AUSTRALIA: Liberals Leader Could Face Challenge Amid ONP Surge
The resignation of shadow defence minister Angus Taylor could presage a leadership challenge in the centre-right Liberal Party. Taylor said that Liberal leader Susan Ley was not able to "lead the party, as it needs to be led from here". Ley has not received a formal request from Taylor and his supporters for a special party room meeting for a spill motion (no confidence motion) to be submitted, but this could come as soon as Thursday morning. Taylor's resignation comes just days after the Liberals re-formed the main opposition coalition with the rural conservative National Party after an acrimonious split in mid-January.
- The internal battles within the Coalition come as it finds itself in a position it has not faced before: being challenged from the right. The right-wing populist One Nation Party (ONP), led by outspoken Senator Pauline Hanson, has seen its opinion polling support surge in recent months to the point it has taken the lead over the Coalition in the primary vote share as of February.
- There remain significant hurdles to the ONP challenging Labor to lead the next gov't. The party only has one seat in the 150-member House of Representatives, meaning it does not have a base of representatives to campaign apart from Hanson and recent defector, former Deputy PM and National Senator Barnaby Joyce.
- Nevertheless, the strength of ONP, especially among working-class voters, will be a cause for concern among Labour (at risk of losing power) and the Coalition (at risk of falling into third place).
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, Primary Vote (LHS), % and 5-Poll Moving Average, and 2-Party Preferred Vote (RHS), %
Source: YouGov, Newspoll, Roy Morgan, Redbridge, Essential, DemosAU, Freshwater, Resolve, Fox & Hedgehog, Spectre Strategy, MNI
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Trend Theme Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
- RES 2: 7021.79 0.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 7017.50 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 6967.50 @ 14:22 GMT Jan 12
- SUP 1: 6933.61/6882.33 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support
- SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger
The trend structure in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and today’s move down is considered corrective. Price continues to trade above key support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, a fresh cycle high on Friday reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of the trend would open 7021.79, a Fibonacci projection.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Second Larger Mar'26 30Y Ultra-Bond Buy
- +3,500 WNH6 117-25, buy through 117-23 post time offer at 0912:01ET, DV01 $642,000.
- The ultra-bond contract traders 117-25 last (-15).
EFSF ISSUANCE: Dual Tranche 3/10-year Syndication: Priced
New 3-year Benchmark
- Reoffer: 99.926 to yield 2.400%
- Size: E3bln
- Spread set at MS+5bps (guidance was MS +6bps area)
- Books closed in excess of E18bln (inc E1.3bln JLM interest)
- HR: 94% vs 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ref 99.562 +16.0bp)
- Coupon: 2.375%, Long first
- Maturity: Feb 2, 2029
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAW0
- TOE: 14:03GMT / 15:03CET. FTT immediately
New 10-year Benchmark
- Reoffer: 99.718 to yield 3.158%
- Size: E4bln
- Spread set at MS+30bps (guidance was MS +33bps area)
- Books closed in excess of E37.5bln (inc E2.1bln JLM interest)
- HR: 94% vs 2.90% Feb-36 Bund (ref 100.430 +30.8bp)
- Coupon: 3.125%, Long first
- Maturity: Feb 1, 2036
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAX8
- TOE: 14:00GMT / 15:00CET. FTT immediately
For both:
- Total Size: MNI expected E5-7bln with upside risks. The combined size is therefore the top of our expected range.
- Bookrunners: BARCLAYS (DM/B&D) / DB / GSBE SE
- Settlement: Jan 19, 2026 (T+5)
From market source / MNI colour
