IRAN: Foriegn Min Warns E3 Against Non-Compliance Resolution At IAEA

• The Estoxx futures is slowly closing the Opening gap, not a Tech level, and the is fairly gradual.
• In Cash, Stoxx600 is down 0.42%, with Retail (-1.71%), Healthcare (-1.07%), Realestate (-0.84) the worst performing Sectors.
• Basic resources, Media are the leading sectors, up 0.48% and 0.44% respectively.
• Initial support in VGM5 will be at 5178.00, Yesterday's low.

The MEF has bought:

• E1,545mln of the 0.50% Feb-26 BTP at 98.953..
• E942mln of the 4.50% Mar-26 BTP at 102.010.
• E604mln of the 0% Apr-26 BTP at 98.295.
• E872mln of the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP at 99.408.
• E1,037mln of the 0% Aug-26 BTP at 97.762.

Major EGB futures have rallied to fresh session highs over the last 60 minutes, led by semi-core/peripherals. The space largely brushed aside a Reuters sources article detailing German defence spending plans, with the piece lacking clarity on whether the touted E60bln of additional spending is for 2025 alone or split across the current parliamentary term.

• The limited reaction in German swap spreads suggests the story is consistent with pre-existing sell-side estimates of defence spending increases.
• Bund futures are +16 ticks at 131.07, with initial resistance seen at 131.24 (Apr 5 high). That shields key resistance and the bull trigger at 132.03 (Apr 7 high).
• OAT and BTP futures are up ~25 ticks each, with no obvious driver of outperformance versus Bunds. Today’s LT OAT auction was solid, but doesn’t seem to be enough to account for the outperformance.
• The German curve has bull flattened, with 30-year yields 3bps lower on the session. 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are now up to 2bps tighter.
• Italy has held a buyback transaction this morning.
• Eurozone March retail sales were in line with consensus at -0.1% M/M, vs a one tenth downwardly revised 0.2% prior.
• Global macro focus turns to this evening's FOMC decision.