JAPAN: LDP & Ishin To Continue Coalition Talks On 17th

• The BBDXY has stabilised just above the July 24 low of 1191.55 amid the latest pullback in European equity futures, currently -0.2% at 1192.3. While S&P500 futures have seen a less pronounced pullback than European counterparts, focus will be on US pre-market trading after Reuters reported that Nvidia’s new chip tailored for the Chinese market is being met with only lukewarm demand.
• The USD has been offered since Friday afternoon, seemingly a positioning dynamic ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, where the easing cycle is set to resume with a 25bp cut. The ongoing uncertainty around the Lisa Cook saga (which is now likely to go to the Supreme Court) alongside Stephen Miran’s confirmation as a Fed Governor also present ongoing dollar headwinds.
• USDJPY is -0.4% at 146.85, just off session lows of 146.70. Key short-term support to watch remains 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and highlight a range breakout.
• Alongside broader USD softness, JPY was supported overnight by agricultural minister Koizumi’s intention to run for LDP leader. Finance Minister Kato is set to run his election campaign, providing a more hawkish (with respect to both fiscal and monetary policy) option compared to opinion poll leader Takaichi. 

FFX5/F6 ~4.2K sold at -24.5.

Activity in the front end of the SOFR strip driven by the wider rally in core global FI markets, with SFRZ5 seeing paper pay 96.350-355 on ~23K in recent trade. SFRZ5/H6 spread lifted at the same time.