FRANCE: Le Pen Cannot Stand In Any Snap Election After Court Ruling

The Council of State, France's supreme administrative court, has rejected Marine Le Pen's appeal against her immediate ineligibility to run for political office after she was found guilty of embezzlement in March. The sentence saw the parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) given four years in prison (two suspended), a EUR500k fine, and, most politically relevant: a five-year ban on running for public office. The Council's ruling that the ban is effective immediately means she cannot run in any snap legislative or presidential election. Le Pen's full appeal hearing takes place from 13 Jan-12 Feb 2026.

• This ruling may have less of an immediate electoral impact, given the prospect of a snap election has receded after PM Sebastien Lecornu delivered concessions to the centre-left Socialist Party in his 14 Oct general policy speech.
• Before her sentencing, Le Pen had been almost a certainty to make the second-round run off, and hypothetical polling showed her performing well against some of the most likely candidates from the centre/left.
• With Le Pen's absence confirmed for now, RN President Jordan Bardella (who will be 31 at the time of the next election due by April 2027) is next in line. It may be too early to try and determine Bardella's prospects in a hypothetical second round. Former PM and centre-right Horizons party leader Edouard Philippe, who has stated his intention to run in 2027, could prove his toughest opponent.