JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.95 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 141.23 @ 15:55 GMT Apr 16
- SUP 1: 139.52 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs are extending the strong bullish reversal, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.360 - High Dec 11
- PRICE: 96.250 @ 16:41 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures have pulled back from their most recent highs - a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for 96.360, the Dec 11 high. Clearance of this level would open 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of the downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Weaker, RBA Hunter Speech Due
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -1.0) are slightly weaker after a modest twist-flattener by US tsys on Monday.
- US tsy yields rose to their daily highs after Retail Sales data was released, with the market focusing more on the stronger control group sales, but the move wasn’t sustained and yields subsequently tracked lower.
- Headline advance retail sales were much weaker than expected in February at 0.2% M/M (0.6% expected, -1.2% prior rev from -0.9%), but this was offset by strong performances in core categories. But the control group sales rose 1.0% vs the 0.4% expected, more than offsetting the downward revision to Jan (-1.0% vs -0.8% prelim).
- The headline manufacturing index slipped -20 (cons -2) in March from +5.7. It was the lowest since Jan 2024.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at
- Swap rates are 1-3bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip is -3 to -4.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today.
- Today, Assistant RBA Governor Hunter (Economic) will give a speech at the AFR Banking Summit.
- However, the highlight of the week is likely to be Thursday’s jobs data for February.
US TSYS: Futures Little Changed, US Retail Sales Data Mixed
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-18+, -0-01 from closing levels.
- US tsys finished the NY session showing a twist-flattening, with yields 3bps higher to 3bps lower, pivoting at the 7-year.
- US tsy yields rose to their daily highs after Retail Sales data was released, with the market focusing more on the stronger control group sales, but the move wasn’t sustained and yields subsequently tracked lower.
- Headline advance retail sales were much weaker than expected in February at 0.2% M/M (0.6% expected, -1.2% prior rev from -0.9%), but this was offset by strong performances in core categories. But the control group sales rose 1.0% vs the 0.4% expected, more than offsetting the downward revision to Jan (-1.0% vs -0.8% prelim).
- Headline manufacturing index slipped -20 (cons -2) in March from +5.7. It’s the lowest since Jan 2024 having been at its strongest reading since a particularly strong 20.2 in Nov and before that Apr 2023.
