FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: LT OAT Auction (2/2)

Feb-06 08:44
  • The new 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5) will be launched, replacing the 3.00% Nov-34 OAT as the on-the-run issue. We would expect at least 50% of today's auction to be allocated to this issue as has been the case in every 10-year launch auction from 2021. We would pencil in a range of around E6.5-8.0bln overall. The January auction saw E7.059bln of the 3.00% Nov-34 OAT sold, the largest single line at a LT OAT auction since this OAT's launch in June where E7.174bln was sold. Auction sizes for the 3.00% Nov-34 OAT ranged from E4.956bln to E7.174bln with bid-to-covers ranging from 1.98x to 2.25x.
  • The on-the-run 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4) was last re-opened in January and attracted a 2.37x bid-to-cover for the E2.153bln issued. Since its launch in February 2024, bid-to-covers have been wide ranging between 2.37-2.84x with the amount sold varying from E1.415bln to 2.153bln.
  • The 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044) was also last re-opened in January and attracted a 2.85x bid-to-cover for the E1.840bln sold.
  • The 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) was last re-opened in August and attracted a 2.35x bid-to-cover for E1.856bln sold. In 2024, bid-to-covers remained between 1.70-2.35x range with the amount issued varying from E1.856-4.623bln.
  • Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 9:50GMT / 10:50CET.

Historical bullets

MNI: EUROZONE DECEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.9 (NOV 42.7)

Jan-07 08:30
  • MNI: EUROZONE DECEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.9 (NOV 42.7)

GILTS: Flat Start, Long End Supply Due

Jan-07 08:20

Little net movement in gilts as softer-than-expected French CPI counters earlier selling in Bunds.

  • Futures +10 at 92.05,
  • Bearish technicals intact in the contract.
  • Initial support at the Dec 19 low/bear trigger (91.64), while initial resistance is located at the Jan 2 high (92.88).
  • Yields little changed across the curve to start.
  • Gilt/Bund 10-Year yield spread flat at 216bp.
  • SONIA futures 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day with wider bonds off lows and BoE-dated OIS showing 57bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 56bp early today.
  • DMO issuance for calendar ’25 gets underway this morning, via GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.

BONDS: Bobl/Bund Block trade

Jan-07 08:13

Bobl/Bund block trade suggest a steepener, perfectly weighted.

  • RXH5 ~2.35k sold at 132.40.
  • OEH5 ~4.95k bought for 117.25.