FED: Miran Appears On Fox Business - Echoing Monday's Sentiment
Sep-25 11:42
"*FED'S MIRAN: OTHERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT TARIFFS THAN I AM" Bloomberg
"*MIRAN: TARIFF REVENUES POURING IN ARE DRIVING DOWN NEUTRAL RATE" Bloomberg
A reminder that Miran laid out his monetary policy rationale in a speech on Monday: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/miran20250922a.htm
In the speech, he focused heavily on his estimates of the neutral rate and applied these estimates to various policy (Taylor) rules. These estimates unsurprisingly advocated for significantly looser Fed policy: "Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate fed funds rate is in the mid-2 percent area, almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy. "
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilt Bear Remain In The Driver's Seat
Aug-26 11:30
- In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and remain above their recent lows. A bear threat is present. The contract recently breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low. Note that 129.00 represents the base of a broad range. A clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.80, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.51.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.31, the Aug 22 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria New 7-Year RAGB: Allocations Out
Aug-26 11:19
- E3bln WNG (excl. E250mln issuer retention) of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
- Spread set earlier at MS+30 (guidance was MS+33 area)
- Books closed in excess of EUR 19bn, including EUR 1.8bn JLM interest
- Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
- Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
- Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
- ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
- Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
- DB=DM/B&D. HR 103% vs DBR 1.7 08/15/32
- Hedge deadline 13.40CET / 12.40UKT
From market source
ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Mandate
Aug-26 11:14
- USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- IPT: MS + 42 bps area (equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
- Timing: Taking IOIs today, expect to price tomorrow
From market source.
USD3bln of an ESM USD Bond will mature on September 10. That line was a 5-year issue also initially.
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