TARIFFS: US And Chinese Trade Teams To Meet Within Seven Days - Navarro

Jun-06 12:57

White House Senior Trade Counselor, Peter Navarro, has told reporters at the White House he expects a meeting between US and Chinese trade teams to take place “within seven days", following the call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday.

  • When asked about Trump’s claim that progress had been made with Xi on rare earth minerals, Navarro said: “Let’s see what happens with the negotiations but [Trump] was very clear that the rare earth issue will be key to that negotiation and the two presidents have a very clear understanding of the outcomes.
  • Navarro confirms that the US delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USTR Jamieson Greer. His comment suggests that Navarro himself will again not be included in the delegation, likely market-positive due to his hawkish views on China.
  • Earlier in the press remarks, Navarro argued that Trump’s recent 100% increase in steel and aluminium tariffs had been underreported by the press. Navarro cited ‘transhipping’, a method he claims China uses to dump steel on the US market, as justification for the 'no exemption' tariff rate.
  • On the ‘Big Beautiful’ tax and reconciliation bill, Navarro reiterates the White House line that the CBO score for the big is based on flawed methodology. Navarro claims that the CBO score fails to account for growth that will be stimulated by the legislation. Claims that when growth and tariff revenue is included, “it’s a five trillion dollar swing”. 

Historical bullets

US TSY OPTIONS: Large Weekly 5yr Put Option

May-07 12:53

Large Weekly 5yr downside Option:

  • FVA (weekly, expiry 12th May) 107.25p, bought for 00+ in ~42.4k.

GILTS: Off Highs, Post-Auction Momentum Stalls

May-07 12:41

Gilts hold the bulk of the rally detailed earlier, backing away from session highs over the last couple of hours after the post-auction momentum stalled.

  • Futures have traded as high as 93.32, well shy of next resistance at the May 2 high (93.93). Last 93.24.
  • Yields 2-5bp lower on the day, ~1bp off session lows, flattening bias maintained, last week’s yield lows intact/unchallenged across the curve.
  • 2s10s ~13bp below closing cycle highs, 5s30s ~8bp below closing cycle highs.
  • Spread vs. Bunds continues to oscillate in the 195-200bp closing range witnessed over the last 3 sessions
  • Domestic headline flow remains limited, with external cues set to dominate between now and tomorrow’s BoE decision.

BUNDS: German 10yr Yield is nearing 2.50%

May-07 12:28
  • Bund is still probing Monday's high of 131.24 (circa 2.5% in Yield), all very gradual, but Volumes have picked up a little, Schatz was bought in 10k, Bobl 5k.
  • While extreme moves should still be limited ahead of the Fed, further upside traction opens to 131.71, followed by Friday's gap, up to 131.90 and the big one at 132.03.
  • In Yield terms, next support comes at 2.43%, which equates to 132.01, close to that 132.03 level.

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