JPY: Mimura Headlines Don't Suggest Intervention An Imminent Risk
Comments crossing from Japan's top currency official Mimura in recent minutes. Seems to have helped USDJPY inch away from session highs.
However, while the comments suggest officials are concerned/are monitoring FX movements, they do not indicate intervention is an imminent risk.
- "*JAPAN'S MIMURA: RECENT YEN MOVES DEVIATE FROM FUNDAMENTALS" bbg
- "*MIMURA: YEN LONG POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AFTER SUMMER"
- "*MIMURA: SPECULATION, GEOPOLITICS, TRADE ALL AFFECTING MARKET"
- "*MIMURA: FX EXCESSIVE VOLATILITY, NOT LEVELS, MAIN CONCERN"
Prior examples of "intervention risk" type comments to watch out for: "We can't tolerate speculative moves."...."We will take appropriate action if needed." ...."We're ready to take action at any time."
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4061 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3987 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3948 @ 08:12 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3830 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3830, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6614 @ 08:05 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6560. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
MNI: SWISS SEP UNEMPLOYMENT +0.9% M/M, +17.7% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS SEP UNEMPLOYMENT +0.9% M/M, +17.7% Y/Y
- SWISS SEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3.0%
