BTP TECHS: (M5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 118.37 High Apr 1
- PRICE: 118.13 @ Close Apr 1
- SUP 1: 117.45 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 116.89 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 116.15 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Mar 14
Recent gains in BTP futures still appear corrective in nature. However, the contract traded higher again yesterday and maintains a firmer short-term tone. A continuation of the current short-term bull phase would signal scope for an extension towards 118.62, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key near-term support is at 116.89, the Mar 25 low. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0437/0533 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0413 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
EURUSD is trading closer to its most recent lows and below the Feb 26 low. The pair has breached support at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low, and price is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a possible bearish reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 1.0272, Feb 4 low. For bulls, key short-term resistance is 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a recent bull theme and open 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Intact Despite Pullback
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24
- RES 2: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 133.23 Intraday high
- PRICE: 132.54 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 133.46 High Feb 28
- SUP 2: 131.83/26 Low Feb 24 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. For now, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, following recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high, and this signals scope for a climb towards 133.71, the Feb 5 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. The first important support lies at 131.83, the Feb 24 low.
CHINA: Country Wrap: Disposable Income doubles In Less than 10 Years.
- China studying countermeasures against further US tariffs (source: Global Times)
- The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently released data showing that in 2024, the nationwide per capita disposable income reached 41,314 yuan ($5,672), exceeding 40,000 yuan for the first time - nearly double the 21,996 yuan recorded in 2015. (source: Global Times)
- China’s equity markets are stronger today, leading into the NPC with Hang Seng up +1.3%, CSI 300 +.4%, Shanghai +0.28%, Shenzhen +0.93%.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1745 Per USD; Estimate 7.2859
- Bonds remain quiet with the 10YR unchanged at 1.77%
