OAT: Light Widening In OAT/Bund As Unions Announce New Day Of Protests
Sep-24 11:13
"FRENCH TRADE UNIONS ANNOUNCE PLANNED NEW DAY OF PROTESTS ON OCT 2 AFTER MEETING WITH PM LECORNU, SAYS THE CFDT UNION" Reuters
That headline was worth ~0.5bps of widening in the 10-year OAT/Bund spread, now at 82bps. It underscores the difficult situation facing new PM Lecornu, much like his predecessors Bayrou and Barnier. More to follow from our political risk team.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-25 10:56
- On the commodity front, the medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. First support is $3311.6, the Aug 20 low.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-25 10:47
- In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1596. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- Strong gains on Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.
US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update - Massive Volume
Aug-25 10:37
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete jumped to over a third of outstanding Sep'25 open interest after Friday's massive volume. "First Notice" date next week Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 91,400 from -8.75 to -8.5, -8.75 last; 41% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 69,500 from -5.25 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 39% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 198,500 from -1.25 to -1.0, -1.25 last; 38% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 138,800 from -0.5 to +0.0, -0.5 last; 37% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 25,400 from 12.5 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 41% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 48,000 from 7.5 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 41% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
