ITALY DATA: Manufacturing PMI marginally below 50 but encouraging factors

Aug-01 07:51

Italian PMI manufacturing came in stronger than expected at 49.8 in July (48.7 exp, 48.4 June). This is the highest print since March 2023 and only marginally below the 50 breakeven threshold. The details were marginally encouraging. The following from the press release:

  • "There were signs that the downturn had subsided at the start of the third quarter. New orders declined at a marginal rate, while output fell to a softer degree compared to the month prior."
  • "Both input and output prices rose in July for the first time in three months."
  • "Amid the near stabilisation of operating conditions, confidence in the outlook picked up. Hopes for improved economic and geopolitical conditions, new product launches and client wins underpinned growth expectations."
  • "Manufacturers continued to trim their staffing levels at the start of the third quarter, marking the tenth consecutive month of cuts. Although, the rate of decline was the fastest in three months, it was largely attributed to leavers over terminations."

Historical bullets

JAPAN: Ishiba: No Demand For Defense Spending at 5% GDP

Jul-02 07:50

"*ISHIBA: JAPAN WILL DECIDE ON INCREASE IN DEFENSE BUDGET ITSELF" Bloomberg
"*ISHIBA: HASN'T BEEN ANY DEMAND FOR DEFENSE SPEND AT 5% OF GDP" Bloomberg

SPAIN DATA: June Labour Market Data Steady, Political Risks Weighing On SPGBs

Jul-02 07:48

There were steady developments in Spanish registered labour market data for June. Unemployment claims fell by 48.9k, broadly in line with June 2024’s -46.8k and 2023’s -50.3k. 

  • On the employment side, growth of 40.4k was above June 2024’s 34.2k and 2023’s 18.1k, but below 2022 and 2021 changes.
  • Looking ahead, the employment outlook in Spain remains fairly solid, with the EC’s expected employment indicator at 109.2 in June (vs 107.1 in May, 108.4 in April).
  • Despite Spain's relatively resilient economic outlook, domestic political risks have contributed to SPGB underperformance versus peers through June. PM Sanchez is under growing pressure amid a corruption scandal. Latest from our political risk team on those developments here
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Ratio Call Spread Buyer

Jul-02 07:27

ERQ5 98.125/98.25cs 1x2, bought the 1 for 2 in 5k.