JAPAN: LDP Signs Off On Minimal Campaign Ahead Of 4 Oct Leadership Election
The Presidential Election Management Committee of the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) met earlier on 17 Sep to sign off on plans for a truncated election hustings campaign. With the LDP leadership election to be formally called on 22 Sep, and held 12 days later on 4 Oct, the Committee has decided that candidates will speak at just three regional events in the Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka prefectures on 24 Sep, 26 Sep, and 2 Oct respectively. In the 2024 LDP leadership contest eight in-person events were held.
- Political betting markets show Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi as favourite to take over from outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba. Polymarket data shows Koizumi with a 60% implied probability of victory, compared to 34% for former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi trails in a distant third place with 5.3%.
- One of the key issues for LDP members and lawmakers in the election is which candidate can win back conservative voters who have deserted the LDP in favour of the right-wing Sanseito party.
- Koizumi, viewed as more liberal than Takaichi, may have seen his chances improved by endorsement of Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato. Kato was a close ally of the late PM Shinzo Abe, and the prominent conservative becoming Koizumi's campaign chief could win round support from those wavering following Koizumi's poor debate performances in the 2024 contest, which scuppered his campaign.
Chart 1. Political Betting Market Implied Probability of becoming next Japanese PM, %
Source: Polymarket
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EUROZONE DATA: Goods Trade Surplus Continues Downtrend In June
The Euro area goods trade surplus was smaller than expected in June at E7.0bln (cons E14.5bln). The seasonally adjusted equivalent meanwhile fell to just E2.8bln vs E15.6bln in May, the lowest monthly surplus since July 2023. It represents a seeming continuation of the payback seen since the spike in Feb-Mar underpinned by US tariff front-running.
- June's "decline was mainly driven by a drop in the surplus of chemicals and related products, which fell from E4.4bn to E15.1bn", Eurostat comments on the non-SA data (see upper chart).
- In Q2, "euro area exports and imports to non-EA countries fell by 5.9% and 2.4% respectively, compared with the first quarter. Intra-euro area trade fell by 0.3%."
- On a longer-term comparison, in H1, the euro area recorded a goods trade surplus of E93.3bn, an 8.5% Y/Y decline.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain in a Clear Bear Cycle
WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. This sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.1 or +0.16% at $62.9
- Natural Gas down $0.11 or -3.6% at $2.813
- Gold spot up $12.39 or +0.37% at $3348.75
- Copper down $1.3 or -0.29% at $454.25
- Silver up $0.11 or +0.3% at $38.1155
- Platinum down $5.25 or -0.39% at $1336.25
EQUITIES: Dominant Uptrend in E-Mini S&P Remains Intact
A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its latest highs. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5345.89, the 50-day EMA. The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6392.29, the 20-day EMA, and 6267.88, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 336 pts or +0.77% at 43714.31 and the TOPIX ended 13.28 pts higher or +0.43% at 3120.96.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 31.256 pts or +0.85% at 3728.027 and the HANG SENG ended 93.22 pts lower or -0.37% at 25176.85.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 61.13 pts or -0.25% at 24293.87, FTSE 100 higher by 2.98 pts or +0.03% at 9141.26, CAC 40 down 43.27 pts or -0.55% at 7878.33 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 22.73 pts or -0.42% at 5424.76.
- Dow Jones mini down 23 pts or -0.05% at 45014, S&P 500 mini down 6 pts or -0.09% at 6465.25, NASDAQ mini down 19.75 pts or -0.08% at 23783.
