US LNG: LNG Canada Wins Place on PM Carney’s Favoured Projects List

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXV5 127/125ps, bought for 27.5 in 1k.
• RXV5 126.50/125.50/125.00 broken put ladder, bought for 4 in 1k.
• SFIU5 96.10/96.25cs, bought for 1 in 1.5k.
• SFIM6 96.90/97.10cs vs 96.00/95.85ps, bought the cs for 1.25 in 5k.

Eurozone excess liquidity increased by E1.711bln during the w/c August 4 (weekly average) after a E14.899bln decrease in the previous week, bringing the measure to E2.661trn as of last Friday, August 8. Despite the slight increase this time, excess liquidity is continuing its longer-term downtrend, down by 45% from the series' high of E4.748trn in November 2022.

• The long-term decline since the peak has mostly been driven by a roll-off of the ECB's TLTROs (with the TLTRO III programme starting in 2019 with three-year maturities and with the final maturity in Dec 2024) as well as of the ECB's Monetary Policy Positions (MPPs), which are standing at a current E3.924trn combined.
• Amongst the MPPs, the ECB envisages a further average monthly roll-off of around E13.4bln of the PEPP through Dec-26 and of around E28.6bln of the APP  through Jul-26 (respective f'cast horizons).

Samantha Handler at Punchbowl reports that Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) has acknowledged that President Donald Trump's removal of former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, Erica McEntarfer, was "understandable". Cassidy chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, which has jurisdiction over the nomination of EJ Antoni to replace McEntarfer at the BLS.  

• Cassidy's spokesperson said in a statement: "BLS's years-long failure to produce reliable data - especially when that data has broad market-moving implications - is unacceptable. We need a BLS Commissioner committed to producing accurate, unbiased economic information to the American people. Chairman Cassidy looks forward to meeting with Dr. Antoni to dicuss how he will accomplish this."
• In the last hour or so, Fox Business published an interview with Antoni, conducted before Trump announced his nomination, in which he suggested the possibility of suspending the bureau's monthly jobs report. See: US: BLS Commissioner Nominee Antoni Suggests Suspending Monthly Payrolls Report
• The HELP Committee has an 11-10 Republican balance of power, meaning moderate Republican committee member Susan Collins (R-ME) is likely to be the crucial vote on advancing Antoni's nomination to a full Senate vote. Collins, an institutionalist, theoretically has the power to delay Antoni's nomination, subject to assurances that the BLS will maintain critical data releases.
• When lawmakers return from recess on September 2, time on the Senate floor will be limited as Senators must also address FY26 funding, pending exec branch nominations, and the nomination of Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacant Fed seat.