AUSTRALIA: Liberal Leadership Vote On 13 Feb w/Taylor Likely To Replace Ley
The main opposition centre-right Liberal Party room will hold a meeting at ~09:00 local time (17:00ET, 22:00GMT) on Friday, 13 Feb, with rising expectations that former shadow defence minister Angus Taylor will be successful in his efforts to replace incumbent party leader Susan Ley. Other Liberal lawmakers followed Taylor in resigning from the shadow cabinet, with Senator James Paterson, who intends to support Taylor, saying, “This is a change or die moment for the Liberal Party. We must change, or we will not continue to exist.” As ABC notes, "Liberal sources in both the Ley and Taylor camps acknowledge that support is firming for the conservative challenger Mr Taylor."
- Ley, hailing from the moderate wing of the Liberal Party, defeated the more outspoken conservative Taylor in the May 2025 leadership spill that followed the coalition's disastrous performance in the federal election by a margin of 29 to 25. However, given the number of resignations from the shadow cabinet and erstwhile Ley allies such as Senator James McGrath declaring for Taylor, Ley's short tenure looks to be approaching an end.
- A Taylor-led Liberal Party would likely look to take on the right-wing populist One Nation Party, which has recently soared in opinion polls (see AUSTRALIA: Liberals Leader Could Face Challenge Amid ONP Surge). This could take the pressure off PM Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party, with the parties of the right battling among themselves, leaving the ALP to claim the moderate centre ground.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Earnings Ahead
Last week's record pace of corporate bond issuance ($164.15B) has throttled back this week as the next earnings cycle kicks off: Bank of NY Mellon and JPM announced this morning - JPM shares gaining after 4Q EPS $4.63, EST. $5.01. Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $950M Rentenbank 7Y SOFR+37
- 01/13 $500M MuniFin WNG 4Y SOFR+31a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Benin 7Y Sukuk, 2038 and/or 2041 TAP
- 01/13 $Benchmark Woori Bank 3Y investor calls
- 01/13 $Benchmark Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) 3Y investor calls
- $10.4B Priced Monday
SEK: KIX Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Is Stronger Than Riksbank 2028 Forecast
The KIX nominal effective exchange rate was 114.6 yesterday, the lowest level in four years (indicating a stronger SEK) and notably below the Riksbank’s 2028 KIX forecast of 114.9 in the December MPR. In December, the Riksbank continued to assert that the krona was undervalued relative to “long-term determinants”. If recent strengthening in the effective exchange rate persists, the Board may opt to drop this guidance at future decisions. On a real effective exchange rate basis, the krona is now broadly in line with its 10-year average (though still strong relative to its 5-year average).
- The exchange rate is relevant for the Riksbank’s inflation projections and therefore the policy rate path. The current deviation of the KIX from the December MPR forecasts would likely weigh further on imported inflation projections ahead.
- The bar to another Riksbank cut is high, particularly with the real economy increasingly displaying signs of a recovery. However, the December meeting minutes highlighted that some Board members board remain cognizant of the threat of undershooting the target.
- One structural dynamic presenting risks to recent medium/long-term SEK strength is Sweden’s external balances, where persistent current account surpluses are recycled into the accumulation of foreign assets. The resumption of net portfolio investment outflows in Q2/Q3 suggests the inflows seen in Q1 were a temporary dynamic. It remains to be seen if the improving domestic economic outlook translates into a more balanced sectoral composition, which may mitigate this SEK-negative dynamic.
- Of course, the impact of foreign asset purchases on SEK FX will depend on hedging behaviour. In this light, we await the AP1-4 pension fund annual reports next month.
EGB SYNDICATION: Ireland 10-year mandate
"Ireland has mandated Barclays, BofA Securities, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland, Goodbody, J.P. Morgan and NatWest as joint lead managers for a forthcoming long 10-year RegS benchmark transaction, maturing 18 June 2036. The transaction is expected to be launched and priced in the near future subject to market conditions."
- This is a syndication we pencilled in for this week with a E3-4bln transaction size.
