JAPAN: LDP-Komeito May Struggle To Hold Onto Upper House Majority-Poll
The latest seat projection opinion polling ahead of the 20 July election for the House of Councillors shows PM Shigeru Ishiba's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on course to lose a significant number of seats, and potentially for the governing coalition (alongside the Komeito party) to lose its overall majority in the upper chamber of the Japanese National Diet.
- The poll for Mainichi Shimbun, carried out 5-6 July, projects the LDP to win between 34 and 46 of the 124 seats up for election. The House of Councillors has 248 seats in total, with half of the seats up for grabs every three years. In the previous election in which these seats were up, the LDP won 57 seats, meaning even at the higher end of the projection range, the party is on course to lose ground.
- Among the seats not up for election this round, the LDP and Komeito hold a combined 77 seats. As such, if the parties perform at the lower end of the projection range, they would come away with as few as 113 seats, short of the 125 needed for a majority. This would leave the gov't in the minority in both chambers of the Diet and could pose a threat to PM Shigeru Ishiba's position at the head of the LDP.
- The poll shows the right-wing populist Sanseito on course for significant gains, winning a projected 9-17 seats, up from one presently. After a strong performance in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections in June, an increased seat total in the upper chamber would cement the party's status as an opposition force rather than an upstart challenger.
Chart 1. House of Councillors Opinion Poll, Seat Projection
Source: @asiaelects, Mainichi
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.19 @ 15:53 GMT Jun 06
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
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