 100 up 26.87 points (0.31%) at 8837.91
German DAX down 19.12 points (-0.08%) at 24304.46
French CAC 40 up 14.6 points (0.19%) at 7804.87
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +11.337, 15.901 (L: 1.079 / H: 16.558)
2Y10Y +0.264, 46.895 (L: 42.01 / H: 47.814)
2Y30Y -2.844, 92.482 (L: 89.694 / H: 96.761)
5Y30Y -4.545, 83.92 (L: 82.459 / H:89.742)
Current futures levels:
Sep 2-Yr futures down 7.5/32 at 103-14.375 (L: 103-13.875 / H: 103-23)
Sep 5-Yr futures down 19.25/32 at 107-16.5 (L: 107-16 / H: 108-06)
Sep 10-Yr futures down 28/32 at 109-29.5 (L: 109-28 / H: 110-29.5)
Sep 30-Yr futures down 1-12/32 at 112-2 (L: 112-01 / H: 113-23)
Sep Ultra futures down 1-16/32 at 115-12 (L: 115-10 / H: 117-09)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Reversal Extends
Treasury futures traded sharply lower Friday, extending the reversal from Thursday’s high. The move down does undermine a recent bullish theme. An extension would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and Thursday’s high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Jun 25 -0.015 at 95.678
Sep 25 -0.075 at 95.855
Dec 25 -0.110 at 96.090
Mar 26 -0.135 at 96.285
Red Pack (Jun 26-Mar 27) -0.155 to -0.145
Green Pack (Jun 27-Mar 28) -0.155 to -0.135
Blue Pack (Jun 28-Mar 29) -0.125 to -0.12
Gold Pack (Jun 29-Mar 30) -0.12 to -0.11
REFERENCE RATES (PRIOR SESSION)
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage slips to $149.284B this afternoon from $152.727B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 24. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bunds Partially Fade Post-ECB Selloff
Core EGBs erased most of a nascent rally Friday, with Gilt yields finishing wider.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
MNI FOREX: USD Index Rises 0.5% Following ‘Solid’ Jobs Report
MONDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
09/06/2025 | 0500/1400 | ![]() | Economy Watchers Survey | |
09/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ![]() | ECB Elderson On Rule Of Law At Italian Court | |
09/06/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Trade |
09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
09/06/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | ![]() | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
10/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | ![]() | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |