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Jun-06 16:14

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GERMANY: Border Control Order Risks Difficult Conversations For Merz w/Polish PM

May-07 16:02

Bild reports that Germany's Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has, on his first day in officee issued an order to halt all undocumented migrants at the country's external borders, even if they make claims for asylum. Bild: "In addition, Dobrindt – also today – revoked in writing a verbal instruction to the Federal Police from former Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière (71, CDU) from 2015. According to this instruction, "Third-country nationals without residence permits and who submit a request for asylum are to be permitted entry." Dobrindt has now stopped that."

  • The order, intended to indicate that the 'grand coalition' gov't, headed by conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, will take a hard line on immigration, risks a tense meeting with Polish PM Donald Tusk for the new head of gov't in the hours ahead.
  • Merz has sought to use his first full day in office to tout his commitment to European security with the Weimar Triangle alliance (Germany, France, Poland) leading the way.
  • However, closing Germany's external border to undocumented migrants risks a rift with Poland, both on the issue of where those undocumented migrants end up and on the functioning of the internal market (given the importance of exports to Germany for Polish economy). Indeed, Politico reported earlier this week "“The current controls at the German-Polish border are already a problem for daily border traffic and the functioning of the EU internal market,” Poland’s chief diplomat in Berlin, Jan Tombiński,[said] “We therefore do not want to see a tightening of border controls.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) More Stable Off Recent Lows

May-07 15:59
  • RES 4: 113-22   1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing 
  • RES 3: 113-04   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
  • RES 2: 112-20+ High May 1 and key new-term resistance
  • RES 1: 112-01+ High May 2
  • PRICE:‌‌ 111-12+ @ 16:56 BST May 7
  • SUP 1: 110-27+ Low May 6  
  • SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 110-00   100-dma
  • SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle

Treasury futures are more stable off recent lows, however the latest pullback has undermined the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-31. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.

US STOCKS: Midday Equity Roundup: Cautious Optimism at Bay

May-07 15:56
  • Stocks are trading near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed late Wednesday morning, the Dow trading higher after trading weaker since Monday - sentiment cautiously buoyed ahead US/China trade talks expected in Geneva over the weekend - not to mention event risk ahead of today's FOMC announcement at 1400ET.
  • Trade negotiations have been less than transparent since the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2 followed by a 90 day pause a week later. Despite Treasury Sec Bessent stating the US is negotiating with "17 major trading partners" Tuesday, nothing substantive has been announced.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades up 220.6 points (0.54%) at 41051.33, S&P E-Minis up 6.5 points (0.12%) at 5632.5, Nasdaq down 52.4 points (-0.3%) at 17638.13.
  • Consumer Services and Information Technology sectors underperformed in the first half, interactive media and entertainment shares weighing on the former. Notably, Alphabet trades -6.45% on the back of Apple's Cue, who talks up that they're exploring adding an AI search function to their native browser - and may select Perplexity or Anthropic as options for the product.
  • Laggers in the IT sector included Arista Networks -6.71%, Super Micro Computer -6.07%, Crowdstrike Holdings -4.01% and Apple -2.37%.
  • On the positive side, Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed in the first half, leading gainers in the former included banks and services: Franklin Resources +1.94%, State Street +1.92%, Invesco +1.83% and Assurant +1.81%. Meanwhile, Discretionary stocks included broadline retailers: Best Buy Co +2.83%, Deckers Outdoor +2.31%, Tapestry +2.17%.

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