RUSSIA: Kremlin-Russia 'Grateful For US Mediation Efforts' With Ukraine
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov, speaking to reporters, is asked whether the major drone and missile strikes on Kyiv, Lutsk and the Ternopil region overnight that killed at least three civilians, were in retaliation to the Ukrainian attacks over the weekend, replies, "all military actions are a response to the actions of a terrorist regime in Kyiv." While Kyiv has overtly claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on Russia's air fleet, and the bombing of the Kerch bridge, the Russian gov't accuses Kyiv of bringing down two bridges in incidents that killed seven and injured dozens. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for these incidents.
- Peskov says, regarding US President Donald Trump's comments in the Oval Office that the war is like "two young children fighting like crazy,” and "Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart,” that "this is an existential question, this is a question of our national interests, this is a question of our security..." However, he goes on to say that Russia is "grateful to the US for continuing mediation efforts" and that it is "important to continue contacts".
- The prospect of significant movement on peace talks appears slim in the short-to-medium term at least amid the latest escalation in attacks. The prospect of a major summer offensive from Russian troops could also stymie US or Turkish mediation efforts.
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US TSY OPTIONS: TYM5 109.50 Puts Given
TYM5 109.50 puts ~12K given at 0-07 over the last hour or so.
EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill | 12-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Aug 8, 2025 | Nov 7, 2025 | May 8, 2026 |
| Amount | E788mln | E1.181bln | E1.197bln |
| Target | E1.0bln | E1.5bln | E1.5bln |
| Previous | E1.092bln | E1.062bln | E797mln |
| Avg yield | 2.029% | 1.962% | 1.868% |
| Previous | 2.158% | 2.117% | 1.956% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.3x | 2.19x | 1.73x |
| Previous | 1.72x | 1.69x | 2.54x |
| Previous date | Apr 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Still In Play
- In the equity space, bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5622.98. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support to watch is 5536.59, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a positive tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and attention is on 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break of it would pave the way for a climb towards 5341.00, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch lies at 5082.47, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.
