AMERICAS REFINING: Mexico’s Climate Pledges Contrast with Refining Strategy

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.91 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 176.18 @ 17:10 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.87 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. First key support to watch lies at 174.87, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A reversal higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.  

Heavy SOFR and Treasury option volumes Tuesday, flow mixed & varied - SOFR leaning towards upside call structures. Underlying futures are firmer, off early highs (Sep 17 lvls - prior to FOMC rate cut). Projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs. late Monday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.2bp (-24.7bp), Dec'25 at -48.4bp (-48.1bp), Jan'26 at -61.2bp (-61bp), Mar'26 at -74.1bp (-73.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, 10,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 1.5 net
  • Block, 25,000 0QZ5 98.00 call spds, 1.25 net ref 97.035
  • -10,000 SFRX5 96.37 straddles 10-8 ref 96.37
  • Block/screen +90,000 0QZ5 98.00 calls, 1.0 ref 97.035
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 1.5
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.31/96.43 2x3x1 put flys, 0.5
  • +4,000 SFRX5 96.25/96.31/96.43/96.50 put flys, 4.25
  • -2,000 SFRX5 96.37 straddles 10-9.5
  • 2,100 SFRZ6 96.62/97.00 2x1 put spds
  • over 8,300 SFRZ5 96.06/96.18 2x1 put spds ref 96.375
  • over 20,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.50/96.56 broken call flys, 2.75 ref 96.38
  • 2,500 SFRZ5 96.12/96.37/96.62 call flys ref 96.375
  • Block, +2,500 0QZ5 96.75/96.87 put spds, 3.5 ref 97.035
  • Block, -3,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37 put spds, 3.75 ref 96.375
  • +16,000 SFRF6 96.68/96.87/97.06 call flys, 2.5 ref 96.385/0.05%
  • -2,000 0QZ5 96.68/96.81 2x1 put spds 0.5 vs. 97.025/0.05%
  • +2,000 SFRZ5 96.06/96.12/96.18/96.25 put condors, 1.0 vs. 96.405/0.06%
  • +4,000 0QZ5 96.12/96.50 put spds, 1.0 ref 97.015/0.05%
  • +2,200 0QH6 97.12 calls, 21.5 ref 97.075
  • over 5,700 SFRF6 96.87 calls ref 96.62
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.56 call spds, 1.0 ref 96.38
  • 7,500 SFRZ5 96.62/97.00 2x1 put spds, 0.5 ref 97.075
  • 1,500 0QZ5 97.12/97.25/97.37/97.50 call condors ref 97.075
  • +17,000 SFRU6 96.56/96.81 2x1 put spds, 1-2 ref 96.97 to 97.005
  • +3,500 SFRM6 97.00 calls, 18.5 vs. 96.84/0.40%
• Treasury Options:
  • Block: 10,000 TYZ5 115 calls 16 vs. 13,000 TYG6 115.5 calls 31, vs. 1,000 TYZ 113-07.5
  • over 2,700 USX5/USZ5 114 put spds, 19 ref 118-05
  • Block, 7,000 TUZ5 103.87/104.12/104.25/104.37 broken put condors, 0.5 net
  • 10,000 TYZ5 114.5 calls, 22 ref 113-08
  • -8,000 TYZ5 113.5/114.5 call spds, 8
  • -5,000 TYF5 113.5 straddles, 210
  • 1,000 USX5 115/117 put spds, 15 ref 118-20
  • 1,500 TYX5 112.75 puts, 9
  • 1,000 TYZ5 111.5/113 put spds
  • -4,000 FVZ5 109.5 puts, 23 ref 109-25.5
  • 3,000 TYX5 114/115 call spds over 111.5 puts ref 113-13
  • 2,500 TUZ5 105 calls, 3.5 ref 104-13.75
  • -3,000 TYZ5 115 calls, 19
  • +2,500 TUX5 104.25 straddles, 16
  • +3,000 TYX5 111.5/114 strangles, 14
  • +2,000 FVX5 109.25/109.5 strangles, 31.5
  • -2,000 FVX5 109.25/109.75/110/110.75 broken call condors, 11.5
  • +2,500 TUZ5 105 calls, 3.5 ref 104-13.75
  • 6,000 TYX5 114.5 calls, 5 ref 113-11
  • +3,000 TYZ5 114 calls, 37 vs. 113-14/0.41%
  • +10,000 TYZ5 114.5 calls 6 over 111.5/112.5 put spd ref 113-09
  • -20,400 TYX5 113.5 calls, 16 ref 113-06 to -06.5
  • -9,600 TYX5 112 puts, 3 ref 113-05.5
  • 3,400 wk3 TY 113 puts, 8 ref 113-04.5

• Spot gold rose to yet another record high today, peaking at $4,179.7/oz, before paring gains. Currently, bullion is up by 1.0% at $4,150, taking total gains this month to over 7.5%.
• A bull cycle in gold remains intact and this week’s very strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Sights are on the $4,200.00 handle, and $4,239.7, a Fibonacci projection point.
• Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3,889.7, the 20-day EMA.
• Silver also rose to a fresh-time high earlier today, before pulling back more sharply, with the precious metal currently trading 1.0% lower at $51.9/oz.
• Trend signals in silver also remain bullish, with recent gains resulting in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme.
• Meanwhile, copper has also pulled back today amid concerns over US-China trade tensions, with price down by 2.4% at $502/lb.
• Copper futures remain in a corrective consolidation mode, with next resistance at $550.00, the Jul 9 and 28 lows. Initial support is at $440.55, the Jul 31 low.
• WTI crude is weaker today, weighing signs of the heightened trade tensions alongside oversupply concerns.
• WTI Nov 25 is down by 1.3% at $58.7/bbl.
• The move down opens $57.50 next, the May 30 low.