JGB TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Intact For Now

• Treasuries look to finish modestly higher for the most part Tuesday, curves flatter (2s10s -3.888 at 48.575) with short end rates underperforming. Cautious early optimism over tariff relief (or delay) for autos buoyed rates and stocks in early trade, evaporated in the second half, markets wary of tariff related headline risk.
• Treasuries inch off lows earlier after Empire Mfg comes out less negative than expected, both import & export price index figures lower than expected, prior import prices down revised while prior export prices are up-revised.
• The Empire manufacturing survey improved by more than expected in April to -8.1 (cons -13.5) after a weak -20.0 in March although forward-looking aspects in particular make for sour reading.
• Overall import prices fell -0.1% M/M (cons 0.0%) in March after a downward revised 0.2% (initial 0.4%) in February. For a better idea of underlying price pressures, imports ex petroleum prices saw a larger miss with 0.0% M/M (cons 0.3) after 0.1% (initial 0.4%).
• Jun'25 10Y futures currently +7.5 at 110-31.5, nearing initial technical resistance at 111-00+/111-20 (20-day EMA / High Apr 9). Cross asset: Bbg US$ index mear highs: +3.84 at 1233.90, stocks weaker w/ SPX eminis -8.75 at 5432.00.
• Focus on midweek data: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index while Fed Chair Powell will discuss his outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago (text, Q&A) at 1330ET.

• RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.6383 3.0% 10-dma envelope & Intraday High
• PRICE: 0.6360 @ 16:09 BST Apr 15 
• SUP 1: 0.6232 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following a strong reversal last week. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6267. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6232, the 20-day EMA.         

Other institutions are relatively more dovish on BoC cut prospects: two see rates ending up below 2%, including JPMorgan and Desjardins.