BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 5773.25 High Apr 2    
• RES 3: 5652.57 50-day EMA        
• RES 2: 5528.75 High Apr 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5437.24 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5205.75 @ 06:54 BST Apr 22   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 

A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. The latest move down signals the end of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5437.24, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: SWEDEN MAR UNEMPLOYMENT 8.5%

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 1: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:55 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 0.8520 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8477 61.8% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally  
• SUP 3: 0.8442 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. The retracement has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 0.8520, the 20-day EMA. Below this level, support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8442. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.