FRANCE: Lecornu Pushes Back On Reappointment Rpts, PS Calls It 'Disinformation'
Les Echos reports comments from officials close to caretaker PM Sebastien Lecornu downplaying earlier reports that he could be reappointed as PM amid efforts to avoid snap legislative elections. Les Echos: "Outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu hopes that "rumours and false information" about his possible reappointment, which is the subject of speculation in the press, will cease, his entourage announced on Wednesday afternoon."
- Reports from earlier today suggested that Lecornu could be reappointed as PM amid a nascent deal with the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) that would see the 2023 pension reforms suspended and proposed deficit reduction plans halted in exchange for their support in passing a state budget for 2026.
- PS First Secretary Olivier Faure posted on X in response to the Europe1 story "The Elysée is launching a disinformation operation."
- The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) maintains its stance of demanding fresh legislative elections. RN president Jordan Bardella posted on X, "Macron's supporters are deliberately willing to resort to all sorts of contortions to stay in power. Nothing viable can come out of these backroom deals between parties in the kitchens of Matignon. The only solution is a return to the ballot boxes."
- RN leader in the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen, raised the prospect of Les Republicains (LR) deputies who have not been "totally Macronised" being invited to join a coalition with the RN after an election, should the party fall short of an overall majority. A formal coalition with the far-right may prove too much for the LR mainstream, hence Le Pen's caveated invite.
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US DATA: NY Fed Consumer Survey: More Evidence Of Low-Hiring Labor Market (2/2)
On the labor market/household finance side of the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, August's findings were relatively steady compared with July, but there were a couple of negative standouts that will add to concerns over the health of the US labor market which still looks best characterized as "low hiring, low firing".
- The main standout was in the category of "Mean probability of finding a job in the next three months if job lost today": this dropped to an all-time survey low 44.9% from 50.7%. The previous low was 46.2%, in 2020. While all demographics (ages, incomes etc) saw a deterioration in August vs July, it was most notable in those educated to high school level or less (plummeting by the most in a single month in survey history, from 51.1% to 36.0%).
- The "macro" question of whether US unemployment will be higher one year from now ticked up (mean probability 39.1% from 37.4%) which is slightly elevated from a historical perspective but below the 44% seen in March/April's tariff uncertainty. Movement various categories were in a slightly softer direction, including: mean probability of leaving job voluntarily, earnings growth expectations, probability of changing primary residence.
- Household income and spending growth expectations and current financial situation metrics were roughly steady on aggregate, though there was an uptick in debt delinquency expectations.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: BLS Survey Revision, 3Y Note Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/09 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.3, 100.5)
- 09/09 1000 BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data
- 09/09 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 09/09 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CNY3)
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Thursday, September 11:
- E2.75-3.25bln of the 2.35% Jan-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005660052)
- E1.25-1.50bln of the 4.00% Nov-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005561888)
A reminder that "the auctions of 7-year BTPs and BTPs with a maturity longer than 10 years, scheduled for the same day will not be held due to the recent issuance through a syndicate."
