ITALY DATA: May Services PMI: Strongest Since June 2024, Employment Rising

Jun-04 07:51

The Italian services PMI was stronger-than-expected at 53.2 (vs 52.0 cons, 52.9 prior), the highest level since June 2024. That brings the composite PMI to 52.5 (vs 51.4 cons, 52.1 prior), the highest since April 2024. Services employment continued to tick up on May, consistent with the record-low Italian unemployment level reported yesterday.

Key notes from the release:

  • "Overall new work volumes continued to rise at a modest pace in May. The latest increase was the fourth in successive months and was a result of incoming new orders from both existing and new customers, panel member reports showed".
  • "There were signs that the sustained growth in orders was held up by the domestic market as new export business declined further in May...Challenging global economic conditions reportedly weighed on demand for Italian services".
  • "In line with greater new business, there was a similarly strong increase in service sector employment levels in May".
  • "The level of confidence was the highest for three months in May, with nearly one-third (32%) of respondents forecasting a rise in activity over the year. The prospect of new client wins as well as plans to invest and expand business drove positive sentiment"
  • "Input price inflation remained elevated, meanwhile, amid reports of increased energy prices and wage burdens"..."Service providers increased their selling prices at a sharper rate in response to greater cost pressures. The rate of charge inflation picked up to its strongest in just over a year".
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Historical bullets

AUD: Best performer within G10s

May-05 07:14
  • While just off its best level, the AUD is still the best performer against the Dollar within G10 Currencies, the Aussie has extended through the 2025 high on Friday and has found a boost following Albanese's win over the Weekend.
  • Tariffs risks are still the major concern, but some of the continuity in Policy could be seen as supportive at least short Term.
  • Next resistance in AUDUSD comes at 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24, and upside traction could be on the card, although Trade risks are at the forefront.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

May-05 07:08
  • RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
  • RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
  • RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
  • PRICE: $32.385 @ 08:07 BST May 5
  • SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 2
  • SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
  • SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforced the current bullish theme. This suggests the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Price has traded below support at $322.443, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the latest uptrend.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor

May-05 07:03

ERU5 98.50/98.37/98.25/98.00p condor, bought for flat in 6.2k.