OIL: Mexico’s Platforms & Most Oil Exporting Terminals Still Shut
Pemex’s oil platforms and all but one crude-exporting terminal remain shut due to bad weather, according to a statement cited by Bloomberg.
- The port of Madero/Tampico, the loading point of heavy sour Altamira crude, reopened.
- Most cargoes are taken by the Valero Port Arthur refinery, Texas.
- Offshore platforms halted operations Dec. 11.
- Meanwhile, movements at Dos Bocas were halted Dec. 10.
- Salina Cruz has suspended operations since at least Dec. 10 also.
- Altamira crude is 15%-17.5% API and 5.5% sulphur.
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BONDS: Off Highs, U.S. CPI Seemingly Set To Have Little Impact On PCE
Core global FI markets fade from post-CPI highs, with the perceived lack of impact on PCE readings factoring in.
- The USD was much quicker to reverse data-driven weakness than Tsys were to unwind the data-driven bid.
- Fed Funds still showing ~20bp of cuts for next month, with much of the CPI-driven dovish move sticking in that contract.
- Further out, Dec ’25 FOMC pricing has showed 66-81bp of cuts since the lead up to the data, last ~75bp, 6bp more dovish on the day.
- Tsy curve twist steepens on the day, yields last 6bp lower to 4bp higher.
- Bunds and Gilts 2bp wider on the day vs. Tsys.
EUROZONE DATA: First Look At Q3 Productivity Tomorrow
The preliminary (second) reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is due tomorrow at 1000GMT/1100CET. Sequential quarterly GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the advance reading of 0.4% Q/Q (which was above the ECB’s 0.2% projection from September). As such, more interest will lie in the employment growth and real productivity metrics.
- The ECB project employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and real productivity per employee growth at 0.2% Q/Q. If realised, this would be the first positive sequential productivity reading in six quarters.
- However, we note that productivity surprised the ECB to the downside in Q1 and Q2.
- A recovery in productivity growth underpins the ECB’s forecast for easing unit labour costs through 2026. Such a dynamic is a pre-requisite for further disinflation in services HICP, which has been sticky around 4% Y/Y throughout 2024.
US: Punchbowl-Former Democrat Gabbard In The Mix For National Intelligence Role
Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News posts on X: "Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is in the mix to be named director of national intelligence, according to a source familiar. This is a Senate confirmed position. Gabbard served in the House as a Democrat from 2013-2021." Gabbard ran for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, garnering just two delegates but was the penultimate candidate to end their campaign before the eventual confirmation of Joe Biden as nominee.
- A long-serving member of the military, Gabbard has advocated an isolationist foreign policy and in 2024 confirmed her backing of Donald Trump's election campaign, eventually becoming a prominent voice on the campaign trail and officially joining the party after two years as an independent.
- The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) is a senior Cabinet-level position and acts as the executive head of the 18 agencies forming the US Intelligence Community, including the CIA and NSA. The role is currently held by Avril Haines.
