BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.66 @ Close May 22
- SUP 1: 119.25/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
- SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
- SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9
A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase continues to signal potential for a pullback. Key support to watch lies at 119.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.72, the May 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.
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BRENT TECHS: (M5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $75.47 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.85 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.15 @ 07:02 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are holding on to their recent gains and continue to trade above the Apr 9 low. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $69.85.
MNI: CORRECT: UK MAR CGNCR GBP21.05 BN
- CORRECT: UK MAR CGNCR GBP21.05 BN
UK DATA: CGNCR GBP7.9bln higher for FY24/25 - will lead into remit revision
- Central government net cash requirement (excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail) was £21.1 billion in March 2025; this was £7.4 billion less than in March 2024, and brings the total for the FYE March 2025 to £180.5 billion, £7.9 billion more than forecast by the OBR.
- This is what feeds into the remit revision - so a slightly smaller remit revision is likely as this isn't quite as bad as expected (despite the accrual measures such as PSNBex coming in higher this month with an upward revision).
