FRANCE: Lecornu Pushes Back On Reappointment Rpts, PS Calls It 'Disinformation'
Les Echos reports : https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/direct-crise-politique-dern ...
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US DATA: NY Fed Consumer Survey: More Evidence Of Low-Hiring Labor Market (2/2)
On the labor market/household finance side of the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, August's findings were relatively steady compared with July, but there were a couple of negative standouts that will add to concerns over the health of the US labor market which still looks best characterized as "low hiring, low firing".
- The main standout was in the category of "Mean probability of finding a job in the next three months if job lost today": this dropped to an all-time survey low 44.9% from 50.7%. The previous low was 46.2%, in 2020. While all demographics (ages, incomes etc) saw a deterioration in August vs July, it was most notable in those educated to high school level or less (plummeting by the most in a single month in survey history, from 51.1% to 36.0%).
- The "macro" question of whether US unemployment will be higher one year from now ticked up (mean probability 39.1% from 37.4%) which is slightly elevated from a historical perspective but below the 44% seen in March/April's tariff uncertainty. Movement various categories were in a slightly softer direction, including: mean probability of leaving job voluntarily, earnings growth expectations, probability of changing primary residence.
- Household income and spending growth expectations and current financial situation metrics were roughly steady on aggregate, though there was an uptick in debt delinquency expectations.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: BLS Survey Revision, 3Y Note Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/09 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.3, 100.5)
- 09/09 1000 BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data
- 09/09 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 09/09 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CNY3)
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Thursday, September 11:
- E2.75-3.25bln of the 2.35% Jan-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005660052)
- E1.25-1.50bln of the 4.00% Nov-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005561888)
A reminder that "the auctions of 7-year BTPs and BTPs with a maturity longer than 10 years, scheduled for the same day will not be held due to the recent issuance through a syndicate."
