MEXICO: Mexico: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission
The IMF projects 1% economic growth this year and accelerate a bit in 2026. That is higher than the .2% real GDP growth they previously anticipated for 2025.
They expect a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP this year. The fiscal deficit projections stated in the budget for 2026 imply gross debt to GDP to rise to 61.5%, which is not much higher than the current forecast for this year at 60.7%.
They view that level as sustainable, but the IMF suggests a fiscal deficit target of 2.5% by 2027 which would be 1% below the annual target currently projected to allow for a buffer against potential future shocks.
The IMF viewed monetary policy as "still restrictive"and also noted trade tensions with the US have weighed on consumption and investment.
Please see the link for more information:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/09/19/cs-mexico-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission
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Slightly hawkish minutes (pre-NFP) sees support in Tsys gradually cooling.
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- -5,000 WNU5 117.5 puts 30 vs. 117-16/0.50%
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- Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.489 at 54.121, 5s30s +.472 at 108.714.
