CANADA DATA: Manufacturing Sales Fall Again In November Advance

Unusually released after monthly GDP data, the advance estimate for manufacturing sales points to another sizeable decline in November as it unwinds September strength, although with that prior strength still seeing solid momentum. 

• Manufacturing sales are indicated to have slipped another -1.1% M/M in November according to the StatCan advance release, after -1.0% in Oct and 3.6% in Sep (all nominal figures).
• The press release notes that the “largest decreases were in the transportation equipment and food subsectors."
• Previous strong monthly increases still see the trend 3m/3m run rate at 10.5% annualized having peaked at 12% in September. Sales are recovering after sliding -17% annualized in June on the hit from US tariffs.
• This advance was calculated with a weighted response rate of 69%, typical for recent months (68.5% in Oct, 67.7% Sep, 68.2% Aug and 70% Jul). The average final response rate over the past twelve months has been 93%.
• It leaves manufacturing lagging other sales estimates specifically for November, with retail at a strong 1.2% M/M after a disappointing -0.2% in Oct and core wholesale at 0.1% M/M after an equally subdued 0.0%. It is however also running at a stronger recent trend but that’s after a period of heightened volatility – see charts.
• Yesterday’s monthly GDP report pointed to a somewhat tepid 0.1% M/M bounce in November after -0.3% in October (in real terms). StatCan had noted that downside in Nov came from “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing”.