BTP TECHS: (M5) Northbound
- RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.99 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.84 @ 07:27 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 119.07/118.41 High Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures rallied sharply higher last week and the contract maintains a bullish tone. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of the Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels a recent bearish threat. Note too that, 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg, has been cleared - a bullish development. This opens 120.12 next, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 118.41, the 20-day EMA.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C March 24, 2025
Germany, France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E20.9bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will come to the market with E2bln of the 3-month Jun 18, 2025 Bubill and E2bln of the 9-month Dec 10, 2025 Bubill.
- This afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E8.2bln of 13/14/26/52-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the 13-week Jun 25, 2025 BTF; E0.4-0.8bln of the 14-week Jul 2, 2025 BTF; E1.8-2.2bln of the 26-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF; E1.4-1.8bln of the new 52-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday morning, Austria will sell E1bln of the 4-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB and E0.75bln of the new, green 6-month Sep 25, 2025 ATB.
- On Wednesday, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
- Finally on Thursday, Italy will come to the market with a 6-month BOT, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced this evening.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Is Bullish
- RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5562.87 0.764 proj of the Feb 3 - Mar 3 - 11 price swing
- RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
- PRICE: 5383.00 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 5285.44/5229.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5202.00 Low Feb 2
- SUP 3: 5160.00 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The medium-term trend direction is up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5285.44. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high.
STIR: SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 Put Spread Lifted
SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread paper paid -3.0 on 2K.
